Specific reasons why:
1. Management isn't going to agree to it. They like the whipsaw and flexibility. They hold the keys to a merger.
2. The mainline group isn't going to take concessions to get you on board. Nor should they.
3. ALPA will fight you on it. Reference the showdown at the 2000 ALPA BOD meeting. (Were you even born yet?)
4. It's a windfall for the regional, with little in return for the mainline. Difficult to negotiate a deal there.
5. The senior pilots at the regional won't accept a staple. The junior pilots at the mainline won't accept an SLI.

I could go on...

Spent 5 years on B scale. Can you answer why Jetblue flies the 220 which is the same as a 319 for less money. Can you answer why we should. I think what you are saying is buy scope with lower pay rates. Trying to get your logic.

Every current multi-fleet airline in the US has different rates for different planes except for UPS I believe. JetBlue has different rates for different planes (except the 321) because it is industry standard. When JetBlue/B6ALPA negotiated rates for each of their planes, they did so using rates of every other major airline. If you guys get 190/195/220s or whatever new plane, you should negotiate whatever rate you can. If it’s the same as your 737 rate, great. And I never said you should buy scope with anything. But you should have negotiated it long ago. Scope and pay rates are two separate parts of a CBA. Negotiate each however you can to suit your pilot group.

Now, if I had a choice of my airline flying A220s at $10/hr less than 320 rates, vs a regional flying e175s/e190s/a220s for my airline instead, I would take the industry standard $10 lower A220 rates over the outsourcing every time. If you call that buying scope, well, ok. Also, Delta has different rates for their A223-($269) / A319-($274) / B737-700 ($284). But the planes are all roughly the same capacity and capability. You can argue the merits of a singular rate (I’ll probably agree with you for most of it), but my whole point by jumping in this thread isn’t to debate that point, it’s to refute your statement that a lower pay scale for different equipment is a B scale. B scales don’t exist anymore.

jetblue doesn’t operate 319s, only 320s and 321s. Paying different planes different rates based on seating capacity/weight isn’t a b scale, someone who worked under one of all people should understand this. I guess DL airbus pilots are on a b scale because they make less than 737 pilots...and those mad dog drivers were a C scale because they made even less than the 320 pilots 😒😒😒

This discussion is pointless, Alaska Airlines is in the process of returning to an all 737 fleet flown for a single pay rate, there is no second fleet type coming, there likely will be more large RJs flown at Horizon.

I think I get it now. There will always be regional or other companies flying for mainline at a b scale because management recognizes you guys want to be divided. It’s much easier to control you divided and pit you against each other. Even if the pilot group came together and said bring regional flying at regional rates to our pilot group recognizing the power in having the entire pilot group under one union management would never let that happen lol but instead of having that known they can just let the pilots boo it on their own haha. You guys are great.

1. Management isn't going to agree to it. They like the whipsaw and flexibility. They hold the keys to a merger.
The airline industry is only one crash away from this paradigm shift. Once the public realizes that management is hiring highly inexperienced pilots to fly the public to save money, there's no number of airline name changes that will save them.

2. The mainline group isn't going to take concessions to get you on board. Nor should they.
Isn't the whole point that Horizon is flying Alaska's route? Also I have no interest in going to Alaska--especially where I'm at now.

3. ALPA will fight you on it. Reference the showdown at the 2000 ALPA BOD meeting. (Were you even born yet?)
It's now 2021 and we're now starting to see the fruits of these "regional airlines". I think in retrospect B-scale wages would have been smarter, but I could be wrong.

4. It's a windfall for the regional, with little in return for the mainline. Difficult to negotiate a deal there.
There's actually a huge return for the "mainline" pilots.

5. The senior pilots at the regional won't accept a staple. The junior pilots at the mainline won't accept an SLI.
Virgin was technically a regional airline and they got an SLI? If junior pilots could flow back to the "regional" instead of being furloughed they'd accept it.

No it's because you can't put the toothpaste back in the tube without totally unrealistic concessions. Maybe not even then.

You could (with enough concessions) get rid of contract regional feed as contracts expire. But what about WO? If the WO has no flying, it has no value so they can't even be sold off, except maybe in pieces.

Management has been doing that for decades, and the public never cares. The Colgan crash was egregious enough to trigger some change but it wasn't the public behind that... it was the victim's families. Nothing more is changing unless there is another crash or two with really egregious circumstances. The silver lining with slowdowns like covid is all the noobs get to cool their heels and build some flight experience before they take the next step. Hopefully we'll be good for a while.




