Historically the total revenue for of the airlines has been about 1% of GDP. Historical growth of GDP has been about 3%. Assuming no significant changes in regulations (single pilot?), scope, work rules, etc. 3% is a reasonable number over a long enough period of time.

GDP growth since 1900, by decade, has averaged 3.12%.

It hasn't averaged that since the 1990's. Since then it's been 1.9%, 2.4%, 2.4%. So 3% seems optimistic.

Airline industry tends to match GDP. A lot of the legacy growth disappeared and switched to the LCC's in the last 20+ years. Recent trends are back to the legacy carriers re-linking to GDP related growth.

When you look a/c orders, remove a/c turning 30 yrs old, the 'growth' is often around 3%.

https://www.crestmontresearch.com/do...-By-Decade.pdf

I’m probably not super competitive. But I’m curious how far off my numbers are from maybe pulling from AA. There are only two airlines I’d leave my current ULCC for.


1800 TT
800 ME 320/1 SIC 121.
825 ME tt

4 year, had ratp. 3.80 gpa.
2 year degree. CS

Alpa volunteer

pilot mentor with an org

2 total early Cx Fails PPL, IRA. One each. One was oral one was Flight. So not a repeated offense.

I do have the App and interview prep stuff done.

6 Letters of rec non-AA.

Idk man. Its not 2022 anymore. You'd probably need 121 PIC. I got hired in 2023 and had my app in since I was an FO and got the call pretty much the day I updated my app to 1000 121 PIC. Granted I dont volunteer and had a low B average with a pretty boring resume so YMMV

Recruitment says average applicant has near 5000TT 500-1000 TPIC (fwiw, unless you’re connected)

Not competitive. Just being honest. Job fair and meet and greets, along with making calls and getting AA internal recs is what matters when your resume is short.

Not sure where you are getting your info from but 1800TT is not competitive for a Legacy job. I don't think it was even competitive during the once in a lifetime Legacy airline hiring wave back in 22/23. Sure, there were a few people hired here and there but it was still the exception then the rule. These days I don't know anybody hired that low.

AA grows via ASMs not pilots, so slightly different than what we would assume. The real driver for us is block hours, more block hours equals more pilots. Block hours are up slightly YOY, what happens this year remains to be seen.

Total forecasted staffing has not changed materially since March 2024:

https://i.ibb.co/mFRBJDDr/staffing.png

Agreed. The widgets we produce, that the company and Wall St are interested in, is ASM's. As pilots we want more airframes flying more hours = more pilots needed. Increasing average capacity does zip for pilots unless it's feed by more w/b's.

So..... for us simpletons, would it be accurate to set the seniority Calculator to 3% or is this too optimistic?

Regards

Simpleton

That is an unanswerable question…could be -1% as well.

Can’t say, but it is reasonable

I'd think it's too optimistic. It's easy enough to make a better SWAG - go to the MIT Airline Data Project, click on 'The DATA', research several airlines (I'd recommend AA/DL/UA), click on the bottom link - employee data and analysis, and figure out what the actual growth rate is. Quick estimate was AA has approx 40% more pilots today than it did 25 years ago. That's 1.6% but on an annual basis it's 1.4%.

https://web.mit.edu/airlinedata/www/default.html

In Dec 2013 how many pilot were on the active AA list (not including furloughed)?

Airways had 3500 IIRC and the west was around 500 1500.

West really only had around 500 pilots going into the US/AA merger? Wild.

OK I was way off, total between US-E and US-W was around 5000. Maybe West had 1500?

Looks like AA had 8500 active (not furloughed) at time of merger, so combined was 13,500 in Dec 2013. If you believe long term staffing targets of ~16000, we've "grown" 20% over 12 years. And that includes the replacing of a lot of RJs with mainline equipment, something that probably won't continue.

So 1.4%, which is basically what Slice said.

2009 AA/US/AW ASM was 222.5 billion(?). 2025 ASM's was 299.4 billion (?). 34.6% over 16 years. That's a total change of 2.2%, or 1.9% annually.
Just showing that ASM growth, which is what Wall St and the financial people are interested in, is often greater than the pilot corps increase to create the additional ASM's.

Using your 2013 end of year numbers the AA/US ASM was 232.4 billion. 13 years later it's 229.4 billion. 29%, 2.2%, or an annual increase, again, of 1.9%.

It would be interesting to compare it to GDP. Years ago I think ASM growth for the industry was closer to GDP. Then, at least for the legacy airlines, it lagged, and perhaps 66% (2/3's) of GDP was the 'new' normal. With 1.9% AA's ASM growth totaled 29% over the 13 years 2013-2025. U.S. GDP was 30% higher. So the hope to relink legacy growth to GDP seems to be on track??? <amateur public math warning!!

I'm impressed you were able to find historical ASM's. Guessing a lot of the growth came from replacing 140 seat S80s with 172 seat 737s and up gauging the 156 "more room in coach" 737s to 172 as well.

I just flew with an FO she showed me MyFlightCareer.com they charge $5 but pretty slick… we used to have my AA career but I think he retired.

Also found out there is a free one pilotsenority.com both have good info

MIT Airline Date Project. Not related to some special skill that I have. I steal from everyone. ;-)

Airlines love increasing gauge. A bit more fuel burn to carry the weight and the increased passengers, if the demand exists, is a lot of extra profit even at low yields. Delta made $25/passenger last year? Through some ID90's on there and they're making more from each ID90 than they are for the average paying passenger.