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Old 06-28-2017, 02:36 PM
  #171  
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Originally Posted by Al Czervik View Post
What's it going to take to change the mindset at this place from "that's the way it's been forever and wait till they come to the 777/787" to "let's fix our contract so that changes?"
Those retirements Sliceback has been advertising.
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Old 06-28-2017, 04:32 PM
  #172  
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Originally Posted by Name User View Post
Not really. It was last year or year prior the management made that prediction. It would average about 3%/yr. They were, I think, double that in the last 12 months as they add flights out of DAL. They are also adding Mexico and Latin America flying as well.
Is mgt talking a 50% increase in pilot manning? Or capacity(ASM)?

In the last 5 yrs SW ASM has grown by 20%. Pilot corps size is listed as 5% bigger.
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Old 06-28-2017, 07:36 PM
  #173  
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Originally Posted by Al Czervik View Post
What's it going to take to change the mindset at this place from "that's the way it's been forever and wait till they come to the 777/787" to "let's fix our contract so that changes?"
That is not what I meant. I don't like it either. It just sounds like people think it is a new thing. Just stating it has been around a long time.

LOS, fix minimum day, and LTD are at the top of the list for things to fix. TTS and PBS tweaks are needed too. I think we can get some of these before 2019. We'll see. Until then we will all be working too many days.
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Old 06-29-2017, 10:06 AM
  #174  
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Originally Posted by jcountry View Post
This is very true.

They are maximizing the efficiency of the whole system with such crappy work rules. Everyone works more and that equals fewer pilots needed. I would bet we would need at least 1000 more pilots if we just had work rules equivalent to an average regional.

Certainly some bases will be eliminated, and that will cost more potential jobs. I forsee about half the bases in the northeast closed eventually. These closures will definitely put a dent in projections.
Yep, time for a reality check. Certainly the task of merging two carriers is big and complicated. I don't think they even started to realign flying yet. Guessing another two years given their current pace. While hopefully not a shrinkage of flying IMO projected growth patterns expected on this forum are to say the least exaggerated. Movement from retirements absolutely. Growth?
Please show me where and how. The numbers just do not support it.
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Old 06-29-2017, 12:21 PM
  #175  
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DOT Form 41 show AA pilot job totals up 5.5% 2011-2016.

APA's data shows an increase of 6.6% Sep 2011- Sep 2015 on the LAA side.

A different APA chart shows a gain of 4.1%

Last edited by Sliceback; 06-29-2017 at 12:27 PM. Reason: Added - a different...
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Old 06-29-2017, 03:26 PM
  #176  
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Originally Posted by Sliceback View Post
DOT Form 41 show AA pilot job totals up 5.5% 2011-2016.

APA's data shows an increase of 6.6% Sep 2011- Sep 2015 on the LAA side.

A different APA chart shows a gain of 4.1%
How much of that is to keep the perpetual training bubble (from increased hiring) inflated?
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Old 06-29-2017, 07:08 PM
  #177  
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That's a great question. I'll see if I can come up with an estimate.

The training bubble also applies to the other Legacy airlines during an expansion or retirement cycle.
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Old 06-30-2017, 05:30 AM
  #178  
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Slice,

Did you have a breakdown of retirements by base? I thought I remember you posting that in one of the threads. Just wanted to make sure before I went digging for it.

Thanks for all the work on that stuff!
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Old 06-30-2017, 06:59 AM
  #179  
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Originally Posted by nimslow View Post
Slice,

Did you have a breakdown of retirements by base? I thought I remember you posting that in one of the threads. Just wanted to make sure before I went digging for it.

Thanks for all the work on that stuff!
I don't know of a breakdown of retirements by base. What I look at (SB probably does the same) is crew age by base.

aapilots.com, "personal & profile" under "helpful links" select "crew age per fleet" select "3 part bid status"

Then just look at the number of 64 year olds (both FO & CA) in the domicile you're interested in. It tells the story...

While you're there another interesting document is the pay longevity chart. It lets you really see what platform...er uh jet...equipment...aircraft! new guys are able to hold in table format.
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Old 06-30-2017, 07:12 AM
  #180  
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You at AA? It's on 'crew age by fleet' on aapilots in the 'personal and profile' section. Click on the three part bid status.

I think I posted general data. ^^^ that will give you base totals by CA and FO on each airplane.

APA 3XP data has retirement date next to each award. If you're not a new hire, or senior, it might be better to count the actual retirements of the guys senior to you in that bid status.
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