Then stay there, you knew the rules when you signed up. But don't expect mainline pilots to bend over backwards and make concessions to improve your lot in life.



I don't see it. The cost would be too high. The cap can be put back on the tube (maybe even get rid of OO) for a reasonable price. But putting the toothpaste back in isn't practical... either need to liquidate QX, which would cost management too much up front, or do an SLI which AS ALPA would fight tooth and nail.

VX was not a regional by any stretch, technically or otherwise. They did transcons with large narrowbodies.

VX was never a regional.

What's a large narrowbody? We were doing transcons with the smallest transcon capable narrowbody of all airlines, an A320. United had 757s. AA had 767s and then A321s. JetBlue was using Mint 321s. Delta was using mixtures of 767s and 757s. And correct me if I'm wrong, we were also the first airline to take an A320 across to Hawaii (not 321, I mean 320).



*Though before the pandemic the transcon seating was very generous, eg, 142 seats in a United 757ps, 102 seats in an AA 321T.

VX had 321's too at the end.

And VX had hubs in SFO, LAX and a hub in New York covering JFK, EWR and LGA with pilot, fa and mechs in all 3....
Clearly not a regional unlike the airline that bought them who essentially was contained within one region...

1. Management isn't going to agree to it. They like the whipsaw and flexibility. They hold the keys to a merger.
The airline industry is only one crash away from this paradigm shift. Once the public realizes that management is hiring highly inexperienced pilots to fly the public to save money, there's no number of airline name changes that will save them.
Comair 3272, 1997
Air Midwest 5481, 2003
Pinnacle 3701, 2004
Comair 5191, 2006
Colgan 3407, 2009
None of these crashes "shifted the paradigm". (Nice try to use a big word to sound smart). Colgan 3407 brought us the 1500 hour and an ATP rule, greatly increasing experience at the regionals, negating your experience argument.

2. The mainline group isn't going to take concessions to get you on board. Nor should they.
Isn't the whole point that Horizon is flying Alaska's route? Also I have no interest in going to Alaska--especially where I'm at now.
The point is that Alaska mainline pilots could take the flying back without the Horizon pilots is they wanted to take concessions. What are the Horizon (or any other regional) pilots bringing to the table. None of the regionals "own" their flying, and that's a significant distinction. As to your second point, good for you?

3. ALPA will fight you on it. Reference the showdown at the 2000 ALPA BOD meeting. (Were you even born yet?)
It's now 2021 and we're now starting to see the fruits of these "regional airlines". I think in retrospect B-scale wages would have been smarter, but I could be wrong.
You're wrong. Since you have no idea what I'm talking about, let me give you a little history lesson. In 2000, at the ALPA Board of Directors meeting, a rep from ASA brought a motion to the floor to establish a PID (Policy Implementation Date) which would trigger a single carrier petition, and a 3 way merger of Delta, Comair, and ASA. The Delta Pilots vehemently opposed this, and the Group A pilots hijacked it through floor amendments, then referred it to a committee and killed it. It was never brought up again. The RJDC lawsuit against ALPA, which drug on for years, was the response from the Comair and ASA pilots. That was eventually settled for pennies on the dollar, in exchange for "a seat at the table" in future scope negotiations. As for the B-scale, pilots who have been doing this a lot longer than both of us fought hard to eliminate it, and it would be incredibly selfish and foolish to bring it back now. You would get zero support on that, outside of the regional pilots who would be getting a windfall. The bad precedent would ripple across the industry as mainline management demands B-Scales. Allegiant tried it in 2020 to keep the furloughees on property. We told them to pound sand. It was the right thing to do.

4. It's a windfall for the regional, with little in return for the mainline. Difficult to negotiate a deal there.
There's actually a huge return for the "mainline" pilots.
Actually, there isn't. Alaska Air own the flying. You own nothing. You're a subcontractor. If the mainline pilots wanted to give concessions for scope, to lock down that flying, it would have nothing to do with Horizon. (It would take massive concessions though). It was incredibly short sighted of past MECs not to secure scope in that legacy contract. What is Horizon going to bring to that table to contribute? You own nothing.

