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Old 11-02-2023 | 03:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Brooklyn99
b) furlough buffer probabilities, and c) would I be reasonably able to upgrade in under 5 years or is this crazy short upgrade time an anomaly that will rapidly evaporate.
B) I was just looking at this again last night out of curiosity (my methods were Widget Seniority and our own internal site for AA). If you started now, you would be around 10,000 seniority at AA in about seven years. It would take 17 to hit the 10,000 mark at DL. You could be at the 50% mark in about 10 years at AA, as opposed to 20 years at DL. That is all assuming no growth for either. I would say that is significant when evaluating furlough probabilities.

C) This is always a moving target. Delta seems to already be on the upswing in terms of upgrade times going back up. AA upgrade times have been coming down across the board (1.5-2.5 years in most bases). Retirements at American will almost definitely keep upgrade times low for a long time. If you want to evaluate growth and external factors (age 67), that's anyone's guess.
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Old 11-02-2023 | 06:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Brooklyn99
Super appreciated. I did not realize upgrades were still sub 1 year, and not fully aware of jumpseat reservations at DAL, if I'm reading your post right. Is there an explanation for why captain is going so junior, because it seems statistically improbably given the way the hiring wave at DAL shook out?

By "18 hours call is a hell of a thing" you mean good, right? Or hidden gotchas?
It's a great thing. There's a reason why super junior widebody FO's are getting a line almost immediately in NYC... because the 18 hour long call QOL is very good assuming you don't get assigned short call (seems to be 2-3 times a month according to my classmates, and if you don't get used you get an extra hour of pay). Narrowbody expect to be on reserve when you're junior, especially out of ATL, but you'll still probably average 15 days/month off on reserve. If you do get assigned short call, you're almost always assigned a trip before you even get to the airport; it's often essentially a way for CS to bridge the gap between 2 and 18 hours.

As far as the junior captain upgrades, many people like QOL more and there are some senior FO's that make more than captains by rolling thunder/picking up greenslips (premium trips) and working the system, which isn't hard to do when you're senior (it's seniority-based).

If the commute is a short term thing and you're looking at moving to SLC anyway, I think the decision is a no-brainer.

Side note. Everyone talks about seniority when they talk about AA. Seniority = QOL and not getting furloughed. QOL is generally good across the board even when you're junior here. DL also avoided furloughing pilots during COVID. Food for thought.
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Old 11-03-2023 | 08:08 AM
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Originally Posted by Brooklyn99
This time it's about BNA. CJO's from both. Early 30s. Married no kids. Extended family lives in DFW, I own a house there, but we're going to live in BNA for awhile, and I hate the summers in Dallas.

I'm leaning AA...



Anything I'm missing.
nope you’re not. Definitely go to AA. You’ve missed the boat for delta. They’ve hired the most since 2014 and you’d maybe be a 330/350 capt for the last 7ish years of your career as the plug. Time to widebody fo is the about the same now and trending sooner at AA.

Don’t let the financials concern you. At this point, no major US airline will fail. Run to AA don’t look back.
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Old 11-03-2023 | 08:24 AM
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Originally Posted by Milksheikh
nope you’re not. Definitely go to AA. You’ve missed the boat for delta. They’ve hired the most since 2014 and you’d maybe be a 330/350 capt for the last 7ish years of your career as the plug. Time to widebody fo is the about the same now and trending sooner at AA.

Don’t let the financials concern you. At this point, no major US airline will fail. Run to AA don’t look back.
I love the 30yr prognostications as to the growth/reduction in the SL's. Nothing in this industry is static for 30yrs.

As it stands now:
If the poster wants to eventually move to SLC and/or SEA, they'd be a fool to choose to commute for 30yrs vs drive to work.

Will you get "more senior" at AA sooner, probably.

Will you commute to MIA, NYC, DFW forever, absolutely.

Now if your willing to change from SEA/SLC to say MIA/FLL, then going to AA is a no brainer. 30+ yrs of commuting will make a big difference on QOL.
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Old 11-03-2023 | 10:32 AM
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Thanks all. Sounds like my crystal ball is more about predicting my home address than industry technicalities. Time for some soul searching.
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Old 11-03-2023 | 12:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Brooklyn99
Thanks all. Sounds like my crystal ball is more about predicting my home address than industry technicalities. Time for some soul searching.
Yeah, it kind of is. That said, if you love BNA and want to stay there…do that no choose that way. Are your kids graduating in 6 years? Think they will stay in BNA? Want to live near them?…or if you don’t care bout living near them, what would be your dream city to live in and why? What would your wife’s dream city be? Have you visited more than just the nice tourist areas? Etc.
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Old 11-03-2023 | 12:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Brooklyn99
Thanks all. Sounds like my crystal ball is more about predicting my home address than industry technicalities. Time for some soul searching.
In about a year from now, you'll find the peace of mind in knowing that moving to DFW was the correct choice.

You might arrive at that conclusion sitting in a jumpseat...it happens.

For posterity.
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Old 11-03-2023 | 03:08 PM
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Originally Posted by BFMthisA10
In about a year from now, you'll find the peace of mind in knowing that moving to DFW was the correct choice.

You might arrive at that conclusion sitting in a jumpseat...it happens.

For posterity.
Do you have to be on mushrooms to come to this conclusion in a jumpseat?
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Old 11-03-2023 | 04:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Brooklyn99
This time it's about BNA. CJO's from both. Early 30s. Married no kids. Extended family lives in DFW, I own a house there, but we're going to live in BNA for awhile, and I hate the summers in Dallas.

I'm leaning AA...
Retirements/Seniority progression faster/furlough cushion....less as much at DAL, I think/behind the wave
More surefire quick captain upgrade....DAL not sure how long it will stay junior.
Fleet modernized already pre-COVID, low interest rates....DAL might incur more financial obligation later
Serious about paying down debt...DAL tbd
Reserve the jumpseat...ish.....although DAL has 18 hour callout with a 4 hour drive to ATL
9 to 11 flights a day to DFW....fewer with DAL where rest of my extended family lives
Could snoop for open time in DFW, NYC, DC, and CLT...maybe.
Parents house could be my DFW crash pad....or drive to ATL 4 hrs if needed worst case with DAL

Not worried about what airframe I get or how quick (if ever) to WB. Love to live in SLC or SEA someday again but not in the cards for 5 years at least/still a maybe. Mostly pondering seniority movement/security and probability of captain upgrade in under 5 years (absurdly selfish by historical standards I know)

My sense is that Delta is doing better on paper and has a good brand, but I see a lot of potential at AA going forward.


Anything I'm missing.
You mentioned that AA is serious in paying down debt. Delta is the one with less debt and is paying it down as fast as it can. Also the one that made more profit this last quarter and probably the sum of all year, delta.

Down turn might be approaching soon…already started at spirit, frontier, JetBlue, FedEx and ups. It will be here after next summer for all of us. AA furloughed pilots faster than everyone last time.
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Old 11-03-2023 | 04:43 PM
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Originally Posted by PilotJ3
You mentioned that AA is serious in paying down debt. Delta is the one with less debt and is paying it down as fast as it can. Also the one that made more profit this last quarter and probably the sum of all year, delta.

Down turn might be approaching soon…already started at spirit, frontier and JetBlue. It will be here after next summer for all of us. AA furloughed pilots faster than everyone last time.
This reads like advice from someone who gets 100% of their information from headlines.
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