Originally Posted by word302 (Post 3985453)

Maybe, but predicting the future off a single bid is idiotic.

Originally Posted by word302 (Post 3985449)

I would count on 7-8 years and be happy if it ends up being less. Way too many variables right now.

Originally Posted by GoodJet (Post 3985468)

It's one way to look at it. However, it's just as easy to say the same thing about someone who is constantly predicting things getting better in terms of growth, when that growth has never materialized in over 2 years. Don't forget we will reduce SFO and LAX further effective October. That's when it gets really fun.

Originally Posted by Flislow (Post 3985429)

First post here and this seems the most relevant thread for seniority progression.

Been here two years and I think we’ve shrunk since? I’ve move backwards in relative base seniority and am at risk of getting displaced from live in base and having to commute to reserve.

Can anyone put their thumb on a realistic upgrade time from today into any base? New ALPA Seniority tracker tool says on retirements alone, I’d be looking at 2036-37. My time here has been characterized by management kicking the can down the road on hiring promises and I’ve got little to show for the 2 years under my belt. Still on reserve

Originally Posted by word302 (Post 3985476)

Except we are actually hiring and upgrading currently in larger numbers than we have done for the last 2 years (which was 0 for most of that time due to circumstances outside of our control) so one of our predictions is based on reality. Yes SFO and LAX will reduce further, which sucks, but SAN and likely other bases will be growing. It's not all unicorns and rainbows but claiming upgrade time will rise to worse than 13-15 years in the coming years is silly.

Originally Posted by GoodJet (Post 3985494)

We hired 40 in 2025 which covers 55% of our attrition for 2025. There will be 20 less captains on the seniority list in June of 2026 than there were in June of 2025, per bid 2026-06. This is the known data for that year. It’s the only known data for staffing in 2026. The only known data for hiring in 2026 is that classes will end in February per the last pilot call.

“SAN and likely other bases will be growing” is just speculation. There is zero data to support that.

Originally Posted by word302 (Post 3985501)

Do you think you're some kind of master mathematician by stating that not hiring for 18 months put us behind retirements in both seats? Profound.

Originally Posted by GoodJet (Post 3985502)

The important question to ask yourself is why there has been zero effort to catch up. Until there is, there is no growth and an ever-increasing upgrade time.

Originally Posted by word302 (Post 3985503)

Hahahaha. We are hiring and upgrading. Upgrade times have dropped with each bid this year as expected by everyone except you. You are not a serious person.

Originally Posted by GoodJet (Post 3985494)

We hired 40 in 2025 which covers 55% of our attrition for 2025. There will be 20 less captains on the seniority list in June of 2026 than there were in June of 2025, per bid 2026-06. This is the known data for that year. It’s the only known data for staffing in 2026. The only known data for hiring in 2026 is that classes will end in February per the last pilot call.

“SAN and likely other bases will be growing” is just speculation. There is zero data to support that.