Maybe I've seen too much to be objective but I don't think there is any way the VLJ industry will succeed. I saw an interview with the CEO of Eclipse aviation the other day. He said, "We only need to sell 550 a year to break even!" WTF! I know they have a backlog of 2500 orders but, seriously, where do they think these aircraft will tie down.

Say you are a rich person with the desire to spend a million on a little jet, where do you live? In or near a bigger city right? Oh sure there are the types with ranches but, for the most part, these tycoons live in the center of action. OK, if you live in the San Francisco bay area, where are you going to keep your jet. San Carlos? (2500 feet and a 20 year waiting list for a tie down), Palo Alto? Same deal. Can you get a spot at Reid Hillview? I doubt it. How about Moffet, I don't know. Maybe that is the only place left. I do know it will not be the most convenient thing to drive an hour or more to get to your little toy.

So you get a coveted spot to tie down your jet. Wouldn't you rather have a hanger? Those are even fewer and harder to get. Now how is Eclipse going to sell over 500 with no place to put them?

Maybe I am totally off base because I come from a crowded area. I suppose there is plenty of room in Texas and Arizona. I just don't think there is the infrastructure to support 500 small jets a year from just one company let alone all the competition.

Thoughts?

 

I have a neighbor who flys out of BFI, and he had a similar problem with their Falcon 900 and finding space. Turns out they're going to build a seven million dollar hangar to house the jets. Cool thing for them is - they can. However, the guys in the market for the VLJ are going to feel the pinch big time.

Reminds me of a joke.... "How do you make a million dollars in aviation"

You post also reminds me of when I bought a boat that was too large to trailer! I got a great deal on the boat, but the marina fees are killing me.

 

I think the expectation is that many of these jets will be sold to people that currently are flying complex singles and piston twins. They would tend to already have hangars.

The other major segment of the VLJ market will be air taxi. These will roam the country much like fractionals do today and generally won't be "based" anywhere.

Another segment that I don't think many expected could be legitimate corporate flight departments. I just read about a company that operates at least one Global Express, just bought two Eclipses for super efficient short haul work. I could see this becoming a trend, opening up the "company airplane" to lower echelon employees that need to travel a relatively short, but time critical trip.

If I were in the market for one of these things, I'd be seriously considering the Citation Mustang. Cessna already has a serious track record and the maintenance support structure in place. Everyone else is just playing catch-up.

 

That has got to be a great sales point. I think they will have the best chance for success.

 

People (non-pilots) hear about a "cheap" jet, and have a mental image of a Encore, 31A, or Beechjet with a $1 million price tag.
The reality is that the Eclipse is about the size of a BE-58.

It angers me that this BS talk about "VLJs" filling up the sky is raising the talk of user fees that would economically harm my life.

Eclipse has fell short of their claims time after time, even claiming the airplane was "Certified" when it was only preliminary. Cessna has the real deal up and running---but Cessna doesn't preach this stupid crap about flying to the grocery store in a "VLJ" and other BS.
Cessna does not even use the stupid term "VLJ".

 

Mike et al.

Agreed but that's just one of many aspects of the VLJ's impact on aviation.

My biggest concern is how it will effect safety.

Think about all those Doctors,CEO's and other rich folk whom fly for "fun" with alot of dollars and very little sense whizzing around upstairs where I and everyone else is trying to work.

I can read the headlines now.....

SF

 

We like to call the Mustang our "Entry Level Jet".

 

I think Eclipse is overly ambitious to say the least. Any of these " private jet transportation for the common man" plans never materialize because they're always proposed by people in general aviation, who think like aviators, and don't take into account that the vast majority of the public perceives anything smaller than a 737 as being unsafe.

The VLJ concept will not radically change air taxi or fractional operations. Performance wise it's like any 25 year old Citation, just with less fuel burn and a warranty.

The Mustang will probably carve out a TBM-700 like market, for the owner pilots who want 2 engines and a jet. Those who want cabin size will stick to King Airs and PC-12's.

 

Very true. About two months or so ago, I was speaking with a guy on the phone who has plans on starting an air taxi service based here in Naples, FL.

We spoke at length and from what I know of this market, he should be successful at any level of service that he provides.


atp

 

The insurance requirements alone will be enough to deter many from this market. I think that much of the target is the owner/operator replacing a cabin class twin or small turboprop (C90/cheyenne). Most of these aircraft, as mentioned have a limited payload with full fuel. The new VLJ from Piper is expected to be somewhere in the 800lb of pax and bags with full fuel. Hardly a good option for somebody that needs to get across the country with a party of five.

I doubt that these jets will clog the system any more than 172s clog the airspace we use. Like other bizjets VLJ owners will avoid the major metropolitan airports and opt for reliever airports like Peachtree, Palwaukee, etc. Also the operating altitudes will likely be in the mid 20s to low 30s, especially in the single engine models like the D-Jet and new piper model. Likely somewhere in between the turboprop and big jet guys.