galaxy flyer

Pretty much unknown territory, it's never happened as I know. The union, if they called a strike could be held in contempt of court, fined and MEC jailed. If they really wanted to play hardball, they could send out US Marshalls to haul in some pilots and hold them in contempt. But at this stage bankrupting the APA isn't going to change things.

My guess, if the pilots "struck", the worst is AMR enters Chapter 7 and gets parted out; at the best, AMR and the BK court work out an acceptable job offer to the pilots under the Section 1113. Question is how much damage is done to the customer base while the two sides are at a standstill.

But, in the parting out option, what is the APA capable of doing to influence the merger possibilities? If they struck and brought AMR to liquidation, what acquirer would want to merge the lists on any terms? The pilots could be out in the cold watching Eagle guys get hired at Brand D or Brand US to fly old AMR planes.


GF

Pilotbiffster

I'm thinking AMR is too big to fail. There's not enough excess capacity in the industry to sustain a liquidation, and I doubt the government would allow air commerce to just fall apart. I could be wrong, dunno.

galaxy flyer

We said that at EAL, see how that worked out. Raise fares by 15% ans watch the capacity problem go away. The remaining carriers would by up any AMR equipment they could profitably use; DFW and ORD flying would continue, possibly under the US Air flag. MIA and Latin American flying will be sold to the highest bidder, I'd bet DL. It could liquidate, in the sense of be sold, not liquidated.

That has to be an APA consideration, how to maintain influence in any buyouts to give its members a future. ALPA was very ineffective in EAL's liquidation. NW and AA hired many, but just about nobody was integrated. A few at CO.

GF

HalinTexas

Reference APA's "blue flu" day in the late 90's. Major fine imposed although it was reduced. They could jail the union leadership for contempt of court. I don't really think APA wants to even consider this. It would most likely make things worse.

eaglefly

Well, I think the problem may be one of people simply resigning/quitting if the working environment gets bad enough. Apparently, they want to eliminate any chance of a lump sum if the pilots A-plan is frozen to prevent a significant (and rapid) exodus of pilots over 50 who are eligible to retire at 50 (5100 pilots !)

If the term sheet becomes reality, I'd expect a lot of pilots to simply leave, i.e., retire, quit or whatever you want to call it, even with no lump sum. Retiree medical is on the chopping block and non-rev travel is a joke for planning family vacations (cheaper to just join the heard and by the cheapest seats), so whay stay ?. Actually, most of the attrition may be from the middle and junior ranks as many senior and above the worst of the ****pile may milk their last years. This will be even worse for the company in many ways, as their most expensive pilots stay and they end up paying $$$$ in training costs for new-hires that will bail to UAL, DAL or a better gig at the first opportunity as they will have little invested in AA and can do much better elsewhere.

The whole point of their "pay banding" was to reduce staggeringly expensive training costs as pilots switch planes, etc., but AA may simply become a type-rating mill for pilots to stay a few years and then split as the senior pilots stay thus stagnating any chance of advancement as Eagle and other feeders and code-shares take over most of AA domestic as AA melts like ice cream in the sun. If pilots start bailing at excessive rates because they can't take it anymore, they'll have a major problem and once again, of there own making. I suppose they could run to the APA for relief, but I'd expect very little interest in cooperation at that point.

You want a 737 type for Southwest or an Airbus type and 500-1000 hours in type, AA may be a great school to come to, but when pilots are short in a few years, who will want to stay here swimming in glue at the bottom of the seniority list for an extended period of time under the worst contract among the major carriers ?

Think about it.

HalinTexas

Thought about it. (for that much) I disagree.

The "term sheet" is an opener. Negotiations will be ongoing. Even if the pension is frozen, there won't be lumps sums, so no one is going to retire early with no benefits and no income. Yes, the contract and the company will look completely different. Some may leave, but where are they gonna go? not many airlines hiring. Even if SWA hires a bunch, they're not going to fill up the classes with AMR quitters. Same for everyone else. If they've got a sideline business that's successful enough, good for them.

The USAir easties didn't bail after their gutting. It won't happen at AMR. They'll take their lumps before the 1113(c) is imposed, because the alternative is scarier, particularly if you're in your late 50's early 60's with little prospects.

NERD

I agree. Very few will quit and the company knows that. At Nwa we had a few senior guys go to a couple of Asian carriers and a few to Emirates. A few of the very junior went to Fedex and Ups. All in all not enough to make a difference. Your best hope is a strong union leadership/negotiating team that won't bend too much and a Pilot group that supports them. If they are strong and unified you can trust they will get the best that can be had. By staying unified you can get immediate changes after ch 11. The summer of 2007 "Bob" raised his ugly head at Nwa and by the end of summer we had an LOA or two which started the improvement of our contract. My hope is for y'all to accept nothing worse than our current contract at Dal. That should be your bottom line.

eaglefly

Yes, it's an opener. My point was if the term sheet becomes a reality. If we get a DAL or UAL situation, that wouldn't likely cause any significant exit. If we get at or worse then U (term sheet), then I think you'd be surprised at the number who might leave. The problem is AMR isn't negotiating. It seems they believe they can get the term sheet for the most part. If you're in your late 50's or early 60's, that IS the normal retirement age (or very close to it). They'd still have an A-fund/PBGC annuity and a B-fund to boost whatever they choose to do. If we end up working under a judges order (term sheet), we're employed at will and anything can be changed on a days notice after BK exit. AMR could drag negotiations out another 5-7 years like before till another contract, which is one reason they MAY like an imposed work order (term sheet) and supposedly aren't negotiating.

Horton's open to a merge after BK exit. Perhaps his plan is to get the work order, exit BK, merge with his buddy Parker and inherit U's pilot CBA across the board. A lot more guys will be commuting to crashpads under PBS and virtually no reassignment limits. That's a tough way for someone in their 50's and 60's to live.