5. The senior pilots at the regional won't accept a staple. The junior pilots at the mainline won't accept an SLI.
Virgin was technically a regional airline and they got an SLI? If junior pilots could flow back to the "regional" instead of being furloughed they'd accept it.
Virgin was technically a regional airline? Now you've lost all credibility. Virgin was definitely a mainline carrier. They flew their own code. Do you even understand what that means? They got an SLI because they were on the same level as AS, and a "merger of equals", despite the actual size difference. As for flowbacks, go paruse the AA forums. Flowbacks are popular when times are bad, they die out when times are good. It was also tried in the early 2000s. They were terrible employees when they flowed back, and management hated the program. It increased costs at the regional, and made for major training events. All it did was **** everyone off. Never happen again.

Horizon is no more of an AAG contractor than Alaska air is. QX could be awarded 737's tomorrow and there is nothing Alaska pilots could do about it.

In your words "you own nothing" either.

Mesa already flies 737's. It's probably only a matter of time before the entire domestic air carrier system is contracted out. There is nothing Alaska pilots do that regional pilots can't.

There is no AAG certificate. Alaska Air Group or Air Group is a medium. Alaska Airlines inc. is the 121 certificate holder that flies 321/737. Alaska Airlines inc. is authorized to operate as an airline including selling seats. Alaska Airlines inc has contracted with Horizon Air industries and Skywest Airlines inc for lift. Neither regional airline is set up for or authorized any longer to hold out to the public air transportation. In the past, both airlines actually operated commuter air carriers that code shared with other airlines. No more. So none of the contracted lift, which is all Horizon and Skywest are, bring any equity to a merger. Horizon still has a number of pilots and flight attendants who worked for the old Horizon when it still sold tickets and had reservations etc...They did not make the transition mentally to the new Fee For Departure airline they now work for. I feel for them. They had a great little airline. Horizon made them pretend to be Alaska. All the We are Alaska BS. Took away their identity. The flight attendants have to wear the identical uniform as Alaska and pretend to be Alaska but Horizon pays half as much and puts them in sh”””ty hotels and works the life out of them. All around Sh””ty deal for everyone at Horizon.

I know how regionals work.

Horizon is a certificated 121 flag carrier. There is no 'holding out.' They are authorized to sell tickets just like everyone else, AAG does it for them. AAG owns the reservations systems, ticket sales, Magee, Horizon, everything. Alaska Air Inc, the airline is also a subsidiary of AAG.

If AAG decides to flip the script one day and award flying 737's, airbuses, 747's, you name it at Horizon, there is nothing the Alaska pilots could legally do about it except whine on APC. This isn't the old days where mainline pilots had ATP's and type ratings while the regionals had commercial pilots certificates, there is no difference.

There's a grain of truth here. I think most folks at mainline realize this and are prioritizing scope... a few years behind the big three but better late than never.

Scope would obviously be good for AS ALPA, but it would also be good for management because they will basically get to "sell" scope insurance to the pilots. That will re-direct negotiating capital away from other areas... in exchange for something management probably wasn't going to do in the first place.

Kind of like paying "protection money" to the mob. Guido doesn't really want to break your legs in the first place, but the fact that he could makes you pay up.

A number of cycles back, both groups were in Section 6 at roughly the same time. Some form of this idea was floated, and while the AS ALPA leadership understood the long-term benefit, they were unequivocal in their belief that it would be impossible to sell the idea of spending negotiating capital on something beneficial to Horizon pilots in the short term to their membership. I don't recall what they decided to spend it on instead, only that Kasher took whatever it was and more away shortly thereafter. There's obviously no guarantee that the suits would have been willing to play ball at any price, but the fact that it never got past the "kicking a few ideas around" stage is emblematic of how pilots' focus on near horizons continues to make management's job much easier than it should be.

Ah, this is really embarrassing. So many smart people trying to re-invent the wheel 😂😂😂. Let’s make this really easy, there is a ZERO percent chance AS and QX merge, ZERO. There is a ZERO percent chance of QX getting 195s. We are getting MAX 7s, they will pay the same as a MAX 9s. All you chicken littles keep running around terrified, 747 to QX, 787 to QX... in five years you will have a new conspiracy I am sure. You can all sit around your campfires and tell ghost stories.

This is the first time that I 100% agree with you, the craziest things are possible in this crazy World of ours...

Good, sounds like you guys should be able to secure some solid scope language using minimal negotiating capital to codify it in black and white then if it’s that easy.

3 to 1, 76 seat max, will be in the next contract.

