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The paper and speech is free, have at it. I've highlighted in bold the parts I think are more pertinent to major airline pilots since this is the major airline forum:



From Aviation Week and Space Technology, January 24/31 2011 page 112

“Pilot shortage” is a thread that has waxed and waned over the last decade, but which has yet to become a reality – except for some unfortunate airlines in high growth markets where demand already outpaces supply.

Raising the retirement age for pilots and cutting fleet capacity during the economic downturn postponed the problem for most airlines, but Boeing and others are warning the day of reckoning is fast approaching.

With the five-year reprieve gained by raising the retirement age to 65 drawing to a close, and capacity growth returning, the pilot-shortage thread level is again being raised – even in the U.S., where hundreds of furloughed flight crew remain to be recalled.

Based on its outlook for global aircraft deliveries, Boeing sees fleet growth and pilot retirements almost doubling the demand for pilots over the next 20 years. Total demand for more than 466,000 pilots is forecast for 2010-29- an average of 23,300 new pilots a year.

The largest growth will be in the Asia-Pacific region, with a requirement for 180,600 pilots – 70,600 of those in China. There is already a growing shortage of pilots in Asia – and in the Middle East, where Boeing forecasts a need for 32,700 pilots in the next 20 years.

Demand in North America and Europe will be unprecedented by recent history standards, with Boeing predicting a need for nearly 97,400 and 94,800 pilots, respectively, in markets that seem ill-prepared to respond.

In the U.S. 37,000 pilots will be needed over next 10 years, rising to 56,000 over the next 14 years, just to replace retirements and not accounting for any fleet expansion. But new-pilot starts are down by 50-80% in the U.S., reaching a 10-year low in 2010 so the pipeline is not being replenished let along expanded.

Reasons include unattractive pay and conditions at the regional airlines, which have traditionally acted as pilot farms for the majors. And those individuals who still want to be pilots now face difficulties obtaining bank financing for training.

Congressional legislation requiring a minimum 1,500 hr. experience, up from 250 hr, will only exacerbate the problem as it will take new pilots 3-4 years, rather than a year, to reach the new target by traditional means.