What's the Plan?
 

Right now, ALK seems like a ship without a rudder. They're getting pressured in the north by Delta. They're getting pressured in the South and Hawaii by Southwest.

Every other airline is making big steps in growth. Southwest wants 25% in 3 years. Frontier just ordered 130+ airframes.

What is Angle Lake's plan? I'm not seeing it. All they've hinted at is a mild restructuring and retreating from markets. They're walking away from the premium transcon market. They want to "reinforce" the destination network from SF and LA, but they're way too slow to market and Southwest is going to eat their lunch.

The airline industry is and has been feast and famine. Right now, it's feast time. And Alaska seems dead set on missing this window, losing market share, and squandering the benefits of the acquisition.

Help me feel better about this. Where's the big order?

I'm not holding my breath for any order, much less a big one. Angle Lake is who we thought they were. There is a definite lack of vision on their part. They have bungled up the buyout/merger to boot.

There is no leadership in our management. They are just CPAs and are good with spreadsheets and pinching pennies. That's all they know.

I'm seeing it too. We're getting our butts kicked. Our operation sucks and we are alienating our customers.

Nothing much we can do about it, since they don't value us or our opinions. Just watch this place fall apart. If we're lucky, someone will buy us out and put us out of our misery. That's they only way we can be rid of our ineffectual management team and our BOD, which seems to be out to lunch.

It’s mind boggling how out of touch they are. Everyone else is growing like crazy and we are reducing and losing customers. Yay!

The plan? Simple. Stay as low cost and lean as possible. Mild growth for the next 12-18mo and then... BAM! Another merger, acquisition, buyout, etc. (JB, SW, AA, DL, hell who knows) Point is there's no way we stay competitive in this industry at our current pace without being bought or merging. Just sit back, relax, and enjoy the ride. Go to work, do your job, nothing more, and go back to our families. Stay informed and unified and maybe we can knock out a great CBA in 2020. Or as I mentioned previously, were bought or merge.

Well said.

Just as an observation, Delta appears to be doing REALLY well in ANC. That should scare the Bejesus out of the Anglers.

So who's out of touch? US airline growth is about 4% for 2017 (http://www.iata.org/whatwedo/Documen...s-jun-2017.pdf)

Most of that is airlines just flying bigger airplanes (Southwest and United). (https://www.routesonline.com/news/29...-in-the-world/)

Delta and United might be moving seats on to Alaska's routes--but not much growth in the US.

Sit back and relax. Worry about the things you can control.

I'm unsure how nearly 8% growth annual projected is a "ship without a rudder." And why get into the costly "arms race" of a maintaining dedicated sub-fleet chasing after premium transcons against companies like AA, UA, and DL that benefit from huge corporate agreements? The course AS is plotting isn't as high-yield on a per-customer basis, but it's a MUCH bigger market segment they're going after in transcons.

But part of that is keeping costs low to remain competitive when AA/DL/UA/B6 try to fight with fares that trash yields for everyone.

AS took a knee this past quarter due to the QX fiasco, definitely - but barring that, I doubt there'd be anywhere near the hand-wringing that appears to be going on right now. And lest we forget, PBP is STILL projecting a payout in the 7.5 to 8% range; it may seem low since we've been spoiled by record payouts of over 9% for the past 5 years, but it's still healthy.

Take this one milestone at a time and you'll see things improving. QX is already righting their ship. 12/31 is the last day for Elevate. Then SOC in January, and single PSS on 4/25/18. Along the way, you see the first Airbus leave the paint shop in AS livery, followed by everything in the fleet getting retrofitted into the new interiors.

It's going to be an interesting ride, and I think, a very rewarding one.

Management Troll.