June vacancy
 

It's out on aapilots.



52 group 4 CAs
16 group 3 CAs
85 group 2 CAs
44 group 4 FOs




Predictions: Junior group 2 CA 12,100. Junior group 4 FO 12,500. (That would be early 2014/summer 2014 DOH's)

Wouldn’t summer slots go more senior as there is no training over holidays or summer breaks?

Yes, this bid would likely be more junior than an August bid because training for this one is mar/apr/may. This bid is much larger than the other multi month bids we have had so far.

Looks like this one is even bigger than the one from late summer, isn’t it? CA went waaay more jr for that run... hopefully that continues!!

IMO this will be a more senior bid. The September and December bids can impact summer vacations and the holidays. The March and June training occur in the ‘quietest’ time of the Jan-May (June IOE for the May training starts).

IMO the first two bids of the year don’t impact my life. The last two both might have negative family impacts(summer vacation or the holidays)

Late summer bid (September) is actually summer training with June- August starts. With that being the highest demand part of the year the fewer the training starts = increased pilots on the line and more CKA available to help with the summer demand if necessary.

My guess is similar to the last bid as far as awards go. I'm guessing your numbers are good for next June's bid.

With 600 retirements a year won't we need 150 CAs a quarter? I know not all the guys retiring are CAs but almost all can hold it.

Yes this bid basically covers a quarter worth of retirement but there will be quite a few people that won't bid for these positions until they can hold a line, get weekends off, avoid coverage days, etc. The last big bid like this saw group 2 CA and group 4 FO drop several hundred numbers.

Rough estimate from the times I've counted is 85% CA's and 15% FO retirements.

I'm working on the end of 2018 seniority bid statuses (with DOH this time) per a request. Looking at the announced vacancies and they're in bid statuses that are more senior and/or have been stagnated recently. The big exception is LGA 777 FO. It's currently 11,748 at the bottom and the bottom G4 FO slot in the company. The six vacancies would have to drop 752 numbers to reach 12,500. If we were betting I'd be betting against 12,500 at the bottom in the June bid. I think there will be some more senior guys back filling.

We'll be smarter come Jan 15-18th!

Floodgates open!

777 FO DFW jumped 2000 numbers last OCT.

But it went back to being very senior, very quickly. On the bid that came out last June, I would have been able to hold it. Last couple of bids, I've been 1000+ numbers out again.

DCA components?
 

How many of these new CAs will be in DCA and in which aircraft?

18 known vacancies for DCA737CA. Bring it on!

Which means we award 0 ;)

As we all know AA doesn’t know how to plan. These announcements, until we require them to by contract, never match up.

Exactly! The vacancy announcement is worthless. And I’m not talking about the fact that there are vacancies created as a biproduct of filling the vacancies. Rather, they announce 10 CA vacancies in CLT and fill none. Stuff like that happens here.

My understanding is that other airlines are contractually required to fill every vacancy announced.

Yup. However we make excuses here like “AWA and LUS were tiny.” Ignore that when AA wasn’t 15k they still didn’t do this. DAL and UAL I do believe full theirs. However I don’t have their contract in front of me to confirm that?

AA should just say "we are going to move pilots around on January 1"!
By the way, January 1 is a Tuesday, not Monday.

Sixty seven (?) training starts on the 777. About a half dozen started in October so they'd perhaps only impact the Thanksgiving holiday. The other 60 ish starts made have had training conflicts with Thanksgiving and/or Christmas. Granted they were relatively junior already but IMO that supports the point I was trying to make - senior guys avoid the holiday conflicts if they can and there frequently can be significant back filling after a bid status goes very junior.

The junior FO's on the 777 in DFW, who were on reserve in November, are line holders in January. Guys just senior to them, who've been saying "I'd like to go to the 777 but I don't want to be on reserve" are suddenly going "whoa, did you what they're holding now?" With a couple more Europe trips (most popular to second most popular flying?) the mid pack guys are looking at more bidding horsepower.

And that's just at the bottom of the bid status. How many BNA, MEM, IND, etc, etc commuting to a G2 job have become DFW 777 lineholders as the bottom moved 2500 numbers? A lot. G4 pay changes bidding/vacancy thinking.

Place your bets.
G2 CA 11700
G4 FO 12200

11.5 G2 ca
11.9 G4 fo

My bet -

G2 CA 11800
G4 FO 12400

Let’s take bets how many weeks it’ll take to come out!

After Monday, January 1st 🤣

January 1 is Tuesday!

I bet the results will be posted on January 18.

Don't worry. We got APA to.... Nevermind.

Can't wait to read the announcements on Wednesday, Jan 1st.

Too funny, Wednesday, January 1st 2018

Group 2 is A320/737, what's group 3? Group 4 are 777/787/330?

757/767. You are correct on G4.

G2 CA breaks 12,000 (and it will be the LGA 320/737)
G4 FO 12,200 (and it will be the LGA 777)

I’ve only been paying attention to LGA trips. Up there it seems the 320 trips are MUCH better than the 737.

How about Miami? Is one significantly better than the other (commutability/credit) wise or are they pretty similar?

FYI Delta is not required to fill posted vacancies either.


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Thanks for the clarification, I didn’t know that.

But I think DAL has contractual protections to ensure that those vacancies don't get filled by NHs post-award....

G2 CA 11300 (sr to now)
G4 FO 11800 (sr to now)
G3 FO 14800 and unfilled, new hires assigned this summer
G1 CA 14600 forced

June vacancy
 

Interesting. What makes you say that? On the June bid last year that was similar in size g2 ca dropped 400 numbers.

Wild guess. Senior pilots held off to bid it for the holidays and to secure their vacation for next year. Doing such knowing movement would still be happening and no need to rush into those positions. Now they will have a premium vacation slot next year, more pilots below them in their new status, and a better schedule then they previously would have with junior pilots who took it the year prior.

Just a guess based on his predictions. One that may very well be right. Many also jumping before the MD80 parking which with the exception of a few new hires is still relatively senior and those pilots being an unknown what they’ll bid to next.

Rockiepilot is correct, it’s also Sliceback’s theory. Also, for the G4 FO, it was a surprise how low it went 2 bids ago. Lots of people trying to get in on the action now.

June vacancy
 

If people wanted to wait for holidays and vacation they could have bid off on the March bid. We bid for vacation in January and you bid for the seat you’re currently occupying. Or at least that’s what i thought.

Why would you jump off an airplane 2 months before it’s going to be parked? No seat lock if you get displaced. That doesn’t make any sense.

Plus, look at last June bid. Group 2 captain dropped 400.

I think group 4 FO will continue to drop. I'm about 500 away from it. Of those 500, 56 based in LAX/PHX and are very unlikely to take a cross country commute to sit short call. 25 are DFW767 and most of them at this seniority are seat locked. 28 are DFW S-80 and would probably be withheld until the 80 is parked. 24 are on the 767 in PHL/LGA, many are seat locked. 11 are 190 CA's and would be withheld for a year. That's 144 that are very unlikely to bid LGA-777. Another 80 are in DFW on the 737/320 and not likely to take a bad commute to SC considering DFW 777 has been going almost as junior.

Yes, especially in NYC, because NYC sucks.

LGA G2 CA will keep dropping like a rock too.