Maybe I've seen too much to be objective but I don't think there is any way the VLJ industry will succeed. I saw an interview with the CEO of Eclipse aviation the other day. He said, "We only need to sell 550 a year to break even!" WTF! I know they have a backlog of 2500 orders but, seriously, where do they think these aircraft will tie down.

Say you are a rich person with the desire to spend a million on a little jet, where do you live? In or near a bigger city right? Oh sure there are the types with ranches but, for the most part, these tycoons live in the center of action. OK, if you live in the San Francisco bay area, where are you going to keep your jet. San Carlos? (2500 feet and a 20 year waiting list for a tie down), Palo Alto? Same deal. Can you get a spot at Reid Hillview? I doubt it. How about Moffet, I don't know. Maybe that is the only place left. I do know it will not be the most convenient thing to drive an hour or more to get to your little toy.

So you get a coveted spot to tie down your jet. Wouldn't you rather have a hanger? Those are even fewer and harder to get. Now how is Eclipse going to sell over 500 with no place to put them?

Maybe I am totally off base because I come from a crowded area. I suppose there is plenty of room in Texas and Arizona. I just don't think there is the infrastructure to support 500 small jets a year from just one company let alone all the competition.

Thoughts?