I wouldn't commute to sit SC on the 777. SC reserve on the 777 pays the same as a 90 hour group 2 FO line. Commuting to sit SC G2 captain is about $50k/yr more than a 90 hour FO line.

Looking at the pbs awards for LGA, long call seems to go junior on the 777. For PHL it’s solidly SC for the 330 at the bottom. Is this solely a commuter thing? More 777 FO’s live in base in NYC than PHL 330 FO’s, or is there something else to it?

I just think the Holliday’s are a bit of a psychological barrier, once padt them, more people will bid. Additionally, there are people who think the company could decide to screw them over by training earlier (in December). This bid is entered after the holidays, that makes it feel safer to bid.

Just guessing, I hope Im wrong by the way, my seniority is in the range of most of your guesses, so...

.... And a 90hr G4 FO ≈ 73hr G2 CA

Which is why a lot of commuters choose G4 FO vs G2 rsv. Even non commuting G4 FO's choose G2 CA. The choice is a fairly decent G4 FO schedule vs working less, but more uncertainty and hassle, as a G2 CA on reserve.

They wouldn’t bid off. I’m saying the next bid might be one month only? However it could also then include the MD80 displacements. Many MD80 pilots are senior to a lot. So now would be the time for pilots junior to them to bid the group 4 who didn’t and haven’t previously.

Once the 80 gets parked it could be a little stagnant for a few bids. I.e look at ORD with the MD80 then 767 then STL closure then 777 finally biting it. This bid might finally see some movement there but when you start retiring planes out of a base it’s a wild guess. Some may bid over now before those 80s park let alone 767 eventual closure in dfw too.

I could see a lot of guys getting group 4 FO in DFW on this bid, flying it for the summer, then getting displaced out in the fall when the -80 guys get their displacement bid. Some of those guys will probably get a few months off waiting for training.

Maybe, but what is AA’s angle? Is it cheaper to run fat on Group IV FOs or spend the money to retrain all the junior guys on something else?

That's a good question. I don't think there is an economical way to take 26 planes off line at once. If I were making the decisions I'd wind them down instead of having 350 pilots needing training all at once.

I should add, not that AA always makes sound business decisions. 🙄

Block hours aren’t going down so all of those 80 block hours and pilots will have to be absorbed elsewhere. I just don’t see massive displacements occurring.

I don’t think we’ll see anymore secondary displacements with the loss of airframes. Too much hiring/training.

The vacancy forecast shows big increases in the 737 and 320 staffing for both CA and FO in Nov. It looks like that's where they plan on the S-80 guys going. If they all bid the same thing, they could really screw things up.

August to November - +66 737 FO's, +175 320 FO's.

S80 FO's - 175 in November
E190's - 144 in November

They'll figure it out. It might not be perfect but AA won't go away in the end of 2019.

https://www.avweb.com/avwebflash/new...-232027-1.html


so the 319neo was certified today, maybe AA orders a bunch of these in lieu of the 220? or 195?

Dougweiser says pretty much the same price as a 321, so they don’t want it. I’m not sure if fuel-savings cost would play into their decision or not.

June vacancy
 

The 319Neo was in the works when the CSeries deal was made. Airbus has signaled that the 319Neo was going to be DOA with only a handful of orders. We have stated multiple times that we’d rather order 319’s over a new 100 seat airplane.

Personally I’d love to see the A220, but I’ll take 100+ more 319’s at G2 rates. It would make sense considering training simplicity, new aircraft acquisition costs and new fleet mx, etc...

I wonder how close the cost comparison is to the A220(300 series).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You all have hinted around what my crystal ball says.

1. It tells me the A319 is almost the price as an A321. At seats for A321 that price is good. At A319 seats that is not as cost effective.

2. Airbus has hinted the A319neo is DOA.

3. The lines for the A319/A320/A321 are booked with A321 orders.

4. Good low hours used A319s are hard to come by.

5. As markets grow and pilot shortage grows, some of the regional 76 seat will grow to mainline 100-130 seat demand. 50 seats will be parked as they are replaced by 76 seats.

6. Airbus is a motivated seller on the A220. They bought it, they want to keep those lines busy, they want to have market share, and they want to prove a good return on their investment. They will keep the price more competitive than the A319.

7. My bet, consistent with the current pay tables, the A220-100 will be Group 1 and A220-300 will be Group 2.

I realize American’s management statements today, and statements of some of the pilots here, are contrary to this. I am looking up over the horizon to see what will happen a few years ahead. Or, for those inclined to chess, I am looking at the chess board, 4 or 5 moves ahead.

https://www.airbus.com/content/dam/c...rices-2018.pdf


If the product line is running at a high level putting in a smaller model reduces the total profit. Perhaps AB is less willing to negotiate prices as much for 319 deliveries?

Missing from this discussion is the E195-E2. This stretched and updated plane can go further than our E190 and Max out our group 1 limit nicely.

