US Airways Said to Develop AMR Merger Plan to
03-12-2012, 05:45 AM
#61
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Joined APC: Mar 2011
Position: A319/20/21 FO
Posts: 292
Saw a story this morning (sorry, I don't have a link!) that somebody has reserved about two dozen domain names that would be useful in the event of an AA/US merger. That may mean nothing (somebody uninvolved buying them to try to sell at a profit if it happens) or it may be a precursor to something. Who knows? But it does make for some interesting water cooler chatter ...
03-12-2012, 09:03 AM
#62
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Posts: 3,707
03-12-2012, 10:25 AM
#63
Banned
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Posts: 8,350
The AA/U merger is highly likely IMO. AMR sought the extention to fend off sources OTHER then U during their reorganization. Considering Horton and Parker's friendship and past history, does anyone think Horton would have insulted Parker recently with that "something's in the water in Phoenix" comment, unless they were on the same page, but it was in both's interest to deflect that possibility ?
Speaking of deflection, one also needs to consider the past with AMR and "statements" they make publicly. Only WEEKS before the C11 filing, Arpey said that although C11 was certainly a possibility, it wasn't on the front burner. Every analyst agreed AMR was a year or more from a possible BK filing, yet the whole time during the previous months, BK was obviously in the imminent direct planning phase. Not just labor got sucker punched on that one.
The merger will put AA/U as a player again domestically at LGA capitalizing on U's additional capacity and JFK will be strengthened as an International fortress. McCaskill-Bond will control mainline integrations, but the feed side is a different story. U has about 9 different regionals, many with larger RJ's already and many of those carriers will likely be phased out, especially those without larger RJ's already on their certificates. Not enough chairs for 10 regionals (U Express + Eagle) when the music stops. I doubt there will be any regional merging as AMR wants a multiple feeder whipsaw scenario with at least 2-3 carriers and perhaps 4 or even 5, all on staggered contracts. I've heard recently that AMR is in fact working out a deal to return all of Eagle's smaller Embraer's in exchange for E-175's and perhaps larger E-190's, but most or all of that will go toward other regionals then Eagle. Eagle will remain one of the players, but on a dramatically reduced scale with 47 CRJ's and perhaps more of those and Q400's (I've heard 1200 pilots as the approximate number). ALPA at Eagle tore up Eagle pilots transfer rights to other carriers if their flying/aircraft were sent elsewhere, but with the shortage of entry level regional pilots, the bottom 1800 Eagle pilots will likely have transfer abilities, just no seniority to take with them.
I think once leases and labor are dealt with, we'll see more rumblings about Phoenix fire water being swilled more frequently at Centreport. It's going to be a choppy ride for awhile though.
Speaking of deflection, one also needs to consider the past with AMR and "statements" they make publicly. Only WEEKS before the C11 filing, Arpey said that although C11 was certainly a possibility, it wasn't on the front burner. Every analyst agreed AMR was a year or more from a possible BK filing, yet the whole time during the previous months, BK was obviously in the imminent direct planning phase. Not just labor got sucker punched on that one.
The merger will put AA/U as a player again domestically at LGA capitalizing on U's additional capacity and JFK will be strengthened as an International fortress. McCaskill-Bond will control mainline integrations, but the feed side is a different story. U has about 9 different regionals, many with larger RJ's already and many of those carriers will likely be phased out, especially those without larger RJ's already on their certificates. Not enough chairs for 10 regionals (U Express + Eagle) when the music stops. I doubt there will be any regional merging as AMR wants a multiple feeder whipsaw scenario with at least 2-3 carriers and perhaps 4 or even 5, all on staggered contracts. I've heard recently that AMR is in fact working out a deal to return all of Eagle's smaller Embraer's in exchange for E-175's and perhaps larger E-190's, but most or all of that will go toward other regionals then Eagle. Eagle will remain one of the players, but on a dramatically reduced scale with 47 CRJ's and perhaps more of those and Q400's (I've heard 1200 pilots as the approximate number). ALPA at Eagle tore up Eagle pilots transfer rights to other carriers if their flying/aircraft were sent elsewhere, but with the shortage of entry level regional pilots, the bottom 1800 Eagle pilots will likely have transfer abilities, just no seniority to take with them.
