Alaska slowing growth...
 

Today on Yahoo:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alask...132500672.html

An excerpt:

Alaska Air (NYSE: ALK) has experienced severe margin compression over the past several quarters, due to a combination of rising fuel costs, stiff competition, and merger pains following its 2016 acquisition of Virgin America. However, management is laser-focused on rebuilding the company's profitability. Toward that end, Alaska Airlines is set to reduce its growth rate until it starts hitting its margin and return on invested capital goals.

Last quarter, Alaska Airlines began taking concrete steps to align its fleet plan with its new target of 4% annual growth and $750 million of annual capital expenditures for 2019 and 2020. The carrier restructured its orders with Boeing (NYSE: BA), Airbus (NASDAQOTH: EADSY), and Embraer (NYSE: ERJ) to better fit its projected needs.

I have heard through the grapevine that we are losing about $1Million every day. This has less to do with rising fuel prices and more to do with a failing business model. The VX purchase and forced drop of many of our bread and butter codeshare agreements (Delta, American, etc) have been disasterous. Couple that with our providing feed for, and enabling, carriers like Emerates...which the big boys despise and that makes us a prime target to be taken out. I would guess the big boys smell blood in the water and will continue to add pressure. But look on the bright side, Brad and Ben got their huge bonuses for creating this mess.

We made 18mil after tax Q1 check your grapevine

Way to go for a #5 carrier. B6 made $85 million. I’m no math expert, but these numbers are no where close together. 🤔

No one was comparing income....just countering the “sky is falling losing a million dollars a day”.

I wasn’t banging on your comment. I just wanted to point out that even at #5 and buying VX that AS is still struggling to compete.

How much would b6 have made if their pilots were making the same hourly rate as you, had 15% match, and your medical, oh and their FA’s made the same as Ours. You clearly are no math expert!
I will help you out because there is 0% chance you could figure this out on your own. Those 4 improvements would cost b6 roughly 73 million a quarter. No pilot at b6 is happy, please take your math and go and work there.

Say what you want. Those were Q1 results. We are now mid way thru Q2.

Oh look. A super expert and a koolaid drinker. Don’t need to take my math somewhere else. You probably think the VX pilots were the only one winning with the merger too. Pounding sand sounds like the best advice I can give you.

Hey buddy,
Read my statement with a Russian accent and you will find it hilarious. It sounds like this, “Y O U A R E A N I D I O T”

I can’t stop laughing it’s so funny!

Uhm this is why pilots with 10 million in career expectations can end up broke. Learn how to read financial statements, Alaska will make approximately $640 mil in 2018

Oooh. That’s a good one!

Are you suggesting that this statement is NOT true?

It’s ok if you disagree with me. I can’t force you to be right.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MusicPilot https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/i...s/viewpost.gif
You probably think the VX pilots were the only one winning with the merger .


Yep.
I'm losing my base.
I'm losing my seniority.
I'm losing PBS for a lousy bidding system.
I'm losing QOL with inefficient trips.
I'm losing non rev status.

I think if VX'ers are honest with themselves, They always realized that there were only two ways VX would end up. BK or Buyout. That's it. I think your gamble paid off, but large changes were always going to be in your future. At least this is on the Good side of the ledger...BK, not so much.

I would be very cautious throwing judgement around so freely. Alaska's not in a great position at the moment either. To be honest, they look like they are in a far worse position than Virgin was at the time of buyout.

The AS sales model in its current form isn't scalable. You have regional loyalty, and that's it. You don't have the route network of the Big 3. You don't have the national brand loyalty like Southwest. And you don't offer premium services like Jetblue or the former Virgin America. I don't know how AS sells tickets outside of the PNW.

Virgin, on the other hand, could have been the JetBlue of the west. They had a product that was scalable and could have reached niche markets nationwide. To write VX off as an inevitably failed airline from the start is arrogant and ignorant. But I've come to expect nothing less.

I do read the financial statements and have listened to every single quarterly earnings call for the past several years. Let’s put this into perspective, considering Alaska signs my paycheck every month, I have as much of a vested interest in the success of the company as anyone. Let’s hope you are right and I am wrong on this one.

[QUOTE=IamAlaska;2592057]I do read the financial statements and have listened to every single quarterly earnings call for the past several years. Let’s put this into perspective, considering Alaska signs my paycheck every month, I have as much of a vested interest in the success of the company as anyone. Let’s hope you are right and I am wrong on this one.

Consensus Q2 is $1.76 per share
With nearly 30,000 shares of ALK, I really know where the I’s are dotted and T’s are crossed. This stock is poised to explode over the next 36 mos. Do yourself a favor and participate in the espp and buy!

This sir is a clueless rant. You really have no understanding of even the most basic concepts of airline economics. VX lost 300 mil in 10 years. I don’t even know where to start. I do understand your frustration though, change is hard. Your thoughts and beliefs are fabricated from scattered emotions and not solid economic data.

I'd love for you to enlighten me with a point-by-point assessment of how AS sells tickets outside of OR, WA, or AK.
What VX did or didn't do in its infancy is irrelevant. What matters is that it was breathing on its own when the plug was pulled.
Yes, I have a very specific point of view. But from this viewpoint, I don't see how AS survives with all the room they are ceding to SWA in CA and Delta moving into SEA.

