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-   -   Future growth / Upgrade Times (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/allegiant/114326-future-growth-upgrade-times.html)

havick206 06-11-2018 01:10 PM

Future growth / Upgrade Times
 
Hi,

Iím currently upgrading at an AA wholly owned, and looking into options outside of the flow.

A couple of friends that fly for Allegiant told me that hiring should ramp up again in Oct this year at roughly 40/month and the plan is to increase the pilot group to nearly double by 2020. Any truth to this?

Iíd be happy with Allegiant as a final career place if in the short term a quick upgrade is a reality. Iíd be happy to take any base for upgrade initially and then eventually move to OAK once I can hold it as CA.

For me I it doesnít make sense to leave my flow to AA unless an upgrade is realistic within 12-14months of being hired.

Any thoughts or other input would be appreciated on projections of growth and uograde times.

Captainbfv 06-11-2018 01:42 PM

Iíll bite....

Ok, so if youíre close to upgrading at a AA regional feeder with a flow through, then that means youíll probably flow to AA (pending no industry hiccups) within 6+ years.

Right now because weíre not hiring (per say) the upgrade at Allegiant is 3 to 4 years.

Itís hard to say how quick the upgrade will be until the fleet transition is over. The reason I say that is because once the transition is finalized we (current pilots) will have a clearer picture of what direction the company wants to go.

Iíve been here two years and I bc of my background I plan on worst case. Worst case for me is upgrade in 4 years, best case is 2 more years.

Realistically speaking unless we add more airplanes to the fleet (which seems like thatís the plan) then upgrade could be about 2 to 3 years.

Hereís my advice tho...

Youíre now looking to upgrade at this regional, which means if you work hard enough you might break 6 figures. As a second year FO here you should be able to break 6 figures.

If thatís not good enough then you can roll the dice and hope for the best until you flow (6-ish years I would assume). By then IF all goes well you should already be a captain here if youíre hired on the first wave.

In other words you need to pick, either roll the dice with Allegiant and make descent money and upgrade in 2 to 4 years, or roll the dice for the flow and make ok money at the regional waiting for the flow and then go to AA or find that you got stuck at a regional. Good luck


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Captainbfv 06-11-2018 01:51 PM

FYI, I was at eagle back in 2007. If I wouldíve stayed I would have flowed already most likely. Yet now Iím here and really enjoying the job, home every day and hoping for the best... things are looking great here IMHO.

You have to decide what you want long term...
reach the ďLegacy dreamĒ, go on 4+ day trips, upgrade in 15+ years or go to Allegiant, hold Oakland pretty quick (junior base), be home every night, and possibly upgrade in under 5 years.


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havick206 06-11-2018 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captainbfv (Post 2612430)
Iíll bite....

Ok, so if youíre close to upgrading at a AA regional feeder with a flow through, then that means youíll probably flow to AA (pending no industry hiccups) within 6+ years.

Right now because weíre not hiring (per say) the upgrade at Allegiant is 3 to 4 years.

Itís hard to say how quick the upgrade will be until the fleet transition is over. The reason I say that is because once the transition is finalized we (current pilots) will have a clearer picture of what direction the company wants to go.

Iíve been here two years and I bc of my background I plan on worst case. Worst case for me is upgrade in 4 years, best case is 2 more years.

Realistically speaking unless we add more airplanes to the fleet (which seems like thatís the plan) then upgrade could be about 2 to 3 years.

Hereís my advice tho...

Youíre now looking to upgrade at this regional, which means if you work hard enough you might break 6 figures. As a second year FO here you should be able to break 6 figures.

If thatís not good enough then you can roll the dice and hope for the best until you flow (6-ish years I would assume). By then IF all goes well you should already be a captain here if youíre hired on the first wave.

In other words you need to pick, either roll the dice with Allegiant and make descent money and upgrade in 2 to 4 years, or roll the dice for the flow and make ok money at the regional waiting for the flow and then go to AA or find that you got stuck at a regional. Good luck


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Thanks. Iíve been here over 18 months and flew my 1000 for upgrade (not my first CA gig, just my first in 121 world) in a year, so willing to keep hustling. That puts my flow date earlyish 2022 for now to AA.

All that said I never had my heart set on a legacy and always planned to move to the SF area long term and mostly days trips would be nice.

The clincher for me is the supposed growth and if that will translate to a relative short upgrade. I donít mind shifting around bases the first 2 years and eventually settle in to OAK long term.

I donít mean to come across as entitled either, just weighing up my options before Iím in too deep here and also miss a hiring wave at allegiant.

All in all I feel well placed either way, just seeing if the gamble of a quick-ish upgrade will pay off.

Captainbfv 06-11-2018 02:50 PM

I hear ya. Upgrade is important, but I figure by you being an FO for 18 months and upgrading fairly quickly youíre trying to find the place that will offer the same type of fast movement.

But like many ďveteransĒ in the industry I can tell you itís hard to predict or even tell you something thatíll sweeten your ear to make a decision.

If the Bay Area is your goal then look for airlines that have bases there. 4 years to flow to AA doesnít seem to bad either. Every/any decision in this industry is a roll of the dice.

I chose to hang my hat here for a reason, and whatever happens here Iím in. Hopefully upgrade will come sooner rather than later, if it doesnít Iíll be happy making good money in the right seat.
Just make a list of pros and cons and make a choice based on the info you have at this point in time



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dawgdriver 06-11-2018 04:58 PM

2 priorities of seasoned legacy veterans: 1) schedules. 2) money. Upgrading generally falls further down the list for a variety of reasons.

