I think you would find that the majority of people posting doomsday scenarios on APC almost everyday, are they ones not handling it well. They use it to elicit a response that things won’t be as bad as they think or are just finding a way to cope. IMO.

Except that SWA furlough threat, at least amongst the pilot group, seems pretty hollow because if we fly the published schedule in January 2021, the company will have to bring back many people who took ExTO a few months back. That's why it seems like every group is telling the company to pound sand and calling their bluff on the furlough threat.

With respect to AA making it, I'm pretty sure AA will make it. But should the unthinkable happen, I disagree with the notion that the 117,000 jobs would be lost forever. Seniority would be lost, but many jobs would be essentially reallocated to other airlines. Let's suppose a legacy carrier goes away. It would spawn a major race between the remaining 3 major carriers to fill in the void and grab as many assets as possible, and that's not taking into account ULCC's who would also step up. Pretty sure any furloughs would be cancelled pretty much everywhere and the hiring would spin up about as fast as possible.

An example of this on a smaller scale in recent history would be what ensued in Hawaii in 2008 when Aloha Airlines went out of business because they had way too much debt and no DIP financing. 61 year old airline, and one of the largest private employers in the state went out of business in literally days. The net effect, Hawaiian Air was the big winner and they absorbed many former Aloha employees, pilots included. Also, given the surge, many of those pilots had a relatively quick upgrade because Hawaiian had to fill a big void in a short order. That's what I suspect would happen should a legacy carrier go under now. No, it wouldn't be pretty, but it wouldn't be the end of the world either as most folks would land on their feet elsewhere.

Only a Sith deals in absolutes.


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Sure. Are they profitable from a fleet perspective (ie keeping all the pilots paid, sims going, etc) or just on a per flight basis though? In other words do the cargo flights defray the cost of keeping them on or simply mitigate some of the cost?

I was curious they pulled the 321T off the LAX JFK runs and put the triple on it. Right now it's only for nov. We'll have to see after the Dec schedule loads what happens then. Amazingly, we used to do 12 a day between those city pairs on the 321T. It's just so hard to imagine all the business we used to do, seems like so long ago.

Soooo true!

Obviously AA has been taking on huge loans to ride this thing out. Assuming they meet their goal of being cash burn neutral by the end of the year (I know DAL & UAL won’t, but probably by next summer), what would stop AA from returning the money they didn’t need to lenders? Assuming the loan terms allow that.

yep, a 777 had as many premium seats as 321t, but we just don’t need the frequency right now. Another route is jfk-lhr, we used to have 4 times a day in the triple, now done to just one, and it rarely has more than 50 people on it, I wish this was just a bad dream.

Well, this summer they sold junk bonds at 12%. I don’t know if those bonds were callable or not. I would think not though.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-for-liquidity


They also raised a billion from sales of shares and another billion from the sales of convertible bonds. But I doubt that they can buy those back - at least not the shares - until they can pay back the federal loans they took under CARES 1 since that prohibits share buyback. And since the money they borrowed under Cares1 is currently theIr cheapest source for borrowing, I don’t think they will be doing share buybacks any time soon.

Does my crystal ball says AA will go through Chapter 11, reorganize, and come out the other end? Yes, fairly good odds.

Will they go to Chapter 7, liquidate, and go out of business? I doubt that.

Will another major airline buy AA? I doubt it. Anti-trust.

Will bankruptcy result in AA buying another smaller airline? Fair odds.

Then I asked you crystal ball for a hot stock tip. It went dark.

You guys are being trolled by a regional pilot flow wanna be.