This is why a US/AA merger wont work
 

US Airways spokeswoman sums it up perfectly:

US cant make as much money as the other legacies because of their hub locations and routes they fly, but they stay profitable because their costs are lower than other legacies(read: labor costs).

So if Parker raises everyone's pay according to the term sheets given to AA labor, then how will PHL/DCA/CLT/PHX remain viable? They wont. And that is why UAL and DAL have both declined any attempts at a merger with US in the past.

The 1113 term sheet, and bankruptcy process in general, is a horror show. I am sure it looks tempting to have someone show you the rates/rules that Parker has given, but there isnt any way to financially support those promises he is making.

Yes, Horton is an a** and his sidekick Lorenzo lawyer is trash, but they wont be around when the bankruptcy process is over. There will be someone new, and it wont be Parker or Horton. Getting in bed with US only assures another trip through this hellish BK process in 5-7yrs.

Sounds like a strawman argument to me.

Taking a truncated clip from a U spokesperson regarding CURRENT revenue disadvantages and representing it as a non-alterable situation, you then mesh that in with supposed assumptions that was the reason why DAL or UAL didn't merge with U (irrelevent) and THEN, add that on the basis of that, the U plan by Parker cannot be profitable due to his proposed labor costs with AA PILOTS. It's a carefully clipped sentance to which you then add an assumption (UAL/DAL motives) and then place the U term sheet economics and come to a certain (but, erronous) conclusion. Additionally, her comment didn't say "LABOR cost structure". Costs come from many areas like vendor expenses and fleet costs that are dynamic.

Hardly, Q.E.D.

The reality is that an AA/U merger would result in MAJOR realignment of current hubs, fleets, routes and frequencies and thus the economic model cannot be simply debunked (or validated) on such simplistic assumptions.

Jeez flyby, I'm not surprised someone added 1+1+1 and got 2, but I'm surprised it was you. :confused: Sounds like it's something you WANT to not occur as opposed to something that will or will not succeed on its own merits. Thus, one has to question objectivity here and suspect bias.

...or you could be a Jetblue pilot that just wants to see a codeshare in JFK.

Flyby1206 Status: [x] Told; [ ] Not Told

There have to be some tangible benefits of a merger beforehand, and I have yet to hear anyone make a case for it. Yes, US/AA will benefit the industry as a whole, by reducing capacity (PHL/DCA/CLT/PHX bye bye) and gaining pricing power... but how will that benefit labor at all?

It is really ridiculous to think that US has its cost advantage because it is saving pencils and paperclips in the office, as opposed to wage scales that are drastically lower than competition. US pilot costs per block hour are $100-300 million behind AA, DL, UA, WN, HA, AS.

You are correct there, my guess is PHX gone completely, and PHL cut in half. Some DCA slots traded/sold away. CLT is a useful domestic hub for the AA network, I will give you that, but I wouldnt hold my breath for CLT-HKG flying. JFK/LGA is slot restricted so limited growth there, ORD will see larger RJs, LAX will grow in a few years when they finish the TBIT, DFW has space to grow, but nothing AA cant do themselves.

Again, I reference the 25April-2012 conference call transcript where Kirby is touting the US/AA merger, but using metrics from UAL/CAL and DAL/NWA in his justification. That is a serious Apples-Oranges comparison:

US Airways Group's CEO Discusses Q1 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript - Seeking Alpha

How much of the US network wont be viable with increased costs? Honestly very little. And there is a looong gap between AA/US and a DAL, UAL type network.

We are all biased. I want to see AA suceed and grow and someday get hired to fly for them. That would be great. You, are seeing red and unable to think clearly after the actions by Horton and Co, so willing to jump at any chance to jab at them without thinking of the consequences.


I'd be fine if I never had to fly through JFK again in my life. We already have a ridiculous number of codeshares with other airlines, and the only thing that means for jetblue is that we will never do those routes.

Flyby.... What you are not realizing is that Horton absolutely WANTS a merger with USAirways - but he wants one only after exiting BK.

So, if given the choice - since we WILL eventually merge - I'd much rather do it on Parker's terms than Horton's.

In the end, AA will not survive as an independent. Neither will US. They both need each other. It will happen.

I know Horton has said he isnt opposed to mergers in general once they clear bankruptcy, but didnt know his feelings on US in particular. If that is the case (he wanting US post BK) then I can understand the support from AA unions at this time.

Im sure it will be a mess either way, but I truly hope for the best for everyone involved.

Toad [ x ]

What any of these people are stating publicly you should take with a very small grain of salt. This won't be the first time corporate leaders have stated one thing then turned around a few days, weeks, months later and done the exact opposite. Statements these guys make to the press are intentionality designed to have intentional consequence. Corporate execs aren't like politicians in that sense that they can say anythig with only "political consequences." For execs it's about stock/stake holder confidence and the "lawsuit" and "even "criminal" culpability is immensely more of a driving force in their work vs. that of a politician. These guys rarely say anything even 20% let alone 100% true. Everything they state to the press was pre-planned.