I think once leases and labor are dealt with, we'll see more rumblings about Phoenix fire water being swilled more frequently at Centreport. It's going to be a choppy ride for awhile though.
03-12-2012, 10:46 AM
#64
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Posts: 820
Originally Posted by eaglefly
The AA/U merger is highly likely IMO. AMR sought the extention to fend off sources OTHER then U during their reorganization. Considering Horton and Parker's friendship and past history, does anyone think Horton would have insulted Parker recently with that "something's in the water in Phoenix" comment, unless they were on the same page, but it was in both's interest to deflect that possibility ?
Speaking of deflection, one also needs to consider the past with AMR and "statements" they make publicly. Only WEEKS before the C11 filing, Arpey said that although C11 was certainly a possibility, it wasn't on the front burner. Every analyst agreed AMR was a year or more from a possible BK filing, yet the whole time during the previous months, BK was obviously in the imminent direct planning phase. Not just labor got sucker punched on that one.
The merger will put AA/U as a player again domestically at LGA capitalizing on U's additional capacity and JFK will be strengthened as an International fortress. McCaskill-Bond will control mainline integrations, but the feed side is a different story. U has about 9 different regionals, many with larger RJ's already and many of those carriers will likely be phased out, especially those without larger RJ's already on their certificates. Not enough chairs for 10 regionals (U Express + Eagle) when the music stops. I doubt there will be any regional merging as AMR wants a multiple feeder whipsaw scenario with at least 2-3 carriers and perhaps 4 or even 5, all on staggered contracts. I've heard recently that AMR is in fact working out a deal to return all of Eagle's smaller Embraer's in exchange for E-175's and perhaps larger E-190's, but most or all of that will go toward other regionals then Eagle. Eagle will remain one of the players, but on a dramatically reduced scale with 47 CRJ's and perhaps more of those and Q400's (I've heard 1200 pilots as the approximate number). ALPA at Eagle tore up Eagle pilots transfer rights to other carriers if their flying/aircraft were sent elsewhere, but with the shortage of entry level regional pilots, the bottom 1800 Eagle pilots will likely have transfer abilities, just no seniority to take with them.
I think once leases and labor are dealt with, we'll see more rumblings about Phoenix fire water being swilled more frequently at Centreport. It's going to be a choppy ride for awhile though.
Speaking of deflection, one also needs to consider the past with AMR and "statements" they make publicly. Only WEEKS before the C11 filing, Arpey said that although C11 was certainly a possibility, it wasn't on the front burner. Every analyst agreed AMR was a year or more from a possible BK filing, yet the whole time during the previous months, BK was obviously in the imminent direct planning phase. Not just labor got sucker punched on that one.
The merger will put AA/U as a player again domestically at LGA capitalizing on U's additional capacity and JFK will be strengthened as an International fortress. McCaskill-Bond will control mainline integrations, but the feed side is a different story. U has about 9 different regionals, many with larger RJ's already and many of those carriers will likely be phased out, especially those without larger RJ's already on their certificates. Not enough chairs for 10 regionals (U Express + Eagle) when the music stops. I doubt there will be any regional merging as AMR wants a multiple feeder whipsaw scenario with at least 2-3 carriers and perhaps 4 or even 5, all on staggered contracts. I've heard recently that AMR is in fact working out a deal to return all of Eagle's smaller Embraer's in exchange for E-175's and perhaps larger E-190's, but most or all of that will go toward other regionals then Eagle. Eagle will remain one of the players, but on a dramatically reduced scale with 47 CRJ's and perhaps more of those and Q400's (I've heard 1200 pilots as the approximate number). ALPA at Eagle tore up Eagle pilots transfer rights to other carriers if their flying/aircraft were sent elsewhere, but with the shortage of entry level regional pilots, the bottom 1800 Eagle pilots will likely have transfer abilities, just no seniority to take with them.
