Originally Posted by
alfaromeo
This is where I disagree. If you ask 100 RJ pilots, 99 will say that they hope that RJ's shrink and mainline grows. Look at their contracts, their jobs really are much worse than ours, they all want to go to mainline.
Focusing on RJ growth right now is akin to focusing on the Soviet menace invading western Europe. It's over. Industry consolidation is here. After CAL/UAL get together then AMR will have to make some move. They will all face the same phenomenon as what happened at Delta. A larger carrier will need larger jets. In case you haven't noticed, RJ's are falling away like flies. They are undergoing massive consolidation now, (probably forced by their parent carriers) because the ones that don't consolidate will die. Comair is shrinking by half and we are hiring. Delta's RJ capacity shrunk 4.4% last quarter and will probably be more than that this quarter.
So if you want to change unions because of the RJ menace, you need to invent a time machine and go back to the 1990's because you are 20 years too late. That problem is over. If you have other reasons to get a new union then discuss that. The dual agenda at National never existed except in webboard warriors minds and even if it did, perestroika has come.
And this is where I disagree. Stagnation in the past decade has forced many at the regionals to become lifers. I came from the regionals and I know many who have been there 10+ years who have resigned themselves to finishing their careers there.
The threat isn't 50-seaters. It's the regional lifers who now want to maximize the size of the aircraft they fly and therefore their paycheck, even if it means at the expense of mainline. And the percentage that want that is greater than 1%, as you seem to imply. Ask the top third at any large regional like Skywest, ASA, ExpressJet, Republic, etc and you will find many who have no intention or hope of moving on and are willing to fight for everything they can get. And since they pay more in dues than a regional newhire trying to build time, their voices will be heard.