TransWorld

Do you (everyone, not specifically mainlineAF) think AA has a strong enough balance sheet to survive the next few years (I think they do)?

Over the next dozen years, will UA and especially DL have to replace their much older fleets (I think so)?

If so, all the majors will have lots of debt due to renewed fleets. At that point, having paid down part of their debt from earlier fleet renewal, AA will have the strongest balance sheet.

You are welcome to your opinion. But that is mine.

PRS Guitars

Denver and Colorado are going in a bad direction. Not to get political, but it is solidly controlled by one party now and they went on a rampage of bad legislation last spring. Denver has legalized psychedelic mushrooms and is actively trying to legalize heroin via shoot up clinics. The cost of living is rising fast and real estate is getting pretty expensive. Our one saving grace is our Taxpayer Bill of Rights (TABOR) which requires a vote of the people to raise taxes, unfortunately, they are doing everything they can to repeal it. They tried (but failed, thank god) to legalize camping in public spaces...they will keep trying.

Check out https://completecolorado.com/ to get up to speed before moving here.

If you are a progressive, then Denver is for you, if not, just be careful about moving here. Personally, I’d like to leave once my youngest graduates from high school.

I also think being Denver based at UAL, is similar to being CLT based at AA...slow movement.

AFTrainerGuy

Working from the baseline that you don’t wanna commute.....

Do you like living in CLT? If tomorrow you got awarded CLT, would you still want to move to Denver? If so, apply to UAL/SW and go if it will make you and your family happier. If/when they call, decide then. If you like CLT, then I’d stay at AA. You will get in. The dam showed a tiny leak on the last bid and it’s just a matter of time.

Personally, I put no faith in future projections 20 years out. Maybe they happen, maybe they don’t. Anyone who tells you otherwise is lying or guessing. Do what will make you happiest and don’t sweat the future (seniority, debt, stock buybacks, automation, etc... you can’t control it anyway).

mainlineAF

That is literally the point i was making.

PRS Guitars

He does live in an AA base, just can’t hold it yet. He is on the verge of holding it though.

Elevate

Great comments all. Appreciate the inputs. I’ll probably float the app again and make a decision if it triggers. We miss Colorado (despite Blue wave) and are very meh about CLT. It’s the commuting 500+ hours/month for 20 years that has me in consternation. And a slight inner turmoil lingers for pulling my UAL app two years back. Will probably split the difference and stay AA CLT for half the time and commute from Colorado for the last decade. Maybe....

Name User

AA has $4b in investments and $300m in cash.

On that $4.3b they earned $33m in interest last quarter. That is an annualized 3.0%.

So, no, they are not making "considerably more" (your words) than 5% off their "liquidity".

Saying AA has $7b in "liquidity" includes $3b credit available to them but not drawn. That is essentially a credit card with $3b cash advance on it.

Their interest payout is around $1b a year, and runs around 5.4%.

You can learn all of this by reading our quarterly and annual reports.

https://americanairlines.gcs-web.com/node/37356/html

FlyPurdue

I don’t mean that they will be making more than 5% in annual interest, I'm simply saying that >5% is a hurdle rate for any capital expenditure.

Thanks for pointing me to the 10-q, although I spent 5 years in planning at AA; revenue management and fleet planning. Treasury/Capital Planning, was not my area of expertise. Doug reiterates on every investor call that AA has a liquidity of $7B, and I took that at face value - I was wrong.

full of luv

Plus Doug has stated publicly that AA will never lose money again.... so you have that going for ya, which is nice!

PRS Guitars

It’s more than the blue wave, even my liberal friends and family want to move. It’s just changing rapidly. You can have great life in CLT, and will probably hold it before you could Interview, get a CJO, get a class date, then hold DEN at UAL. I have the opposite problem of you, we thought about moving to CLT when I got hired, and moved home to Colorado instead. Now the kids are well established and we are tied in. I regret it every day.

You won’t commute from CLT for 20 years...that’s not mathematically possible, unless they close the base or shrink it rapidly. The problem is, it’s still being affected by the integration. LAA guys want it and new hires that were on the LAA side senior to you want it, and they seem to have shrunk the flying a bit. It won’t be forever though.