I think once leases and labor are dealt with, we'll see more rumblings about Phoenix fire water being swilled more frequently at Centreport. It's going to be a choppy ride for awhile though.
The longer in BK the better chance AA pilots will be stapled to US list. IT will be same as TWA, USAIR will save American from Ch7.... Eagle is already going to be bought by Skywest, in exchange for 90% of feed for 6 years, unaware that AA will be merged into U.
03-12-2012, 10:52 AM
#65
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Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: 767er Captain
Posts: 12,109
Originally Posted by Wingtips
The longer in BK the better chance AA pilots will be stapled to US list. IT will be same as TWA, USAIR will save American from Ch7.... Eagle is already going to be bought by Skywest, in exchange for 90% of feed for 6 years, unaware that AA will be merged into U.
03-12-2012, 11:08 AM
#66
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Posts: 8,350
Originally Posted by tsquare
That's a pretty ugly scenario...
If Wrong's feed scenario were to occur, it would mean that virtually none of the current U feeders would survive as "Sky Eagle" would be doing 90%. That would also mean that larger RJ's flown by those U feeders would be sent elsewhere and those carriers have scope/transition language, unlike Eagle's which was gutted by ALPA. AMR doesn't want one feeder to do 90% of it's feed as then no whipsaw scenario is possible and that carrier could cripple the new AA/U in the future, Comair-style.
03-12-2012, 11:12 AM
#67
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Joined APC: Jun 2008
Posts: 8,350
Originally Posted by Wingtips
.... Eagle is already going to be bought by Skywest, in exchange for 90% of feed for 6 years, unaware that AA will be merged into U.
ROFLMAO.
Last edited by eaglefly; 03-12-2012 at 12:48 PM.
03-12-2012, 11:20 AM
#68
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Joined APC: Feb 2011
Posts: 820
AA pilots will be blamed for BK AA, they already are seen as the major cause by the Mainstream media. When things turn really south this fall, and USAIR comes to save the day, I promise you that it wont work out well.
Also AA will do anything to raise the cash by selling Eagle. The deal will be keep all Eagles current flying % of AA feed for 6 years if you buy them.
Also AA will do anything to raise the cash by selling Eagle. The deal will be keep all Eagles current flying % of AA feed for 6 years if you buy them.
03-12-2012, 11:37 AM
#69
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Joined APC: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,707
Originally Posted by eaglefly
.....but won't happen mainline-wise. There will be so stapling of either U or AA in any merge (even TWA wasn't stapled to AA in 2001). M-B ensures "fair and equitable", but what THAT means will be dependent upon arbitration. Although wrongtips would like to see that scenario (for whatever reason) he's only fooling himself (again) and obviously erronously thinks TWA pilots were all stapled. One needs to look at recent mergers to see the multiple realities, not one fantasy.
If Wrong's feed scenario were to occur, it would mean that virtually none of the current U feeders would survive as "Sky Eagle" would be doing 90%. That would also mean that larger RJ's flown by those U feeders would be sent elsewhere and those carriers have scope/transition language, unlike Eagle's which was gutted by ALPA. AMR doesn't want one feeder to do 90% of it's feed as then no whipsaw scenario is possible and that carrier could cripple the new AA/U in the future, Comair-style.
If Wrong's feed scenario were to occur, it would mean that virtually none of the current U feeders would survive as "Sky Eagle" would be doing 90%. That would also mean that larger RJ's flown by those U feeders would be sent elsewhere and those carriers have scope/transition language, unlike Eagle's which was gutted by ALPA. AMR doesn't want one feeder to do 90% of it's feed as then no whipsaw scenario is possible and that carrier could cripple the new AA/U in the future, Comair-style.
03-12-2012, 11:38 AM
#70
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Joined APC: Feb 2011
Posts: 820
Originally Posted by RJ Pilot
Good thing I declined to flow!
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