I'd love to catch up with you when we're in AA indoc in 5 years. We can debrief our speculations.

Tesla lost $2B last year. Those employees would be lucky if Chrysler bought them.

Seriously dude, you’re better off eating your moldy crew meal and circle jerking in your 737 cockpit than coming out and talking financial sheets and not understanding how much capital kept getting dumped into Virgin. All this while most of your profits came because your group didn’t have a spine to get scope while most of your growth is being flown by RJs.

[QUOTE=OTZeagle1;2592059]You have 30,000 shares.... $1.8 million in a single company? And the one you work for at that? If your financial manager told you that was a good idea, fire him. If it was your own idea - get a financial manager. One who can spell 'diversify.'

Ok what? Huh really
Tesla, I own a Tesla X. I love the car. You think Elon is selling to Chrysler. Your on drugs, be careful you don’t get caught.
It is remarkable what TESLA is building, the solvency of the business plan is still the big unknown, the product however is fantastic. They need to keep raising significant capital which is a concern. The E production needs to increase significantly to drive down cost, and increase revenue. PE is pretty high though, yikes. I would never bet against Elon though. Tell me you are trying to compare TESLA and all if it’s technology to Virgin America. Oh I am laughing to hard now, oh it hurts, are you kidding me. You took a couple of gates, a couple of jets, put stickers on them and sold tickets. Your right the stories are identical. What do you think the intellectual property of Tesla is worth? How about VX, maybe a buck.
Dude buy index funds only, you are clueless, but a romantic! Come back to the big boy table when you are flying turbo fans solely on battery power.

[QUOTE=Excargodog;2592130]I have a net worth of a little more then 7. I feel really good about 1.8 in ALK. Thanks though, talk to you broker, maybe you can get me a pick. Let me guess you just got 10 shares of AAPL at 180. How cute!

[QUOTE=WutFace;2592097]I'd love for you to enlighten me with a point-by-point assessment of how AS sells tickets outside of OR, WA, or AK.
What VX did or didn't do in its infancy is irrelevant. What matters is that it was breathing on its own when the plug was pulled.
Yes, I have a very specific point of view. But from this viewpoint, I don't see how AS survives with all the room they are ceding to SWA in CA and Delta moving into SEA.

I'd love to catch up with you when we're in AA indoc in 5 years. We can debrief our speculations.[/QUOTE

Alaska is doing quite well advancing market share in California. Hitting all the targets set. Alaska is expected to pull roughly 7 and a quarter in 2019 and 8 and a half in 2020. Pretty shady numbers I know for you, an astute business extraordinaire. Ask yourself how many other S&P500 companies are expected to turn similar profit margins over the next 3 years. Never mind let’s go back to the company on life support, taking itty bitty breaths on its own. Great idea! Dude buy Gold!

[QUOTE=WutFace;2592097]I'd love for you to enlighten me with a point-by-point assessment of how AS sells tickets outside of OR, WA, or AK.

Uhm, the Internet. I am almost nervous to ask. Do you know what that is?

Oh its the pilots fault......jesus

Wow
No no no

My point is, I wouldn’t be bragging about profits a company makes built solely on the backs of labor.

[QUOTE=OTZeagle1;2592140]One can't help but wonder what brings you into a crummy little coffee shop like this? -Seinfeld

[QUOTE=LineGrinder400;2592156]Dude,
That ain’t all that much coin. I am still punching a time clock, ain’t I. But I made every penny, nothing was given to me. Put your head down keep driving. Pretend you don’t live in America, you don’t want to surprise yourself and make my little nest egg look like chump change!

You do realize that’s how AS has and still is making their profits right?

if oil prices go up any further don’t you think that would be a loss in the next quarter?

[QUOTE=OTZeagle1;2592159]Punching the time clock in management. Line pilots don't make enough over a career at AS to make that much even if they're investment geniuses.

[QUOTE=Packrat;2592228]You know what’s funny.. I made more then half of that pile while pulling your gear up. See you were so happy being a Captain, you didn’t have to do anything. I had to figure out how to survive, my pay sucked. I had bills to pay two kids and a wife. Well you know what, fear of poverty really paid off for me, even as you gregariously bragged to me about your 185k a year. Life is funny that way my friend, you probably would have had a hard time finding enough scratch to pay my taxes the last three years.

No ALK is in a very strong position, oil would really have skyrocket for a lose in Q2, margin would obviously decrease though.

[QUOTE=OTZeagle1;2592140]Undoubtedly you are financially brilliant. Probably just as financially brilliant as other pilots who have overweighted their retirement with company stock. Like those TWA pilots, and Pan Am, and Branuff and Continental. Oh yes, clearly too bright to need to follow common sense.

That’s apples to oranges. Some percentage yes, but I make 259 my JetBlue friends make 219. My retirement well there is no comparison and the medical at JetBlue is shockingly bad!

[QUOTE=Excargodog;2592288]Fortunate yes, lucky probably, driven for sure. Brilliant no way. Following only the road everyone else was on would have left me with 750k to a mil right now.