WN buying AS?
10-17-2019 | 12:22 AM
#21
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 442
Likes: 0
I heard today, just from a fellow crew member, who knows as much or less than the rest of us, that the 737Max never passed the wind tunnel testing. Some how, the aircraft, by virtue of the big ass engines, was not aerodynamic enough to pass the test?? I don’t even know how it works or what the wind tunnel test proves, or is, or if it’s a certification requirement.
I heard on the news that United or American was planning flights on the max to resume the first of the year, but with the increased scrutiny focused on the FAA because of this self certify, good old boys club attitude, it might be more difficult than originally planned.
I don’t know, I don’t work for an airline that flies the Max. Just sharing what I heard. I like Steve Dickson, (New head of the FAA). He’s a no nonsense guy and if you can be in charge of 14,000 pilots and rarely have a bad word said about you, you’re an exceptional leader. And that’s what we have. Hopefully the Max issues get worked out and those aircraft get back in the air, soon.
I heard on the news that United or American was planning flights on the max to resume the first of the year, but with the increased scrutiny focused on the FAA because of this self certify, good old boys club attitude, it might be more difficult than originally planned.
I don’t know, I don’t work for an airline that flies the Max. Just sharing what I heard. I like Steve Dickson, (New head of the FAA). He’s a no nonsense guy and if you can be in charge of 14,000 pilots and rarely have a bad word said about you, you’re an exceptional leader. And that’s what we have. Hopefully the Max issues get worked out and those aircraft get back in the air, soon.
SD as FAA head? Really doesn't matter. Nothing of his work at Delta shares commonality with running the FAA. This is a desk job were his influence on policy change is about as effective as trying to shoot a flea with a handgun. He does what he's told by either the parent boss, the WH, or top lobbyists. Easy Peasy.
10-17-2019 | 03:07 AM
#22
SDQ Base Chief
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 6,055
Likes: 34
From: 320 CA
DOT has little to do with it, it's DOJ and FTC.
As to the political practicality of an airline merger...
1. Would it result in a merged entity significantly larger than DL or AA (this is a bit nebulous depending on whether you look at revenue or ASMs or even fleet count)?
2. Would it result in a significant monopoly at any big hub or regional market?
If the answer is no, it would likely pass muster with the current administration. #2 could be (and has been) addressed by divesting gates/slots to balance out competition.
Whether it makes business sense is of course a whole 'nother issue. But corporate leaders in general will assume that two smaller companies in the same business can generally achieve cost savings and efficiencies by merging.
I think AS could be acquired by SW, or merge with anyone smaller. I think they could be acquired by UA with west-coast divestitures (not saying that makes sense). Could maybe be acquired by DL, the merged entity would be bigger than AA but not that much bigger.
As to the political practicality of an airline merger...
1. Would it result in a merged entity significantly larger than DL or AA (this is a bit nebulous depending on whether you look at revenue or ASMs or even fleet count)?
2. Would it result in a significant monopoly at any big hub or regional market?
If the answer is no, it would likely pass muster with the current administration. #2 could be (and has been) addressed by divesting gates/slots to balance out competition.
Whether it makes business sense is of course a whole 'nother issue. But corporate leaders in general will assume that two smaller companies in the same business can generally achieve cost savings and efficiencies by merging.
I think AS could be acquired by SW, or merge with anyone smaller. I think they could be acquired by UA with west-coast divestitures (not saying that makes sense). Could maybe be acquired by DL, the merged entity would be bigger than AA but not that much bigger.
10-17-2019 | 06:27 AM
#23
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 44,864
Likes: 658
From: Engines Turn or People Swim
Just to play devil’s advocate for a moment; SW+AS would be significantly larger than any other carrier in terms of domestic US market share. Isn’t that the limit of jurisdiction for the DOJ anyways? Could DL/AA/UA make a complaint this would result in an anti-competitive environment and perhaps they would need to buy a domestic carrier to compete against SW/AS? Interesting to think of...
Even if it were the largest somehow, that's still not a show stopper as long as they are not significantly larger than any other competitor, and does not create market monopoly. West coast is the only issue, AS and SW have no hub overlap. IIRC SW presence is relatively small at all AS hubs.
That's just the DOJ sniff test, not speculating on the business case although they have large fleet commonality. And the bus's IIRC come off lease soon.
10-17-2019 | 06:31 AM
#24
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 44,864
Likes: 658
From: Engines Turn or People Swim
I think DL would be less likely than several other partners. But they could simply agree to divest some SEA gates to get under the DOJ wire. It's been done before. Might have to do that at LAX too, not so sure about that.
10-17-2019 | 12:57 PM
#27
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 44,864
Likes: 658
From: Engines Turn or People Swim
10-21-2019 | 11:23 AM
#28
Line Holder
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 56
Likes: 0
From: 737 FO
10-21-2019 | 04:53 PM
#30
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 44,864
Likes: 658
From: Engines Turn or People Swim
1. Boeing let them down, bigtime.
2. The elephant in the room now is what if the max got grounded AFTER it had replaced many/most/all of the NG's? I think this is a wake-up call for ANY single fleet operator (could happen to the other guys too).
AS is probably not an ideal acquisition target if fleet diversification is the goal, although they have buses, and more bus order positions in hand.
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