Three classes120 seats | 12 @ 36" | 24 @ 34" | 84 @ 31" pitch

a. Group I: With the exception of aircraft identified in Groups II through V below, any aircraft
configured (i.e. as operated by American Airlines) with greater than seventy-six (76) seats
and less than one-hundred-eighteen (118) seats, including E190/195, CRJ-1000, MRJ-
100, and Bombardier CS100.

Airbus has stated pretty much this when the A220 was unveiled this summer. The cost to produce a 321 over 319 is minimal, and they’d rather give a ‘deal’ on the 321’s as it still ensures profitability to Airbus as a whole.

If you look at some of the aviation business propaganda rags, occasionally you’ll discover a gem of an article talking about the dynamics of the 330Neo flagging sales and the anchor that is the A380. Airbus has a winner in the 321Neo, LR and newer (but not yet greenlit) 321XLR. The XLR, if launched, will attempt to preempt the success of the Boeing NMA/797 by being ‘good enough’ and available before the 797’s maiden flight.

All of that basically signals that the 319Neo, while available, will not be sold on the cheap.






Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The last, several year old, purchase price on the 319ceo I saw was $44m but that was several years old and also not the NEO. Suffice to say it’s easily over $50m.

Both Delta and jetBlue purchased their C series aircraft for around $20m a copy. It was, if you believe Boeing, below the cost to manufacture the airplane.

Oh I believe it. Bombardier was desperate to have it flying for anyone.

I’ve heard nothing but amazing things about the airplane, it’s just that no one trusted Bombardier would be around long enough to service it’s lifecycle costs.

Now with Airbus running the program, I expect sales to get much better.

One thing that may stop AA from buying the A220 is I believe Delta signed an exclusive deal to do all MRO operations in North America. Too bad there’s no money in maintaining aircraft... or putting cargo on them [emoji52]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Honestly I think managements goal is to keep as little flying from creeping into mainline as possible. There are a ton of markets the 100-120 seat mainline plane would be nice to have but keep in mind the total ramifications of it. Not only pilots, but filtering all the way down to station ops that have contracts that dictate mainline above and below wing personnel.

Delta doesn’t have that issue. They outsource all their ground ops pretty much system wide to DGS (now spun off to get rid of flying benefits) but do use Delta agents above the wing. Also our mtc contract stipulates mainline mechanics as well. Delta...not so much.

There are so many variables that you can’t real compare us to Delta. Just adding another mainline flight might trigger a cost structure that suddenly makes the station unprofitable.

Not that long ago the DC9 didn’t even have 70 seats and was a mainline aircraft. Obviously that ship has sailed but just goes to show you what we've lost. Long term, we will grow ASMs by upgauging seating capacity on mainline planes, example for every AA 737 Doug switches to 172 seats vs premerger 150, we essentially expand by 15% overnight for almost no increase in operating cost.

NameUser - 160 seat 737's started coming on line in early 2011 (pre merger, pre BK) if not sooner.

Do you think an A220-100 (100 seat) would be contractually settled as a regional plane? I think it would be a Group 1.

Do you think an A220-300 (130 seat) would be contractually settled as either a regional plane or a Group 1 plane? I think it would be a Group 2.

He’s saying no matter if it’s group 1 or group 2 if it is operated by mainline it then triggers mainline station personnel as well.

Yep that's it. And their contracts get interesting between LAA and LUS on the ground side. For example, going to RDU, Envoy handles certain gates that LAA parks at and mainline US handles the LUS gates. Keep in mind AA has a 777 in RDU. This is part of the contention between the company and ground unions, they basically want to combine the best of LUS contractual staffing requirements with the best of the LAA vacation, days off, etc. It would trigger a huge staffing increase on the mainline ground side pushing Envoy rates of $10/hr to mainline where they start at $18 IIRC. Caught in the middle are the mechanics who can't get away from them and presto, you have instant stalemate.

The numbers still work but not as dramatic. Putting 12 additonal seats on a 737 means for every 13 airplanes we had before we now have one free one. Wih 350 airplanes that means we just added 26 to our fleet for the cost of a cabin refurb.

Exactly. The company and financial people talk about growth in terms of ASM. Increasing 1/3 of our fleet by 7.5% equates to a system wide ASM increase of approx 2.5%. Pilot pay hours, which is what we care about, went up zip.

Award out yet?

Probably sometime the week of the 14th, for the prelims.

I’m betting 18 Jan...

The 16th, with:
PBS
VACATION
VANCANCY
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

The Trifecta...

Hehehe... Or the Tardy Trifecta on the 17th

Those flames will be coming out of the super-commodore Trying to Keep Up!!!

All I can picture is the scene in Christmas Vacation with the electric meter spinning 9000 RPM.

............

Bid is out. Junior group 2 CA is 121xx, Feb 2014 hire.