Most could care less which seat they occupy so long as those 2 priorities are addressed. Live where you want, fly the schedules you want, make decent coin. It's why you'll find so many grizzled old 3-strippers at the legacies. FOs can make more in a wide body, with far better schedules, trips, lifestyle etc than a sweaty, stressed out narrow body captain flying 3-4 legs a day in crappy domestic routes. Some believe the captain sets the tone but at the majors and legacies it's not really the case. If there's an a$$ in the fight deck it sucks regardless of where you sit. Many cases of FOs telling captains where to go. It's a job, the romance is over, and the FAs don't laugh at captain jokes either.

If you go to allegiant, do it for what they have to offer. Great schedules, Good equipment, great bases. Upgrades are an elusive target which change dramatically so I would avoid that as a primary decision factor.

You are in a great place and time in this profession. You can pick where you want to go and stand a fairly good chance of getting there so understanding what will work best for you should be the first step.

havick206 06-11-2018 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dawgdriver (Post 2612536)
2 priorities of seasoned legacy veterans: 1) schedules. 2) money. Upgrading generally falls further down the list for a variety of reasons.

Most could care less which seat they occupy so long as those 2 priorities are addressed. Live where you want, fly the schedules you want, make decent coin. It's why you'll find so many grizzled old 3-strippers at the legacies. FOs can make more in a wide body, with far better schedules, trips, lifestyle etc than a sweaty, stressed out narrow body captain flying 3-4 legs a day in crappy domestic routes. Some believe the captain sets the tone but at the majors and legacies it's not really the case. If there's an a$$ in the fight deck it sucks regardless of where you sit. Many cases of FOs telling captains where to go. It's a job, the romance is over, and the FAs don't laugh at captain jokes either.

If you go to allegiant, do it for what they have to offer. Great schedules, Good equipment, great bases. Upgrades are an elusive target which change dramatically so I would avoid that as a primary decision factor.

You are in a great place and time in this profession. You can pick where you want to go and stand a fairly good chance of getting there so understanding what will work best for you should be the first step.

I hear what youíre saying and agree with all points.

The only difference in this case is that at Allegiant CA=money as there are no long haul widebody aircraft there. Thatís why it factors heavily on a decision to jump to Allegiant, amongst a lot of other factors based on my own personal situation.

For me I could care less which seat Iím in. It all comes down to money earned over the next 10 years for me and location.

tyler durden 06-11-2018 06:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by havick206 (Post 2612550)
I hear what you’re saying and agree with all points.

The only difference in this case is that at Allegiant CA=money as there are no long haul widebody aircraft there. That’s why it factors heavily on a decision to jump to Allegiant, amongst a lot of other factors based on my own personal situation.

For me I could care less which seat I’m in. It all comes down to money earned over the next 10 years for me and location.

Yes, on straight comparison captains make more cheddar, but realize there are FOs that make more in their W2 on SAME equipment as the guy sitting to their left. Growth and retirements have made the typical 5 year FO these days fairly senior and can therefor access a lot more premium overtime than junior captains. Figure the typical 5 year FO making 70% of captains pay. Why upgrade to get a 30% increase when you can often snag 50% to 100% more hourly, with better flexibility than a junior captain? It's why so many FOs bypass upgrade for years, until they have the same flexibility and overtime opportunities. Food for thought. Granted, that argument goes away once said captain becomes senior, but that's decades away at legacies.

Allegiant is a great airline for certain people, but if money is your primary goal, you may want to do some research. The money is in the work rules, so make sure to compare contracts. Ie, Assuming you upgrade to Captain at Allegiant in 5 years, you will be at $186/hour; figuring 90-95 hours per month you'll be in the $210 - $220K range per year. Not bad, but looking at the big 4, you'll find the hourly rate for 5 year FOs to be close to that, but they can easily make a LOT more because of contractual rigs. It only gets better from there.

Money being the driver, is there a reason you're not targeting the legacies? Flood gates are opening everywhere so you can be choosy. You mentioned lack of wide bodies at Allegiant, why not go elsewhere? FO's are getting WB right out of initial training at FedEx, within 2-3 years at UAL, quick NB upgrades at DAL, and second year SWA FOs doing 130-150 trips per month. There's a thread on here on W-2s that is (mostly) an interesting and enlightening read.

Apologies if I'm telling you what you already know, it just seems you might be overlooking some important details. Hope the helps.

9easy 06-11-2018 08:50 PM

I would not come to Allegiant with Oakland base as my main reason. It's the smallest base with horrible schedules and has never grown, minus a recently added flight or two. Could it grow? Maybe. Could it close down or stagnate for 5 years, just as likely.

AA is a much better career but if you had to choose between a 2019 DOH at Allegiant or a late 2022 DOH at AA that may or may not happen, it's hard to say what would be better.

ecam 06-12-2018 05:57 AM

One thing to consider about Allegiant is that people above a certain seniority level rarely leave until retirement. So even if you upgrade early, you could find yourself on reserve and poor QOL for a long time. As said above, many of our senior FOs make more than the junior CAs and have a rock star QOL. It's common for these guys to credit 100 hours with 17 days off in a base with good schedules (long legs and lots of premium trips). IWA comes to mind.

I guess your bottom line should be whether you want to make big money over the course of your career at a legacy but be gone all the time, or make ok money and be home every night (for now… there is no guarantee we will stay that way). If you're young (below 40) it might be batter to choose the flow to AA because you will make millions more over the course of your career. Plus, a senior wide body FO at a legacy can easily make AAY CA pay. With room to grow. But if you're sick of travel, or have a family, this might be a good choice.


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