Really??
I was hearing that if you had more than 8k-10k TT you were overqualified ans considered un-trainable at DL.

Just look at what happened after the last black swan event. Most (major) carriers were about 50%-60% their original (2000) size before their respective mergers. While a significant portion of domestic flying was transferred to the regionals. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 51% of all domestic flying is now done by the regionals when it used to be around 10%.

We are already starting to see some furloughing from the top with single FOS and PBS being implemented. I am guessing somewhere between 8%-10% less folks needed. Hard to tell from the recent seniority list since it also purged the remaining furloughees.

In the even of another black swan event, I predict that 10% would be gone almost immediately and another 5%-10% over the next 12-24 months. Scope would be obliterated and even more flying would be transferred to the regionals. Shrink to profitability would stir its ugly head again and even more flying would be transferred to the code-shares. Just look at how many flights BA has into CONUS vs AA to the UK.
Something about that virtual airline that previous management wanted.

Ever time their is supposed to be a pilot shortage, something happens and there is no longer one.

Hope for the best but plan for the worst.

May 2105 at ~510 hired was a published 6815TT and 3166 PIC

The average from Jan 2014 to May 2015 was 7293TT and 3790 PIC.

Depends? What has one done on their resume BESIDES fly?

There's been pilots at DAL with 20K plus hired.

I quite agree. In the next 10 years HALF of all the Legacy Carrier Airline pilots will retire. For American, a little MORE than HALF.

(Southwest, FedEx, and UPS are just a few years behind this with their own huge waves.)

The next decade (11-20 years) will see another 40% retire as well (including a lot of the first hired from the regionals).

This does not consider any growth.

Some major external event can happen, it may cause a blip in the system, but the retirement freight train (sorry to mix my metaphors) is barreling down the track. Nothing is going to stop it.

It is like having a 250 knot tailwind.

Exactly. This is what makes this time different from all other past hiring booms. It was also mentioned in another thread that a lot of guys getting hired at American now are in their 40's. which will set off a second mini-wave of retirements.

even if age 67 happens all its going to do is slightly delay things, wont change the end result.

Oldest was 58. Highest TT was 23,000.

Well, if a major war happened in Asia or just NK, air travel would seize up fast, followed by a the mother of all economic contractions. That would certainly stop hiring for awhile.

9/11 was only over three airliners striking the US and it took a trillion dollars off the world economy. Now multiply that by a 100 times.

GF

Greetings fellow aviators,

If anyone currenly at AA can answer this for me it would help me greatly. I am currently working at one of the big ME3 as a WB FO. I would like to return to the US with the wife & kids. I am currently sitting at 7600 TT, A320/ A330 TR, 4 yr deg, former US Marine, Pic 1200 hrs (all GA time during my CFI days), no Jet Pic, International experience. Will AA even take a look at me or would it be better if I go to a regional & get Jet Pic time first? Any advice will be appreciated. Getting tired of the ME. Need to return back. Thank you guys.

Regards
Jet

I'm sure they'll look at you. But if you really want to come back to the US. I would go to a WO and wait it out.

If he goes to a WO it may limit his chance of getting hired off the street at AA

What are his odds of getting hired on his current career path? Looking at class resumes posted here or mentioned privately, or looking at the 'who's got hired' thread and how many FO's, or ME 3 FO's, especially with no US PIC time, are getting hired at AA? The answer is very little or perhaps none. And the few FO's that have gotten hired often have connections that were appear to have been a big factor in their getting pulled by the computer.

This is a basic opinion - look at the resumes of guys getting hired and ask yourself - do I compare? If yes continue on your current path. If you don't compare does your current path get you to a competitive resume? If yes continue what you're doing. If no change your path.

Is the OP going to upgrade in 1-2 years? Staying might help. If no upgrade is in sight with 1000 hrs 121 (currently at zero??) he might be able to upgrade by moving back. Or the regional upgrade might come within the next three years. After two to three yrs as a regional captain he will be a median guy, or better, in all aspects.

Here's another comment about anyone's current resume, if your current resume isn't gaining much traction will X years doing more of the same thing make you more competitive? Or are there other options that allow you to broaden your experience? The perfect example is how many military guys believe getting a regional job triggered a call from a major airline? Former military pilots have literally received one, two, or three contacts after getting a 121 regional job. Were they going to get called anyway? Probably. But does the simple fact of checking 121, a new type rating, new jeopardy event, civilian experience, light up the hiring computer's motherboard?? The answer for some, or perhaps many, appears to be yes. That also might apply to civilians.

