Yeah, we're effed. As one of the first furloughs... I'll see y'all in a decade.

Honestly...if things go down the way they are going...you should plan on ongoing elsewhere and not coming back.

Analysts are hitting them hard on what is their future plan, what does a future AA look like, is this a viable business? And quite frankly they (analysts) have some major suspicions that management is blowing smoke.

I feel like these guys don't have a true grasp of how to make AA viable. That is what scares me. People fly AA because they have to (cheap, we serve a destination etc) not because they want to.

Yeah that 200 was out of 1350 which would include the regionals. So it seems it wouldn’t come out of mainline per se.

I'd have to go back and listen but they were talking mainline fleet at that time, later they did touch on regional feed and mentioned maybe culling some 50 seaters.

Go back a few pages and look at my summary of fleet age and # of aircraft and it closely correlates (outside the 777s) with their mention today. They seem to love 321s so I'd expect the 737s, 319s, and 320s to go.

They stated on the earnings call that 40% of our debt is pre-payable without penalty, and the average of our total debt is roughly 4%.

If APA would fix the scope, and demanded a flow-back with the flow throughs, things might be different.

Correct me if Im wrong, from a simpletons point of view if at best case we burn 25 million a day and have a bingo amount of 8 billion Prior to BK starting with 13.6 billion at the end of the third quarter we have about 7 to 8 months to play with taking us to April or May of 2021. That of course is counting on some type of cares act getting through so it might not even get us into the spring. Now for the not so good news...

Yeah, but the LAST sale of junk bonds was at 12%. As those 3.5-4.0% bonds become payable, it is unlikely they will be able to roll it over to new debt at anything resembling 4%. Look at what the yield to payout is of AA bonds in the secondary market is right now.

???

It's all long term debt. AA isn't financing any more bonds AFAIK and won't until things improve, and by then rates will have normalized (hopefully). We don't even need normal traffic by then, but people booking out into the future. We need a viable path.

Hands down I'm not as nearly concerned about our debt, as I am about the lack of a long term plan for the next 5-10 years.

United had a similar issue post merger and was kinda like a rudderless boat adrift at sea. Munoz worked through it and rallied the employees.

Kind of depends on your definition of long term debt I suppose. The next big bullet maturity is the three-quarters of a billion dollars in a little less than two years, but there are another quarter billion worth of small tranches between now and then. But the old bonds had a coupon of from 3.15 to 4%. The most current is at 12%. And the company is going to HAVE TO sell new bonds to pay off the old ones unless they have that much profit by then. Either that or sell more shares, further diluting their price.