Delta also had over 1900 pilots take permanent early outs as of last September (15%). Couple that with a pretty steady retirement flow still in play and the company will have to hire to get back to even a healthy percentage of prepandemic flying.

Delta has 7 distinct fleet types and 7 Pilot Domiciles....We will be back to a single fleet type and 4 domiciles

What’s panic bidding?

Curious myself. In the past it referred to the senior FO’s who had been bypassing for years bidding captain just ahead of the wheel grinding to a halt. For a Bus fo to take a Boeing fo bid voluntarily is a fools errand. Much better to be displaced as long as they bid enough options for displacement.

In fairness... if there had been no PSPs and no EILs, I'm sure Zeagle would have been right. And you'd be lucky if it wasn't much worse.

Bailing early to avoid getting stuck on reserve at the bottom of a shrinking fleet while your seniors take all the available transitions?

Well here we are. Im still just taking it one day at a time. I’m working my ass off on cancellation make up crediting over 90 hours a month.

I wish the EILs hasn’t gone so senior but here’s the thing: I’m not making wildly inaccurate guesses about what is happening. Nor am I rejoicing in the misfortune that many are experiencing in their careers right now.

One day at a time


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They have made it very hard to write individuals back in private massages.... a timer after every response... I don’t have that kind of time, nor the patience. I am going to try to address all questions openly all at once.

Most FO’s will come back close to the duration of their leaves.
All 73 CA’s back by May
The current 200 or so Airbus CA and FO’s can expect to stay out close to their duration, slightly adjusted for training needs... but close for most. Captain transitions will be needed first, unsure how they will implement that. Probably, CA/CA Airbus to 73 transitions.
Almost positive SFO is closing. Right now company is trying to decide what to do with 110-140 lines of Airbus flying for the next 18mos.... Shrink both bases evenly and eat the additional rsv costs, closing SFO 10/2022 and keeping LAX Airbus open w/ 40ish lines of flying. Or slightly growing LAX Airbus for a year and closing SFO 10/2021. I would expect something out to everyone May to June timeframe. I don’t see scenario where SFO w/ co-terminal stays open but have advocated for it. The total ask at this point in my mind is a HUGE concession.
Just a swag on this one A321/LAX closure, best guess 9-30-2024.
About 30 more SEA CA’s to come back 5/1, pretty sure most SEA FO 9’s back 5/1 also.
Not many if any Airbus pilots will get the 2nd summer

Thoughts on 73 awarded EIL pilots coming back?

With everyone back we would be 320ish fat summer of 2021 in both fleets. 200ish of those are Airbus overages. That leaves us with about a surplus of 120ish Boeing FO’s for this summer. Based on your seniority and duration of your individual leaves, you could probably work backwards and see when your sand runs out of the hour glass. I would put the empty glass at 3/22 737FO and 5/22 320/FO.

Thanks for the response, I know it’s not how recall goes but I wonder if they take into account people whom are on leave but will be transitioning fleets when they come back.

30 more SFO reductions by this summer was the last number I heard.

Just to give everyone an idea
Our old mix of 737/320 and 235 aircraft to our new mix of 235 737/321... Exact same number of airplanes will equate to 23% revenue growth and negative growth for pilots.

I buy most of it 😉
I am pretty sure every B737 pilot is back by the end of summer...
All A320 pilots back by late spring 2022...
230 of the A320 pilots will be transitioning to the B737 over the next 16 months.
Nothing in stone until middle to late spring
SFO is closing

JFK base.... gone
SFO base .... gone
Most West Coast.... gone

Whew..... that’s a buttload of money to pay to get rid of a competitor’s ability to expand. Gotta say though, they did an amazing job spinning it as a “growth” decision at FlightPath.

The only “growth” at Alaska comes in living on less, maximizing your 401K and the Employee Stock Purchase Plan. If you think it’s gonna come via expansion/upgrade, that’s just wishful thinking.

Although I understand your angst, covid changed the plan. Covid changed everyone’s plans. 2020-2023 will be touted as years of 6% growth, just growth that doesn’t benefit you or I. These three years will be used to cross train 485 pilots. Hopefully, the real growth for us will commence again in 2024. The brightest light during this time period will be the fact that everyone was able to keep a paycheck coming in, something that was never true in the past. Relax and enjoy, hopefully better day’s lye ahead.

Another way to look at it. The only employees that even give a thought to pilot seniority list growth are active line pilots on the Alaska pilots seniority list. Everyone else from the board chair to the most junior csa see growth as ASM’s...and Code Shares. The continuing swap of A320/B737-700/800 to B737-900ER/Max is substantial ASM growth and will be advertised as “growth”. ASM growth, base closure and single fleet efficiency will eat up our seniority list for awhile.

10 CA and 10 FO Airbus reductions per month for the next 24 months. There should be quarterly bids with 30 Airbus CA reductions, 30 Airbus FO reductions, resulting in 60 total reductions, this will be the norm for the next 2 years.

SFO closer is fluid, if I had to bet, October 2022.
By the end of 2023 we will have 124 Airbus pilots, all based in LAX.

The mini-coochee says that the remaining A321NEO’s will be used to fly long-haul premium out of SEA...Not sure he wont want them coming home to roost in the Emerald Chity...

I was told a lot of 4 day transcons. LAX-JFK,JFK-SEA, SEA-JFK, JFK-SEA... similar story for BOS, EWR, BWI, IAD, DCA, probably a sprinkle of LAX -SEA, and a DH or two. I don’t see any reasonable chance the 321 is based in SEA.

CLT was supposed to happen this summer, I was told announcement soon, thinking that might have just got pushed to next spring.

You guys read your company emails right?


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rarely. but did catch the rambling one about EIL recalls being canceled for Airbus pilots and extensions being offered to 6 month Airbus EIL’s and some Boeing fo EIL recalls being canceled. Why do you ask?

Anyone see the latest Pulse/Alaskasworld QX news for 2022 in regards to state of Alaska?

This is why when people ask how long it will take to get into the ANC base I tell them a long time.

Or possibly never…


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This is incorrect.

That post was from February, old stuff.