First to phase out
 

Which of these are first to phase out?

737-700/800/900

717

321

or some combination of both

My completely uneducated guess is 717 based solely on operational costs. They's probably buy more 700s if they could.

They are telling recurrent classes that the existing 800ng will be replacing the 700 in SE and the 717 inter island. Timeline is fuzzy, but neither the 717 or the 700 have much economic life left. The 900ER aren't that old and should be around for quite a while.

Depends.

If we can get deliveries, it will be the 321. I think it is very possible and viable for the company to dump the 717 and have the current route structure 737s cover that flying without having to replace airframes 1:1. It will be a race to see whether the 321 or 717 will go away first. Honestly, the 321 could replace the 717s. Those airframes are so old, and such MX hogs.

Tell us you know nothing about interisland flying, without telling us you know nothing about interisland flying.

They put a 330 sim and 787 sim in Ben’s circle jerk building, along with a few 737. I think you know what’s gonna happen.

Tell us you know nothing about airlines getting bought and route structures getting gutted without telling us you know nothing about airlines being bought and route structures getting gutted.

AS can absolutely adopt a similar model to SWA with regard to mainland aircraft flying in, and flying between the islands before it is sent back to the mainland.

If anyone thinks some shiny new airplane is going to do the island flying over a 737, I have some beachfront property in Iowa to sell you.

Don’t worry there’s tons of pilots there that will help him lol.

I don't think anybody thinks that at this point. Management has telegraphed intentions, plus there's really no airplane out there which brings enough niche optimization to make it worth carrying an additional type.

The only additional type (beyond 737) which management doesn't hate and resent is the 787.

So it will be MAX8, flowed in and out via ETOPS to dilute engine cycles, with some, many, or most crews for island flying based on the islands.

That last isn't an absolute but I think it's still a but early for them to start to gutting the HNL crew base. Also from a pilot retention perspective it would probably behoove them top let pilots who want to be based on the islands, be based there. They have some flexibility there, depending on pilot demographics.

The chances of that happening are 100%. Now I don't think that takes away the need for pilot basing in the islands, but having an HNL 717 base change to some aircraft that only the islands operate is zero. I will eat my uniform hat if it is anything but a 737. Less daily frequency of flights to carry the same amount of people on those inter-island flights, more aircraft utilization, reducing the fleet types at the airline, and AS can buy them for a song. You don't dedicate the airframes to the islands, so you don't have the long-term issues with NEO/MAX engine issues. Easy to have fold into the islands from the mainland, have mainland crews fly them in, go on rest to fly them home the next day, with HNL crews doing some laps between the islands. I would be absolutely shocked if this didn't happen exactly like I describe.

I got some bad news with AS Im have now looks at sfo pre and post virgin

The only thing I'll disagree on a bit is the dedicated interisland fleet. It's going to be 737s, I'd guess ng's, and they're going to be painted in Hawaiian colors. Find your highest time low cycle 800s, send them to the islands and let them live the rest of their lives out there. No max engine issues. Then a few max 9s to replace the 321NEO with some being painted Hawaiian colors but most in Alaska paint. Most HNL-West Coast done by HNL based pilots, West Coast pilots take care of the outer Island overnights. That's what my money would be on(I wouldn't put a lot of money on it though, until airplanes actually start leaving it's all just a fun guessing game)

I like a curveball. I can see that happening too.

Where I would push back is that I actually think it is an advantage to fold the fleet into the larger network. Dedicated fleets offer vulnerabilities that can be eliminated if it is just any ETOPS 737 doing it. An AD affecting only NG, or a lack of spares, could be problematic.

I just hope AS does it right and keeps the spirit of inter-island flying, as close to what it is, as possible. I get having to streamline fleets, increase utilization, and cut the fat, but I want to see the HNL base stay and grow for pilots, and I want to see that unique flying stay unique. I still think a 737 is going to be doing it 100%.

Jesus tap dancing Christ, who cares??? The company will make a decision when they fell like it. Why are we trying to predict it? Just do your job and wait for them to make the decision you have no ability to influence.

Why are you getting upset at others spitballing for fun? Go touch some grass man.

because it is stupid as hell. I touched grass, dirt and rocks today. Lot of landscaping work to do. Spitballing what the company might do is still stupid. It’s science.

Yeah, I don't care, literally at all. It is a topic on a forum, because that's how forums work...