Saw some numbers this morning, this should display the power of single fleet. If we exercise every option, should have a seniority list of 3,250 in 2025. I believe those numbers had some section 25 synergies baked in also. Quick swag, that would have us probably hiring 60 fall of 2023, 150 or so in 2024, and probably 260 in 2025 and 200 in 2026. Pretty dark water we’re staring through, right now that’s best case scenario also. 3,360 in 2026 as it looks right now.

That’s more optimistic than 3,000 pilots by year 3000 ;)

From your February 1st seniority number subtract 351 and that will give you a pretty good idea of your global seniority number end of 2026. Junior CA would be 8-9 range, most likely in that scenario.

Sounds about right, I counted prior to Covid 388 age 65 retirements between 2021-2026.

Any ideas about a worst case situation for the anglers?

AS expects to take every option, there is a little flexibility built in the order, approximately 24 mos... which would push us towards 2028 to 287 aircraft. Good news 2027, 2028, 2029 are large retirement years. If current trends are true, +-260 will go over those three years. So if the options slip 24 mo’s, hiring projections may not as much as one would expect normally. Planning for this summer has been problematic, so planing 6-8 years out of something like this is difficult at best. Just giving everyone an idea. Obviously, I hope it’s way off. All things considered though, I think it will be pretty accurate. Many have asked... I would expect about 90ish E175’s in Alaska colors 2026-2028 timeframe.

Thanks for the insight

While I am not doubting the airplane/fleet predictions, I am reminded how in 2015/2016 everyone was saying starting 2020 and onwards would be the biggest hiring spree known to pilotkind, massive retirements, growth, etc. Then of course Covid came and things went haywire. Who knows what will happen. It does seem that about every 10 yrs there is a “serious” event in the industry. I really hope that Covid is the event for the 2020 decade (as in 2022-2029 go smoothly).

2 slight corrections...112 E-Jets split evenly between the two subcontractors and hiring starting 2024.

I was just trying to give everyone an idea... Fall of 2023 could be a slight stretch, depending on PBS and it’s implementation and scheduling rules. I still think that it is likely. If we are going for my absolute best guess on RJ’s... 95 E175’s😂😂😂 I hope we blow these numbers out of the water, obviously. In a few short months we quickly went from the gold plan to the turd brown version. Honestly, I am most likely giving you best case, but the likely outcome. Thanks for your input 9mm, you may very well end up right. 🍻 6 months around here is difficult, 6 years probably impossible!

22 plus years in.....Like no ever time before, 6 days is hard to guess. Getting so close to the end. I am now able to see what those guys that were close to the end when I started saw. Trying my damndest not to just go in to cruise mode

Delta management said recently there were talks of interviews starting back up end of 2021. All of the LCCs are also talking about interviews and hiring. What you’re saying about hiring in 2024 seems way off from everyone else.

Somewhere between 12.5 percent furlough and hiring in 2024 is the range of guessing around here.

All from one person.

You’re saying that seems inconsistent or just such a wide range that it is meaningless?

I say it’s both...


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We just had a hundred plus basically retire which saved furloughs along with the incentive leaves (thanks to those taking them), so we do not have any retirements for a while, and no growth, so what would drive our need to hire?

199-201 planes summer of 2021, 228-230 summer of 2022, and 230-235 summer of 2023..... and you think we are hiring 😂😂😂. I want some of that smoke! Single fleet and closing SFO will save the company around 350 pilots. That means we are adequately staffed most likely through 2023 . Do you know how many pilots are still out on leaves? More then 200 just on the bus! No one is hiring, most should be smarter then this, most!

Sorry for the random hijack, does anyone know in Crew Access what the aircraft letters stand for? 9EP, 9RP, and 9WP. EP is ETOPS? RP? WP?

If SFO closes without an opening of a Boeing base, LAX will become a real crap show. LAX Boeing is already going to be bad as LAX 320 closes, imagine SFO 320 going away at a similar rate.

The last down cycle we not only furloughed but then it was 4 years until we hired again. This down cycle seems to be just getting underway. It is allowing conversion to a single fleet without the need for a training bubble. The last down cycle we had no ejets to take over for mainline. When they talk about coming out of a down cycle stronger they definitely do not mean bigger in terms of pilots. The increase in asm’s from 320 to 900ER/Max is what they mean by growth.

I disagree, seniority is always the gold standard. If you choose to commute why not go to the largest base with more mainline frequency, more vacation days and more open time? And let’s not forget the emerald children will always have the best flying. LA will find an equilibrium between the locals vs the commuters in the next few years. I think there has been some panic bidding from the bus guys as of lately.