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Old 07-11-2019, 02:38 PM   #61  
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Originally Posted by PRS Guitars View Post
Itís more than the blue wave, even my liberal friends and family want to move. Itís just changing rapidly. You can have great life in CLT, and will probably hold it before you could Interview, get a CJO, get a class date, then hold DEN at UAL. I have the opposite problem of you, we thought about moving to CLT when I got hired, and moved home to Colorado instead. Now the kids are well established and we are tied in. I regret it every day.
Yep. I grew up in Colorado, and had a well established life there. Friends, family, nice house in the foothills, etc. I even had an offer from United, where I wanted to work my entire life.

But I have become absolutely disgusted with the direction Colorado and the Front Range in particular are going. Itís extremely busy, very expensive, and I do not like the type of people moving there now. Not only do I disagree with many of them politically, but they also have no idea how to act in the mountains. Entitled, trashing trails, very selfish, etc. CO is no longer the place I grew up in and loved.

I ended up going to purple, and can basically live anywhere now. My wife and I sold our house and moved far, far away from CO with zero regrets.
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Old 07-11-2019, 03:09 PM   #62  
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It was one a day, for a ďtimeĒ. For how long? A week? A month?

If it was one a day, 365 years a year, in two and one half years every plane would have been replaced. That never happened.
We got a **** ton of aircraft in a short amount of time. IIRC it was the largest single commercial order ever.

We needed them. We had almost 400(!) S80's that needed replacing. And due to the economy we were able to finance them at insanely low rates (for an airline).
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Old 07-11-2019, 03:34 PM   #63  
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We got a **** ton of aircraft in a short amount of time. IIRC it was the largest single commercial order ever.

We needed them. We had almost 400(!) S80's that needed replacing. And due to the economy we were able to finance them at insanely low rates (for an airline).
I remember it well.
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Old 07-11-2019, 05:02 PM   #64  
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DEN-LAX is probably a pretty easy commute....AA, UW, SW, Frontier.

You'd have awesome seniority on the NBs, and later on have the WB option if you wanted.

I think your plan of going live w UA app and seeing what nibbles you get is a good way to approach it.
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Old 07-11-2019, 06:27 PM   #65  
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Wrx,

Where did you move of you dont mind me asking?
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Old 07-11-2019, 11:24 PM   #66  
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The next twenty years is a long time and a lot of commuting. Airline stability aside I say keep it simple...sacrifice the 27 months now and live where you will be the most content. And I whole heartedly agree with your assessment of commuting, CLT, and AA. Ive done the first part, lived in the second part, and endured nearly four decades in the last part with four years to go. Wish I could be more optimistic but I am far from the only old timer AA native that thinks this way FWIW.
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Old 07-12-2019, 06:09 AM   #67  
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That is currently true. Delta’s fleet age is however dropping rapidly without any debt increase. By 2023 it should match Americans.
On the narrowbody side DAL has a lower age than United but is averaging over four years older than AA, and that is before we get rid of our 80's, which are over 20 years old.

United's narrowbody fleet is almost 16 years old (average). They have over 200 small narrowbodies in the 130-150 seat range that are 20 years old. Maybe they will upgauge to the MAX. That would actually be smart because it would then make them an all 737 narrowbody fleet (plus some 757's).

AA also has 48 320's that are closing in on 20 years old. That is typically when they have chosen to replace aircraft. So not sure what to expect...will they hold on to those aircraft longer, will they replace with up-gauged 321neos, or replace with 737-8MAX's?

My hunch says replace with the MAX, assuming it actually gets airborne again, due to the extremely long wait for the NEO and the premium the Airbus product is getting.

The more concerning thing is for the first time, DAL has carried more domestic passengers than AA has (1Q 2019).
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Old 07-12-2019, 06:16 AM   #68  
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On the narrowbody side DAL has a lower age than United but is averaging over four years older than AA, and that is before we get rid of our 80's, which are over 20 years old.

United's narrowbody fleet is almost 16 years old (average). They have over 200 small narrowbodies in the 130-150 seat range that are 20 years old. Maybe they will upgauge to the MAX. That would actually be smart because it would then make them an all 737 narrowbody fleet (plus some 757's).

AA also has 48 320's that are closing in on 20 years old. That is typically when they have chosen to replace aircraft. So not sure what to expect...will they hold on to those aircraft longer, will they replace with up-gauged 321neos, or replace with 737-8MAX's?

My hunch says replace with the MAX, assuming it actually gets airborne again, due to the extremely long wait for the NEO and the premium the Airbus product is getting.

The more concerning thing is for the first time, DAL has carried more domestic passengers than AA has (1Q 2019).
United has a large number of 32x. Fyi
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Old 07-12-2019, 06:41 AM   #69  
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United has a large number of 32x. Fyi
Yes...they have

~70 319's
~100 320's
~40 737-700's

The 319's are the youngest average age at 18. The others are over 20.

That being said they had acquired a dozen or so used 319's lately. So either they plan on bringing more Airbus in or it was just to add additional capacity while they determine what to do. But a large MAX order would simplify their fleet significantly.
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Old 07-12-2019, 08:18 AM   #70  
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AA also has 48 320's that are closing in on 20 years old. That is typically when they have chosen to replace aircraft. So not sure what to expect...will they hold on to those aircraft longer, will they replace with up-gauged 321neos, or replace with 737-8MAX's?

My hunch says replace with the MAX, assuming it actually gets airborne again, due to the extremely long wait for the NEO and the premium the Airbus product is getting.
My understanding is all the AA Mad Dogs get parked right after this Labor Day. All of the A320s, B757, and the older B767 get parked as they are replaced over the next few years. These are/will be about 20+ years old*. The reality is this will reduce the average age of the AA fleet, even as Delta is renewing their fleet.


*The current average age of these fleets are:
20.6 years MD-80
18.0 years A320
19.5 years B757
20.1 years B767

This is about 12% of the fleet, which averages, with them 10.8 years.

So the average age of the fleet will reduce a couple of years.


Separately, my crystal ball sees over half (~80) of the A319s are about 20 years old. The Airbus lines are mostly dedicated to the A321s. Few low hour used A319s will be available for purchase. So my crystal ball says, contrary to AA management statements, AA will buy some A220s. Not much of any other choice of current production.
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