Wow, and yet you came and logged on to APC to tell everyone. How.... Rad....

You missed my point entirely, and the long storied history of interisland flying since the dawn of the jet age.

It would be a colossal failure to use a NEO or MAX to fully replace 717 flying, and you can’t keep the frequency required using the SWA model.

Go listen to your CEO’s one requirement for the 717 replacement aircraft at the JP Morgan event last week.

Yes, I agree it will VERY likely be a 737 variant that replaces the 717 but I will shocked if it’s a MAX anything. My money is also on low cycle Ng 700’s or 800’s.

I don’t think low cycle 700s even exist.

*insert pawnstar meme*
Sorry, best I can do is some clapped out 800NGs.

Because as Alaska pilots like to talk about Amazon, this matters to HAL pilots. It affects us. HNL 787 displacements will affect HAL pilots, not Alaska pilots too. Its also just something to do, to a degree.

Then how did SFO become the most junior upgrade?

Because it was the highest commuter base. Although this will ebb and flow over the years.

So you think AS is just gonna upgage to an 800 and keep the frequency the same?

I would guess slightly less frequency, unless the flights are full. Or the fares support higher freq with lower loads, and customers *really* want the frequency.

Last week's management pep talk at recurrent said exactly that. Existing 800NG will replace the 717 and 700 flying as they are retired.

I think it’s been said before anyone that thinks 737 won’t do interisland I have some bad news

ben Did say the NEOs get a better RASM than the 737 so as long as they need the ASM I think NEOs still around till they can swap ASM without reducing them or a down turn

Could be an interim measure.

But the 800s are not spring chickens, and have done hard duty in the SE. Not sure how long they can keep them going economically.

It's replacing a 15 year old iPhone with a 10 year old iPhone.

There us bo way frequency stays the same on those routes with 737s but luckily they only need what, 20 airframes? Find the 20 lowest time/cycle 800s and put them on until they time out, then what?

This is the question HAL has been battling for a decade. There is no current production aircraft that can handle interisland. If they can use Ng’s for another decade then they can be replaced with the sea gliders we got coming.

MAXs can absolutely do this job if these airframes are woven into the overall network. That would take fewer airframes overall (the current 717 fleet is 17), so let's say the flying could be done with maybe 10 airframes. You can weave 10 737s through the islands and have them enter and exit where they aren't dedicated to the island, and shorten the life of these MAX engines. There are no non NEO/MAX engined aircraft being made, so this is going to be something to live with unless the company gets another aircraft type like a 175 or a Q400, and I don't see that happening. For one, Embraer is all cycle limited, so that puts more of a handicap on aircraft than a MAX engine would, and the Q, I just don't see happening.

It’s too bad Embraer cancelled their turboprop project. A combination of mainline narrow bodies and turbo props could keep a good amount of frequency while not dumping too much capacity into the system.

Yea, even more ironic is that the Q would be a FANTASTIC inter-island bird, and we got rid of them all lol. A 76 seat turboprop would be great for the islands.

q can’t fit much cargo pit could barley fit a full boat worth of bags during non ski season, during ski season we were stuffing bags in the cabin to fit all the skis, great for quick turns and frequency but won’t be able to move any cargo, can barley fit 76 people’s worth of bags.

over head bins are too small so basically anything that’s not a small suit case or back back has to go in the pit
flew the Q for 5 years that’s why the Q base in ANC failed could not fit all the pax checked bags in Alaska and 0 cargo can be shipped on them. No belly stowage small Pit by the tail

I don’t think it would do well with interisland due to my assuming we also make money on shipping cargo between the islands

Does the 717 hold a lot of cargo? I honestly don't know.

More than an RJ. RJ's (and commuter props) basically just have capacity for some pax checked bags.

Start adding sandbags for CG and some RJs end up leaving checked bags behind. Or pax, if the airline prefers that (some do).

Apparently longboards are important too.

Island Air failed for a bunch of reasons, but one of them was switching to the Q (and then back to the ATR when it didn't work).

Surfboards and golf clubs are very important, and they don’t fit in an RJ or a turbo prop.

This! Even if you used the correct turboprop, they don’t have the cargo capacity, and there isn’t the gate space for the increased number of aircraft required to replace the 717’s.

Aloha stopped flying Ng’s interisland, and ended up only using them on mainland routes because of engine issues.

At least it sounds like Minnicucci understands the engine issue.