AA or Delta
 

I’m fortunate to have the option of AA or Delta. As a 45 year old, what is the better option? AA is a financial nightmare, but DL brings the chance of a year or more in JFK (I have a low SS number, so no bidding power). AA also has mass retirements, which brings some security. Thoughts?

The answer is where do you plan on living for the next 20 years?

I have never seen an airline implode as bad as here at American. I've been here over 35 years and I will tell you the morale is the worst. Even in the merger times there was the hope for renewal and a new beginning. Not now. Parker and Eberwine are jumping ship. Their WOKE culture has created divisiveness and division. Few except on the web boards will disagree with this assessment. The mask/pandemic illusion is very autocratic and the management at least here is non existent and for show....wait, they don't even come out of their offices except to come and go! Delta is your best bet. Balance sheet is much better. Stay the course and stay away. Tell your friends too. Its now called AmeriKant Airlines. Remember that.

Where do you live/plan to live? May be the most important question. Do you have class dates for both yet? I'm guessing your AA class date will be months before Delta, why not go and see how it is and what you think. If you decide to stay, great! If not, you can still go to Delta and commute or maybe even 2 leg commute to NY and hate your entire first year, but hopefully have improvements after that year. I say hopefully after reading about many of Delta's pairings and real fatigue concerns. But that could change and improve.

Exactly. I’m fortunate to work alongside pilots at pretty much all the other legacies in my side hustle, and will say that every airline has its warts (and some of those concerns specifically addressed by “old man yelling at cloud” are universal.) They all complain as well, your never going to find utopia or a clear winner. So, priority one is to go where you can live in base (or absent that, whichever one offers the easiest commute.) Financials, whatever. Delta just hasn’t recapitalized their fleet yet, but they are going to have to, so who’s to say their debt load won’t increase soon.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Echo the where do you live question/answer. That's all that matters (IMO obviously)

I suck at predicting the future. But I can't see you having to stay a year in NYC unless you want to. Not a bad way to set your worst case expectations, but I don't think it'd happen.

Make a pros and cons list.

Delta:
Bases in NYC, ATL, DTW, MSP, SLC, SEA, LAX
Questionable cockpit culture especially the RDPs in ATL. Military vs. civilian issues. "Where's your hat, son?" "Put that newspaper away, son". Guard policing and constant ambiguous ride reports.
Horse blankets when it's 90 degrees.
Autocratic management style only a notch above SkyWest. They will treat you like a child. Pilots are the only union. DALPA usually bends over anyhow.
The company is profitable and the pilots make good money. Strong balance sheet. Aging fleet will have to be replaced. Debt will go up.
Arguably the best product in terms of passenger experience. Loyal business customer base (HVCs).
Work rules are okay except their schedules. Reassignment rules worse than a regional. You won't fly what you bid.
210/356 day bid awards and new hire seat locks. Nearly guarantees 2 years in NYC if you're junior.

American:
Bases in BOS, NYC, PHL, DCA, MIA, DFW, ORD, PHX, LAX. You can pretty much live anywhere with them.
Questionable cockpit culture. Legacy US/AW/AA? Older pilots nearing retirement who have had a terrible career and it shows. Flow vs. street vs. military.
Respectful management style that expects pilots to be leaders and take action. Nonpunitive culture.
Management that can't seem to get it together. Are you going to be an LCC or a Legacy?
Massive overhead and bloated management structure. Not profitable but loyal customer base. Decent passenger experience. Has potential to be great.
Massive debt due to refleeting. Most of it is secured debt like a mortgage, not bad debt like a credit card.
Bankruptcy/merger contract over 10 years old. Can only get better? APA is fairly strong compared to ALPA.
Massive retirements. Incredible upward movement. NB CA in less than 3 years WB CA in less than 10.
New hires are getting almost any base. 6 month aircraft lock. You can bid any base in training and will probably get it.

Thank you all for the input. I plan to stay west of the Mississippi and long-distance commuting for a year, while not ideal, would be something I can deal with.

It's always difficult to judge airlines because you start reading something critical and it turns into Alex Jones yelling about goblins. It seems like it's questionable if American will stay around with Delta constantly moving in on them and regionals giving way the LCCs, and like an idiot you'd think it was because of some measurable financial choices or business models, but in reality it's because their tweets are too woke.