IMHO this whole merger has been a Parker/Horten plan for a while now. In fact I think the DAL slot swap was done for US to divest out of the NYC market to remove what would have been the only real anti-trust issue for this merger. My opinion, post merger PHX will stay, PHL and DFW are toast as hubs. But I have nothing but a gut opinion driving that feeling, no analysis to offer.

This is such short-sighted thinking. So, you're saying to the team whom you're not willing to give a chance, -no way-, while running to the arms of a midnight partner who promises the moon but hasn't extended those promises to his own team.

You're an AA pilot, and you're suggesting that you want to be paid well, not endure any pain, and by the way, get rid of the leadershipnteam I currently work for! I really love the loyalty exhibited on this AA forum.

I can take it from the US guys. For them it "appears" to be only upside from where they currently are, but for the AAer's here, this cutting off your head and upper torso to prove to management how wrong they are is pure lunacy.

Loyalty is earned, Tom. I'll understand if you keep trying to sell this bill of goods though.

If loyalty is earned, pray tell what do the West and East guys at US have to show for it. Oh yeah, Mr Parker did meet with them for a week and made the same promises he made with APA. I'm sure someone can produce a written copy.

New kind of loyalty I guess.

But you're right Eaglefly, loyalty is earned, but it's also rendered. You did sign on to work at AA. Why didn't you sign on at US from the start?

You bash our AA leadership team, yet heap praise on Mr Parker even though he has promises yet unfulfilled at his own company. I know, because the promises were made to the APA, I am sure Mr Parker will honor every last iota publicly spoken!

This is getting old, Tom. YOU are not who I fly for and I owe you no explanations about anything. I'm sorry if that dents your ego.

I'm neutral on Parker. I'd like to support our current management "team", but again, I have little to work with except the 1113 and Frank Lorenzo's former attorney. If something changes in the near future, perhaps 7200+ AA pilots will change their minds. I realize you're becoming quite panicky as this U merger situation becomes more likely by the day, but if it does happen, it will simply have been our destiny.

Perhaps it's time you stood shoulder to shoulder with your fellow pilots instead of throwing rocks at them from afar ?

Nope, not willing to give them ANY chance at all. I "gave them a chance" in 2003. They squandered MY money - money that was supposed to save them from BK - on brand new terminals that service our OW partners. They squandered MY money on hundreds of Eagle RJs that are a financial pit. They squandered MY money on millions in management bonuses. All for what? To end up in BK in 2012 and completely sever 70 years worth of bargaining for better lifestyles and pay at the drop of a judge's gavel.

I'm a PILOT who is currently offering my services to the highest bidder. I have no more brand loyalty to anyone anymore. If USAir is willing to give this dying place a shot at reinvigorating AA and trying to make it better while paying us much better than what our "management" team is offering, bring it.

Ahh, the definition of irony: the very one who accuses me of being a lunatic absolutely supports Horton and his team, whose business plan have earned them a top spot on tonight's Blue Collar Comedy rendition of "HERE'S YER SIGN".

Go back to writing letters to the Ft Worth Startlegram about sucking up to management. You two make a cute pair.

Is Tomahawk58 an AA pilot?

Although I'm not Parkers biggest fan, I wouldn't say he hasn't fulfilled his promises. What he offered is still and the table, it's just that the pilots have decided it's not worth giving up on the seniority fight for what's on the table. He has just taken advantage of the situation we handed him.

As far as him not including us in the initial talks, I kind of don't blame him. Time is of the essence and the previous USAPA leaders had absolutely no rapport with him. As I understand it, USAPA is now involved in the process and Parker told USAPA and APA that he didn't care how things were worked out, as long as the total cost stayed in the range of the term sheet.

Just to be clear - Tomahawk is NOT a line pilot at American

Wow, I'm glad you know what I do

We all know what you do on this forum. You spread management propaganda. Nobody really knows who is paying your salary, but it's not too hard to guess.

What we do know, is that you aren't a pilot, as you have claimed. That is against the terms of service of this web board, and for that you should be banned.

But honestly, since your position is indefensible, and since aa73 and Eaglefly are doing a great job rebutting your propaganda, I guess you're harmless enough.

Come to think of it, some guys might actually think you are being ironic.

Jayme,

You're right, Mr Parker's position is way more defensible than AA, after all, he met with his own team and brought them up to equal pay across West and East. Then, He gave them industry-leading rates before meeting with APA for a week. Then, He gave them furlough protection before meeting with APA. Then, He gave them an iron-clad broad-based agreement before meeting for a week with the APA.

You're right, I don't know what the heck I was thinking. The US option is totally defensible and imminently more believable. It's only propaganda if it's coming from AA......right, got it!

As to whose paying me, it's the same AA that pays you if you're an AA pilot, if you're aren't, it doesn't matter. And the beauty of it is, I haven't had an AA check bounce in the 23plus years I've been here.

Diehard AAer for life and proud of it :)

From what I've read here, you seem to be holding on by your finger nails. From what I gather, your group might be the first to be shown the door. Desperation manifests itself in obvious ways.

That's what you get for believing a lot of what you read here. I won't be going anywhere for at least the next 10plus years. If that upset some, too bad. It's laughable what some choose to believe from an emotional standpoint. Never let the facts cloud one's emotion.

