AA 2nd QTR Profit - $1.3 B
07-23-2023 | 08:00 PM
#15
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Joined: Jul 2008
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07-24-2023 | 07:12 AM
#17
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Joined: Nov 2020
Posts: 2,231
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It's undetected sarcasm.....for as long as this industry has been in existence the pilot ranks have suffered through strikes and/or furloughs. As long as that has been the case there is always someone quick to tell everyone to "get their financial house in order", hence the sarcasm of saying that when AA is finally making a decent profit.
07-24-2023 | 07:33 AM
#18
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Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 4,110
Likes: 290
The stock market hit record highs 3 months before the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. Similar to the dot com bust in 2001, and the previous recession... and the previous.... Where will we be in 6-12 months? Nobody knows, but smart money (insiders, CEOs, executives) are selling off at record rates while retail investors with a 1 month outlook are piling in right now.... just like every time before. But this time is different right?
Let me rephrase. The US Government / Federal Reserve will never let what happened in 2008 as far as unemployment/massive foreclosures happen again. They learned from the event, and used that knowledge to stop what would've happened in 2020 with covid w/ 25%+ unemployment.
It's not politically feasible to allow for large scale unemployment. Inflation is a far easier pill to swallow.
7 of 8 recessions have been preceded by a runup in energy prices. If you see energy (read: gasoline) hitting $6/gal, economic cuts will begin. But keep in mind, even at that level, gas is well below its economic peak.
It peaked around $4.00/gal in 2008 which is approximately $6.00/gal in 2023. However, cars get almost 50% better gas mileage as a median than they did back then, when most of the cars sold were large SUVs getting 20 mpg or under (remember the Excursion? LOL). So the reality is, until they hit ~$9.00/gal, we're not where we were back then as far as gasoline taking that big of a bite out of household budgets.
Obviously, if expensive gas is not accompanied by an increase in economic activity, airlines will suffer greatly. Generally, the two are correlated (higher economic activity = higher gasoline demand/prices). This "recession" being talked about for over a year - I've never been concerned, mostly because it's always been something that happens out of left field no one sees coming vs a planned event.
Even if energy prices increase substantially, if we get to the point where it will cause pain on the American consumer - look to government "gas card" subsidies, mortgage moratoriums similar to the student loan deal, etc.
07-24-2023 | 02:00 PM
#19
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Joined: Aug 2014
Posts: 586
Likes: 22
I am likely one of the most pessimistic people when it comes to economic thinking on the planet. The 2008 financial crisis will never happen again.
Let me rephrase. The US Government / Federal Reserve will never let what happened in 2008 as far as unemployment/massive foreclosures happen again. They learned from the event, and used that knowledge to stop what would've happened in 2020 with covid w/ 25%+ unemployment.
It's not politically feasible to allow for large scale unemployment. Inflation is a far easier pill to swallow.
7 of 8 recessions have been preceded by a runup in energy prices. If you see energy (read: gasoline) hitting $6/gal, economic cuts will begin. But keep in mind, even at that level, gas is well below its economic peak.
It peaked around $4.00/gal in 2008 which is approximately $6.00/gal in 2023. However, cars get almost 50% better gas mileage as a median than they did back then, when most of the cars sold were large SUVs getting 20 mpg or under (remember the Excursion? LOL). So the reality is, until they hit ~$9.00/gal, we're not where we were back then as far as gasoline taking that big of a bite out of household budgets.
Obviously, if expensive gas is not accompanied by an increase in economic activity, airlines will suffer greatly. Generally, the two are correlated (higher economic activity = higher gasoline demand/prices). This "recession" being talked about for over a year - I've never been concerned, mostly because it's always been something that happens out of left field no one sees coming vs a planned event.
Even if energy prices increase substantially, if we get to the point where it will cause pain on the American consumer - look to government "gas card" subsidies, mortgage moratoriums similar to the student loan deal, etc.
Let me rephrase. The US Government / Federal Reserve will never let what happened in 2008 as far as unemployment/massive foreclosures happen again. They learned from the event, and used that knowledge to stop what would've happened in 2020 with covid w/ 25%+ unemployment.
It's not politically feasible to allow for large scale unemployment. Inflation is a far easier pill to swallow.
7 of 8 recessions have been preceded by a runup in energy prices. If you see energy (read: gasoline) hitting $6/gal, economic cuts will begin. But keep in mind, even at that level, gas is well below its economic peak.
It peaked around $4.00/gal in 2008 which is approximately $6.00/gal in 2023. However, cars get almost 50% better gas mileage as a median than they did back then, when most of the cars sold were large SUVs getting 20 mpg or under (remember the Excursion? LOL). So the reality is, until they hit ~$9.00/gal, we're not where we were back then as far as gasoline taking that big of a bite out of household budgets.
Obviously, if expensive gas is not accompanied by an increase in economic activity, airlines will suffer greatly. Generally, the two are correlated (higher economic activity = higher gasoline demand/prices). This "recession" being talked about for over a year - I've never been concerned, mostly because it's always been something that happens out of left field no one sees coming vs a planned event.
Even if energy prices increase substantially, if we get to the point where it will cause pain on the American consumer - look to government "gas card" subsidies, mortgage moratoriums similar to the student loan deal, etc.
07-25-2023 | 08:16 AM
#20
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 4,110
Likes: 290
Good points. Also the mergers have finally allowed the airlines to pass on increased gas prices to the consumers vs 2008. Airlines today could still be profitable at $150 oil, esp Delta/United/AA since their average passenger has a higher income than the LCC pax. Retiring boomers have a ton of wealth that they will be spending on travel in the next 10 years.
Like I said I am pessimistic but even I feel like things are going to be pretty good for a while. The amount of movement is going to really help morale out.
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