To me, American seems to be in dire straits, and I'm not sure the seniority will be as good as expected since they will have a hard time growing while Delta keeps muscling in on their territory. If Delta does what American did and takes out a huge loan and uses it to expand more in AA territory instead of buying back stock, I don't know how AA would handle it. I think you should expect DL to keep growing. Not totally clear what they will do with international stuff(expand vs outsource).

Or another way to think of it; Delta has good management now, but here's the rub... that can change by next quarter. And delta has some ooooollllddd airplanes, 60ish 767's won't be cheap or fun to replace.

seniority progression here either has to be incredible (in line with current predictions) or the place will cease to exist in any form resembling what it is today. There are truly that many retirements

that’s not a helpful answer

do you live close enough to an American or Delta base such that it is much easier to get to one airline compared to another

I would love for that to be true because it would mean nearly all my flying career aspirations could be achieved in 10 years despite not really thinking about it until 2 years ago.

Unfortunately, D's old fleet prints money and AA burns it. D's fleet renewal will just put it that much further ahead. Management also typically doesn't vary that wildly. Even if DL were to deteriorate, it would probably be slow, as it has been for AA. Unless AA gets extraordinarily good at hedging fuel (which they completely quit) I don't see any way for it to improve its position outside of a brutal restructuring, or getting extremely lucky and smart.

Another thing about the debt. AA just needed to stop buying back stock. It wanted to increase share price while also changing the fleet. Any other airline need only recognize the foolishness of doing stock buy backs while having a large debt obligation. Simply renewing a fleet doesn't put an airline in AA's position.

It would be great if AA ran away with it and anyone going there could just take great seniority, great bases, and the promise of great pay. Maybe that will happen and Isom will be on the cover of Forbes with an interview about how he "turned it around." Who knows.

you never know. Delta was the laughing stock of the industry, then UAL, now AA. It’s cyclical.

You missed the AA CLT base, which I believe for the A320 is the largest bid status in the company. But, NC is full.

Or you can look at it another way…
 

While a rising tide lifts all boats, the most heavily laden ones tend to run aground first.

In the event of a recession or stagflation, which company would you rather be low man on the seniority list for?

Fair enough; I just don't think AA is that bad of shape right now. Yes, their debt stinks, yes their product stinks. But the fundamentals of the business aren't shabby; AA has the largest CC miles base, they have a super young fleet that keeps getting younger (and a bone to pick, you can't cut it both ways; AA re-fleeted and had to buy airplanes those cost money, so why does AA's re-fleet and debt any less brutal? Honest question- and to add to it- AA ordered in what 2018? cheaper by a decent amount than to order airplanes now. And how does their 777 and 787 cost more?) and they have a lock-in some decent to strong markets (don't laugh, Philly is a goldmine for them, as is CLT and a lesser extent PHX). I'm just saying, the management comes and goes and it will take a while to right the ship. And don't take this the wrong way- delta was a dumpster fire about 15-20 years ago (remember Song?) that wasn't a good idea- then again they all did it- here's looking at you TED....) What I'm saying is that delta is decent to good now, might not be that way for long. They ordered a TON of airbii lately and while the RASM is good, it's hard to maintain that forever. I think each of the big 3 does something brilliant and some pretty bad stumbling as well.

Just a quick google search on current Debt-as of 7/21
AA: 40b
UA: 36b
DL: 29b

I'd never tell someone which airline to go to. I'm just glad that SWA and JB never answered me when I wondered if I should leave US.

Now that is pretty amazing. 29b with the oldest of the 3 fleets. 40b with the youngest of the 3 fleets.

If you listen to complaints, you would think there was a more extreme difference. When the oldest fleet begins a serious renewal process, they could be equal to the 40b.

hey, watch it transworld, don’t tell that to any of the delta cheerleaders out there

I would say all airlines need to stop buying back stock.

AA has not seemed to derive much benefit from their younger fleet, and from articles I've read their margins are the slimmest which would point to problems in their fundamental business model, and in some cases they made most of their money selling frequent flyer miles or something. AA has the lowest operating cash flow. I think if AA had not bought back its stock it would be a great option for pilots now despite those things. Unfortunately, as we've seen now with Boeing and many other companies, when the business is directly run to increase share price instead of improving the actual business, it results in failure, and a confounding business model. Why did AA make money when it did well, why does it struggle to make any money other times?

Parker even admitted he didn't think they could catch D in profit margin for transporting passengers after multiple years.

