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Old 12-11-2021, 08:16 AM
  #11  
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Originally Posted by nAAtive View Post
Not really. Of course, high load factors are important. But look at loads during ski season going into eagle or Gunnison. Full there and empty back depending on the day. And those routes are highly profitable. AA hasn’t been making money on full Asia flights either.
Which is where the rest of that equation comes in... fuel cost, aircraft efficiency, ticket prices that consumers are willing to pay (and in your example, high enough that it doesn't matter the return load), etc. But to say load factor isn't an indication isn't true.
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Old 12-11-2021, 08:17 AM
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Originally Posted by Setspeed View Post
Umm what? Yes it is. Not entirely, but it is a component.
You could fill every seat in a triple and lose money when the tickets are only $49-$99 (just did a quick check for today and the next few days on that route on the AA app). Even same day fares are $99…Tuesday is $49. Lie-flats are $369. Tough to make money with fares that low, even with full flights.

From a higher level on this same issue, with the amount of growth UA has planned, along with growth at B6, NK, F9, WN, breeze, and maybe DL/AA?, maybe avelo and airbahn and whoever else, it sure seems like there will be a ton of capacity coming over the next few years, with potentially low fares as a result. https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/...-too-ambitiou/. Hopefully that isn’t the case and everyone does well. But I’m not entirely optimistic.
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Old 12-11-2021, 12:25 PM
  #13  
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Originally Posted by BeatNavy View Post
You could fill every seat in a triple and lose money when the tickets are only $49-$99 (just did a quick check for today and the next few days on that route on the AA app). Even same day fares are $99…Tuesday is $49. Lie-flats are $369. Tough to make money with fares that low, even with full flights.

From a higher level on this same issue, with the amount of growth UA has planned, along with growth at B6, NK, F9, WN, breeze, and maybe DL/AA?, maybe avelo and airbahn and whoever else, it sure seems like there will be a ton of capacity coming over the next few years, with potentially low fares as a result. https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/...-too-ambitiou/. Hopefully that isn’t the case and everyone does well. But I’m not entirely optimistic.
I guess if there are too many players in the field the question is who"s gonna blink first. Who can burn through their reserves the longest while hoping the competition is going away. Which company actually has management that half way care about the company and not about their golden parachute.AA has a lot of in house cleaning to do.
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Old 12-11-2021, 12:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Setspeed View Post
Which is where the rest of that equation comes in... fuel cost, aircraft efficiency, ticket prices that consumers are willing to pay (and in your example, high enough that it doesn't matter the return load), etc. But to say load factor isn't an indication isn't true.
True, but also saying that they are making money because flights are full definitely isn’t true.
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Old 12-11-2021, 04:29 PM
  #15  
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Originally Posted by nAAtive View Post
True, but also saying that they are fine making money because flights are full definitely isn’t true.
AA has a lot of fixed costs right now. If the flight beats marginal costs it’s a win in the scenario
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