Originally Posted by
The Juice
I do not think Mesaba is in as much doom and gloom as you suggest. Their Saabs are being phased out in increments and it is my understanding that Delta has pushed back the phase out start date (Can Mesaba confirm?)
Plus, isn't Mesaba flows to begin shortly? Wont that offset some of the loss from the Saabs. And all this is assuming that those Saabs can not find new flying in new markets or Delta decided to maybe keep some/all of them. There is a lot to change.
I would not bank on "growth" on the Colgan side as the savior for Mesaba's problems. After these next 5 Q's to finish up the 15 there are no confirmed deliveries for any new aircraft, just unexercised options (15 of which have no interested mainline partner.) Also, Colgan is flying a fleet of aging Saabs that have a death clock ticking on them as well.
There will most likely be some sort of "fence" once the SLI is complete, how long will need to be negotiated. So if the options on future Q's are exercised it will not be as simple as a Mesaba Saab CA moves right on over to a CA slot at Colgan when/if their Saabs go away. All of this will be decided during SLI negotiations.
As far as I understand, Mesaba will flow 103 pilots up. Why 103 you ask, well I wonder if it has anything to do with the fact that the 103rd guy happens to be the MEC chair... correct me if I've been misinformed.
Anyhow, last I heard the projected number of total XJ pilots without the saabs was 600-700 down from ~1100 now. Maybe the phase out will be slower that first anticipated, but Delta has been clear about thier intention to get rid of the old props. Without movement to the majors plus the small amount of growth from Colgan how are we going to keep from furloughing if we are 400-500 fat? I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade, but I just haven't heard anyone talking about the real possibility of downsizing post-merger.