To someone else that said no airlines should buyback stock, I agree. That would be a great concrete goal for the pilot unions to rally around to actually positively impact how the entities that govern our lives are run.

If the economy favors air travel for the next 5 years, I'd say AA is the place to go(as a pilot). If you think travel will take another hit in that time AA will almost certainly go down unless their business no longer involves flying airplanes or they have someone in the Whitehouse Cabinet. Would you be cool starting over at another airline in 4 years? If yes, obviously go to AA because if it works out you've made it, huge money, great schedule etc. If it doesn't, just go to the next place. No matter what you will be paid better than 90% of people.

The difference is huge when you look at assets and cash in hand. AA is way behind. Just look at shareholders equity. If AA liquidated tomorrow, it would be 10 billion still in the red. UA and DL are way above.

-Going to move to a base? then pick AA because our bases rock. CLT, PHX, MIA, DFW are great places
-Going to commute by air? then pick AA because we dont require 87 backups to get to work. 1, and it can be offline.
-Coming from the military and want a more relaxed atmosphere? pick AA. Just looking at those hat wearing sub commanders makes me feel sorry for them. Delta pilots look like the complete opposite of our Miami guys who run around with no tie or blazer and are super chill while also being the best pilots you will fly with.
-Don't want to say "wind check" every 10 seconds on final? come to AA because we realize the wind is what it is and it doesn't matter if it is a 8kt crosswind or a 10knt crosswind.
-Worried about debt and the future? Look at the silly number of old airplanes Delta has.
Delta: A220's, A320 family, A330's, A350's, B717, 737's, B767 family. 7 types.
AA: 320, 737, 787, 777. 4 types, that's it.
Delta is going to be in debt way past 40B soon and AA will be way under 29B soon.
-Want to drop to zero? come to AA. Want schedule flexibility? come to AA, the IMAX army will take your trips.
-Want crew meals? come to AA
-Want Sick if needed? come to AA
-Want amazing seniority progression? come to AA, hiring 5K pilots in 2022/2023. 5K! crazy. Go to Delta if you want to be behind a bunch of 25yr old former regional FO only pilots who got hired 3 years before you.
-Don't want to have to get a doctors not if you call in sick? come to AA.
-Want to complain about your employer or listen to cpt's tell you how great TWA was then come to AA
-want to be apart of a dysfunctional union? come to AA
-want to work for the soon to be CEO of AA who seems lost every time he speaks? come to AA
-AA is getting a contract in the next few months with profit sharing and other improvements.

Anyways do what you want but as someone who researched Delta really hard in the last year I wasn't all that impressed.

Yeah CLT too. Home of NASCAR. Isn't that you guys Bubba base?

Not sure what “AA will go down means.” I’d really worry about joint ventures if I were at delta.

You guys keep saying AA is going down. I was a pilot back when PanAm failed, and I clearly remember it. PAA had a little over 200 planes at their peak. AA has almost 900. Isn't there some point when you're "too big to fail"? Who's going to replace that lift? Even if it was broke up and bought in pieces like PAA was that lift wouldn't be replaced overnight. AA shutting down would severely cripple the US economy and transportation system so it will never be allowed to happen.

Worst case scenario is another Ch 11 restructuring and whacking of the union contracts, but even that has been largely curtailed by recent bk legislation. The pilot shortage will help. A crappy contract won't attract talent.

I really think some of you guys are feeding hysteria because it's contract time. You probably think inability to get new hires in the seats gives you leverage. Labor tends to overestimate that.

Enough of the hyperbole. I'm sure AA will continue to plod along just like it has. And when you're on the bottom all you can do is move up.

Disclaimer: I don't work at AA. Outsider with decades in this industry looking in

Get tired of winning and restructure/go bankrupt. Joint ventures/outsourcing does suck, but it seems like it is coming to AA too with the north east alliance. United is the only place as far as I can tell that isn't doing that. If the travel market stays strong and AA gets its debt controlled in the good times I think it will be fine and a great place to work. It could certainly happen, I just think people should consider the the possibility. Of the 3 choices for regionals I considered, 2 no longer exist. I got very lucky. The airline industry seems to favor a conservative growth strategy at every level. The best job security is of course to just fly boxes.

Too big to fail, implies leverage in DC and massive influence over the economy mostly only banks have. If only one airline actually needs to declare bankruptcy it will be allowed to happen. It will miss growth opportunities and the contracts will certainly not be industry leading afterwards.