A common recommendation by the muckity mucks in hiring is "chase the job." Some candidates really do while some appear to be waiting for the job to find them.

Another recommendation is "be better than your peers." It's possible that the computer seeks that out.

Read posts by guys who've been hired at a major or a regional. You learn different things in a new job. Many mention that. If there's opportunities out there to improve your resume or experience, that aren't a step backwards or a dead end option, I think consideration should be given to challenging yourself. Here's a question to ask - will my resume and personal knowledge base be better if I spend more time at my current job or if I get a different job? That takes some analysis of the future. Is a regional FO job a step backwards for the OP? Yes. But if it leads to a US based 121 upgrade? That depends upon his upgrade timeline at his ME3 job.

I recommend written future resumes, based on a forward looking analysis, on an annual basis assuming you stayed or took a different job. Which job choice makes your resume look like the ones of the guys getting hired? The answer to the 'do I stay or do I go' question might become more obvious.

And none of this has discussed the family dynamics or ex-pat fatigue.

AA has hired guys with those approximate experience/qualifications from Polar/Atlas/Kalitta etc etc. I'd say your changes are good.

No more than going to a non-WO. Pilots from both Piedmont and PSA got hired at mainline AA outside of the flow since the beginning of the year.


Getting hired hired OTS is extremely competitive for those with pure civilian flying backgrounds regardless. Going to an AA WO increases someones chances of making it to AA.

With all of the Flows to AA taking up spots, I'd say that your chances are better of getting hired at Delta or United.

The last new hire class had 16 ots. With only one of those 16 being civilian. Wanna take a guess where he came from? Envoy.. jumped ahead of his flow by about 10 months.

Well i never said it would be impossible. Any idea if this one person was a former intern or anything?

This. Building a resume to work specifically for AA is FLAT OUT not worth it. UAL and DL are better jobs right now. The attrition is better here. Chances are the "job chasing" as mentioned above will help your resume at all three. Good luck!

Totally untrue. WO pilots are getting to the interview and beyond. Most WO pilots don't fill out the app completely cuz they have this mentality.

How many pilots have gotten hired outside of the flow? Was there anything unique about them? Have contacts within? Military? I think if you look at the very small amount of people who got hired out of seniority order, they had one of these going for them. And if they did, they would probably also have a good shot of getting hired off the street. If you do not have something like that going for you, getting hired outside of the flow seems like a long shot.

One or two per class are going outside of flow, which is getting hired off the street (complete interview process).

Of course they have something going on for them! These people aren't just bumps on a log with 8,000 TT, they are also attractive to DL UA etc.

If a WO pilot just wants to "wait" their turn, by all means go ahead. But if that same pilot volunteers, becomes CKA, sim instructor, Chief Pilot, union work, or whatever, it will make their app better and chances of interview much stronger.

'Jumping the list' is tough. But the three guys I've met who've done it stand out amongst their peers.

Every OTS hire stands out from the crowd in some way or another. Some of those qualities and attributes contribute to a candidate being a safe and competent pilots and a good employee, others just stand out the a recruiter and make them think, what a nice guy, "I'd like to spend 4 days flying with this guy," and others check an affirmative action/political correctness box. (All who get a chance to interview have to show up and perform to the standard of the recruitment department) Getting hired by a Legacy Airline has always been a very competitive and selective process and while the impending/on going retirement boom will invariably cause that recruitment process to be less selective, I think those who are called for an interview will always be extremely impressive or extremely lucky.

I wanted to rekindle this thread. I have about 600hrs 121 time from trans states before they went under but I'm considering going to a fractional rather than skywest to build time to get to a major. Good idea? Bad idea? Thoughts?

If I was making the decision, I would look at where there’s movement and turnover. Movement equals opportunities, like joining the training department, check airman etc. That’s the type of stuff majors look for in an applicant, as I’m sure you already know.

Regionals in the recent years have had a steady stream of people leaving, creating opportunities internally. If the fractional you’re considering is going to have opportunities like that, then it probably doesn’t matter that much that it’s not part 121. If you’re looking at an outfit with a bunch of lifers and no growth, probably want to look elsewhere.

If AA is your goal, it’s not a good move. Our OTS numbers are published, and there aren’t many corporate guys at all. It happens, but very slim numbers. Can’t speak for the other majors