Originally Posted by
ebl14
Maybe someone can answer this question for me.
What happens if the JCBA never happens by Nov 15th? Will these lists still be used if the JCBA happens a year from now? Here is my concern... If the JCBA process takes 6 months to a year we will be operating as seperate airlines. As seperate airlines Mesaba will probably still lose thier saabs as previously planned and have to furlough at least 400 pilots. Will those pilots still be integrated with those of us at 9E and 9L who stayed on based on the list that is being put together right now?
Point being, Mesaba as a stand alone airline is most likely to shrink by a large margin if they aren't merged with Colgan who is supposed to grow in the near future with the added Q-400s. So if this JCBA doens't go down as planned there is going to be a very large problem on the horizon.
I do not think Mesaba is in as much doom and gloom as you suggest. Their Saabs are being phased out in increments and it is my understanding that Delta has pushed back the phase out start date (Can Mesaba confirm?)
Plus, isn't Mesaba flows to begin shortly? Wont that offset some of the loss from the Saabs. And all this is assuming that those Saabs can not find new flying in new markets or Delta decided to maybe keep some/all of them. There is a lot to change.
I would not bank on "growth" on the Colgan side as the savior for Mesaba's problems. After these next 5 Q's to finish up the 15 there are no confirmed deliveries for any new aircraft, just unexercised options (15 of which have no interested mainline partner.) Also, Colgan is flying a fleet of aging Saabs that have a death clock ticking on them as well.
There will most likely be some sort of "fence" once the SLI is complete, how long will need to be negotiated. So if the options on future Q's are exercised it will not be as simple as a Mesaba Saab CA moves right on over to a CA slot at Colgan when/if their Saabs go away. All of this will be decided during SLI negotiations.