STILL GROUNDED

With the disclaimer that I know anything can and most likely will happen I'm not new to the industry and realize nothing is a given. That said I am not privy to investor calls or anyone deep in the know so I am hoping someone could offer some insight on some questions.

I am currently at an airline that transitioned to one fleet recently. Attrition took care of the over-staffing that comes with this. I recently asked someone at Allegiant about attrition and was told they loose 6-8 pilots a month. Can anyone confirm or deny that?

Also told Airbuses are coming on a one for one basis replacing the 80's. With that I was told you'll be out of the 80's late 2018-maybe 19 due to an AD being due on them in 2020. But if only taking 1 bus a month, the math to replace 40 MD 80s obviously is not adding up.

If this is the case you're taking 18-24 more buses and doing away with 40+ mad dogs. I'd say I'm over thinking this but seriously considering a commitment and the day trip lifestyle. Just rather not be holding the furlough flag come 2020 after I've picked up and moved.

Thanks in advance.

JustWatching

The MD80's leaving have nothing to do with an AD. It's because they're old and unreliable. 2020 compliance is for ADSB and it's a non issue. Very inexpensive to accomplish and in fact, a number of the 80s are already compliant.

We're growing..... we're not overstuffed for our busy months and in fact, we're understaffed for those months.

skydisaster

We are not losing 6-8 a month. We have averaged 3-4 a month for the last 6 months. We will be taking airplanes faster than one a month in 2018. We will initially end up with less ABs than we have MD80s, but not by a lot. We also fly the ABs more and the staffing ratios are not the same. We do have extra staff to cover the transition but that's only because the companies staffing model is understaffed. The company repeatedly says that we will slow growth during the transition but new routes seam to appear like clockwork weather we have the airplanes and pilots to fly them or not.


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dutch rudder

Credible source said attrition is 3% a year. With our current pilot group, that's 26 per year, or 2-3 per month.

ecam

You think too much.

I say worry about getting hired before you worry about getting furloughed. it's not as easy to get hired here as it used to be. Get hired and only then do you have a decision to make.

But with that said, I see allegiant as among the least likely to furlough if the world falls apart in the next few years. We have a huge cash stockpile, extremely low operating costs, little or no international exposure, and a virtual monopoly where we fly. We also survived the last few downturns quite well.

tom11011

Attrition is a matter of seniority. I'm a fairly senior FO for only being here two years. Attrition for me is only 1 per month. Most of the attrition is off the bottom of the list if the numbers reported in this post are accurate.

STILL GROUNDED

I've checked that box, which is why I'm having a decision to make. Thanks

BlueSkiesAhead

While it's impossible to predict the future, I wouldn't worry about the furlough if I were you. There's no way that they are going to hire a ton of people just to get through a transition period, and then dump them on the street when it's done. Every fleet forecast that I've seen shows us having more total airplanes after the transition is completed than we had before it began. Could something drastic happen and you end up furloughed down the line? Of course, but that applies to anyone and anywhere. Make your decision based off of how you think you will fit in with this company and how they operate.

That's my 2 cents. Take it for what it's worth.

jegermeister

Having been furloughed from a company that was supposed to be furlough proof, I understand your concern. As stated by others thought, I believe the threat of furlough is quite low. According to management, we are over staffed. But that is coming from a company that prefers to run an under staffed operation. This past summer showed how thin the staffing model is during high demand.

If you reference the investor presentation on the company website, they are forecasting 110 airplanes in 2020. Combine that with an increased utilization of airplanes, and I believe you'll see steady hiring for the foreseeable future.

I also believe we'll see an economic downturn in the next couple of years. I can't help believe that wouldn't slow growth. But I don't believe it would cause us to retract. If anything people will be more price concise. Which would help our model.


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STILL GROUNDED

Thanks Guys.

I wasn't looking for any "fool proof promises" just opinions. I appreciate them.