gloopy

As for the 2 pilot ultra long haul scenario, I don't think that comminucations is the reason at all for 4 pilots versus 2. By that logic we'd already be single pilot ops for domestic flights today.

Ultra long flights need more pilots so that you always have a full crew in case it hits the fan. Communications are a part of that, but a very small part compared to things over all. And again, the question isn't can planes be automated to the point of redundancy necessary to justify less or no crews. I think the answe to that is yes, although not today, and not by a long shot. If a robot blackhawk crashes, some general sniffing brandy in front of an appropriations committee will three way high five some lobbyst who golfs with a congress critter in the district where they build them and order more. Who cares. But some day, maybe in 10-15 years as some have predicted we might begin to see the onset of the level of reliability and redundancy, maybe. But can the plane itself and the entire infrastructure be brought up to those standards for at or below the price of the nation's FO's? Not for generations IMHO.

Even for single pilot ops, pilots still not only die at the wheel but also become incapicated. And again, what are we talking about here but the cost of the nation's FO's. That doesn't cut pilot labor in half either, as FO's make a good bit less than 50% of the total cost of pilot labor anyway. And there's still all the other issues of CRM. Long term we are a good ways away from getting to the point where single pilot 121 ops or half crew ultra long haul ops becomes a reality.

As for the "pilot shortage" that will be a self correcting problem. While the supply line has dwindled, that really isn't that big of a deal. It has dwindled precisely because there has been very little to no hiring the last decade thanks to the economy and age 65. When the dam breaks and every airline is hiring a ton, it won't take very long at all for the CFI pipeline to ramp up and ramp up big time. Students will quickly flood the flight schools big and small, quickly creaating more CFI's and so on, just like every other boom time the industry has seen. Heck in the 50's or 60's airlines hired pilots with PPL's and took it from there. This will be a non event. The only real obstacle is financing the cost, but if there are actually jobs waiting for those who plunk down the cash, the market will find a way to provide financing. The reason financing has been difficult for this particular career field is because of the bleek prospects for obtaining gainful employment and not being able to pay the loan back. Worst case, even with a 1500 TT ATP requirement, airlines and/or college programs will spool up zero time to ATP programs like some have been doing for years. If we do see a pilot hiring boom time, even 6 figure loans will be given out like candy, at least to those who are going to work in fields that can actually repay them. Heck look at all the 529 money, grants and loans we barf at any and every 6 figure arts history degree so kids can take a 4 year break from reality, develop their alcohol additcion and ruin their credit, all with an almost certain zero chance of being able to pay it back but what the heck it's (yet another) entitlement, and they are still getting the money. That part of the problem (pilot shortages) will be 100% self correcting even at the 1500 TT limit (which will probably be reduced anyway but in any case) single or no pilot ops isn't a viable threat for several more decades. Pilot labor is just not that expensive, but dual pilot 121 ops levels of reliability and reduncancy is.