Focus on the issues, and forget the personalities!

Could you be a bigger *****? You support essentially the same management team as before minus Arpey. All the talk of raising revenue by billions that your dream team is espousing. Why the F$$% have they not tried that since your 2003 capitulation? Clue, they are full of it and are out of airspeed and altitude. If it was so easy to increase revenue by 2B a year, it would have been done. They have no plan but to have labor pay for their mistakes. The sad part is that you are buying into it. Just admit it, that you are safe in your seniority and don't care about those below you. You want to just make it through to your retirement(wishing it gets frozen). At 23 years you were probably a bit too young to retire early and take the lump sum, too old to start over but are willing to throw the junior pilots under the bus to suit your needs. Doesn't surprise me from a late 80s AA hire. Plenty of airlines hiring without a horrendous B scale but you went there. Either got turned down or never offered an interview elsewhere.

Nerd -

Of course I'm safe at my seniority level and and it's an earned one. This is my company and I'm here because I chose to be here and I'm quite proud of that fact. What part of my loyalty comment didn't you get?

You're right, I have supported the leadership team headed by Gerard during his tenure, after all, he spent his entire career(30 years+) at AA. I also supported Mr Crandall's team before that.

Life for me has never been about quick fixes, selfish expediency, or pie in the sky dreams. If that causes you consternation, so be it.

AA has been an incredible airline for more than 80 years and will continue to be so.

Diehard AAer for life and proud of it :)!

I do think a US/AA merger will work.

AA/LCC merger will represent 29% of all capacity in the US. Horton says AMR will grow its international capacity by 7%; the aircraft are on order, US Airways can feed that growth and there is plenty of room for additional competition in the pacific.

So if the powers that be decide Parker/Kirby is the effective answer to run AA you'll support them 100%?

They're not AA yet and hopefully never will be.

Sorry, don't trust or want to work for AMR any longer - unless they give me a real pay raise and new management. Promising to lay me off or stagnate me as an FO fo 36 years just isn't doing it for me

A 20 year FO..

You don't appear to be interested in what's best for AA, you appear to want Horton to stay in power.

I'd love to hear why you think Horton's plan of not merging until later is better than merging now? Who gains from that? Does that really make AA stronger ASAP?

I do indeed want Horton to stay at the top. He has been the CEO less than six months, but I believe he does have a strong vision for the future of AA. Plus, he's just isn't the kind of guy who'd form a tryst in the middle of the night, while neglecting his own team as Mr. Parker and Mr Kirby have done and continue to do.

The US guys aren't pilot aren't even allowed in the room let alone at the table. That's certainly not the kind of place I want to be.

Loyalty, duty and honor are NOT traits of convenience.

Diehard AAer for life and proud of it.

Cheers :)

Tomahawk will you quit if Horton is out?

[QUOTE=captfred;1187703]Tomahawk will you quit if Horton is out?[/

I will retire at 65 which will be in 10.5 years for me. Thanks for asking.

Things just keep getting better with the APA. This is a cut and paste from another forum. It appears the APA leadership and Mr Parker are right at home in doing back room dealings:

"Well, now that the details have been released about the T/A with LCC management, efforts are underway to stop the TA in its current form in its tracks.

On May 7th, in closed session, the APA leadership unceremoniously stripped the APA membership from their right to vote on any new TA's.

This only came public a short while ago.

As the details, or "Term Sheet" were made public, due to many "no way in hell" aspects of the TA, members have voiced their opposition to the deal.

While over 7500 pilots signed a "No confidence in AMR management" petition, many were shell shocked that they lots their right to vote on the agreement.

Efforts are underway to overturn the boards actions in removing individuals rights to vote.. We are within the 100 day abeyance period to do so and a formal campaign is being finalized."

I'm sure the TA would have passed... (sarcasm intended). I do feel bad the APA is hampering your efforts to sell out all the junior guys.

T58 -

Horton's plan - 1420 less pilots by 2014(court testimony)

Parker's plan - keep all the pilots.


What "strong vision" are you thinking of?

That isn't what the US with APA says! In fact, there is no furlough protection in the term sheet for the US folks and a promise that an attempt will be made. But hey, this is only about what's good for the APA. The pilots are the only ones who matter here.....got it.

Wow, I'm usually a lurker on these boards, but feel compelled to comment...-I went through all the fun and games of the DL/NWA SLI merger (DL side)....I have seen a lot of cool-aid drinking/ management apologists on the DL side over my 26 year career....but I have never seen the likes of Mr. Tomahawk here....wow....He makes the worst cool-aid drinker I ever saw at Delta look like....Abbie Hoffman by comparison....It's kind of frightening to think he actually could be an AA pilot....not likely though...:eek:

Wiggy,

You've been at DAL 26 years which is admirable. Why did you choose DAL 26 years ago?

I admit whole-heatedly to drinking AA cool aid. It's my company, and it's been a great career with a few hiccups over course of my 23+ years here, but there isn't another airline I'd choose to work for. How's that for loyalty! I suspect you feel the same pride in Delta.



I'm an AAmerican after all and proud to be so :).