You should realize that group 4 CA currently is probably 25 to 30 years depending on which side you're on. So if it is 13 to 17, that's pretty dang good compared to the last 15 years.

I was in that group. Haven't heard anything except the "we will get back to you in late summer " email

Junior Group IV CA currently is about the top 15% of the list. Life is pretty good if you can get that senior that fast.

Group II CA is probably going to take about 8 (+/-) years.

Does that mean a new hire as of today can hold Junior Group II CA in (+/-) 8 years?

On the LUS side, yes, as long as the east list doesn't get combined with the west or LAA.

We will give a free prep session to the person who gives the correct answer to this question.

Disclaimer: Answers have to be submitted by 9pm EDT tonight. CIC has right to define GroupII in 8 years. CIC has authority to claim "wide-eye" syndrome.. CIC may/may not be in business at the time answer must be determined. ;)

Perspective
 

Just some numbers for some perspective on the amount of retirements at AA. I don't think Delta is too far behind…

34. Hired at US Airways early last year post merger. Assumes 15,500 pilots. I'll be at..

50% in 2024 (9 years)
40% in 2026 (11 years)
30% in 2028 (13 years)
20% in 2030 (15 years)
10% in 2033 (18 years)

I'll retire in 2046 if I make it that far. While I didn't come here for the upgrade time, the # of retirements is staggering. If you get hired at any of the Big 3 in the next few years, you'll have a great career*!

*Knock on wood. F*ck, I hope I didn't just jinx us all...

Group 2 CA is going at about 63% on the east list right now.

Anyone care to take a guess on when the next class will be after the June 21st one?

Typically around 58% on the AA side. I'm guessing it will drop even lower(more junior) as additional long haul flying jobs keep more guys sitting FO on the big jets.