No airline hedges fuel anymore. AA fleet is the most efficient. Delta just took delivery of the last old A321. The NEO sips fuel and has less weight restriction issues. Get with the program Delta.

Delta runs a great operation. AA does not. Things could change but we would need a Crandall like micro manager to fire the people not doing their jobs.

I just had a long delay at a huge base because they had no head sets for a legacy AWA aircraft. The mechanics brought every possible headset to the plane and none that would work. MD80 headset brand new? Check. 727 head clamp headset brand new? Check. Legacy AA Airbus headset? Check. We waited for an inbound AWA aircraft and they thankfully had 3. You can’t make this up. I wasn’t in a small outstation no maintenance base. We suuuuuuuuuck.

Go where you want to live. Best advice I can give you. Hoping Isom can turn this place around but have little hope.

P.S. yes it is me that is too cheap to buy a headset.

I love some friendly ribbing as much as the next guy, but let me clean up a few of your DL bullets:

With regard to cockpit culture, agreed that ATL has some whack-a-doo's, but the "put your newspaper away" is BS...guys read books, crush candy, and study the overhead panel just like I'm sure guys at AA and UA do.

Fleet: IIRC, about half of our most recent purchase were done in cash...making $6.6B in profit means they don't have to take loans out for everything. so our fleet renewal isn't going to rack up as much debt as people think.

Reroute: I'm a NB guy and I've be rerouted once in last 5 years....key is to avoid ATL...if your trip touches that place, then yea, all bets are off.

NYC: we have noobs going straight to the ER/320/737/717 in ATL.....in fact earlier this year, the plug of the entire seniority list was awarded ATL ER. Yes there are still plenty of NYC assignments but getting NYC isn't the absolute it used to be.

With regard to noobs leaving NY, the seat lock is irrelevant if you are just changing bases....plenty of people bid out of NYC < 1 year point because the seat lock is plane and seat specific, not tied to a base.

The 210 day conversion window is the standard....the 365 is an option, but a) company can only do it once per calendar year and b) the AE has to contain displacements....if they aren't reducing a category or closing up a base, then no 365 allowed. Plenty of stories of guys/gals bidding out to NYC before they were done with IOE. There is also a contract exception to change your plane after only 1 year...the remainder of your new hire seat lock would then be added to the seat lock of your new plane, so if you had 9 months remaining, your new seat lock would be 2 years 9 months.

You are cheap man.

Woke culture? pandemic illusion? you must be a joy to fly with.

Maybe he is a snowflake? Projection? Haha

Our union guys have been proudly saying something like this for years and you obviously bought it.

"Delta's scope is awful and ours is solid."

Then the Alaska and JetBlue deals happened and surprise surprise they stopped bragging about it.

Killing RJ’s vs killing WB’s.

will go down? If I pandemic didn’t “make it go down” what will? And while paying cash is great for us.. just remember corporate financing doesn’t work like for us plebs. And AA secured deals way earlier. You know before inflation.

"If the 999th cut didn't kill me, why would the 1000th?"
If they are truly too big to fail they should be leaning harder into financial degeneracy, buy a hotel chain and put a runway next to it. It's true that mere mortals are more limited in how they deal with debt than holy corporations, but there is still a limit. If literally every other airline is going to fail, yes AA will get a bail out. If AA and another legacy fail(United) yes they will get a bail out again. If it's AA by itself? I don't think so. While pilots have no real reason to want other airlines to collapse, it's naive to think the C-suite wouldn't all be steepling their fingers grinning for the others to fail, and trying to coax it.

Can you give me something to hang up the Delta hat on, that I can look at and say AA is changing things to make sure they are competitive again? Is there something concrete that you see AA doing differently in the future to actually make money? It can't just be "it hasn't kilt me yet, I'm too mean to die." I want to think AA will do well but I just don't see it. It would be convenient if I could. Losing New York and LA do not bode well, so what are the moves? I also feel like I'm seeing more volume from DL in ORD, but that could be my imagination.

What is up with sick policy? Do you guys always require a doctor's note, or only after a certain number of sick outs?
Also, any idea on expected growth once things normalize?

How many of AA "new" aircraft are the newest (MAX/NEO) generation of the aircraft? Last I read they pulled the trigger on new aircraft a couple years too early.