swaayze

Non-issue. I (early 2014 hire) was to be at 50% starting my 11th year. Now I will be at 50% starting my 11th year. The progression to wide bodies will be slowed some since LUS/LAW brought relatively few, but whooptie-freakin-do. I am Blessed to have "enough" as a measly NB FO living in domicile.

More importantly, IF the individual pilots here can just remember that we each had no real hand in the outcome, and that each group had winners and losers, and IF we can keep our own 12yr-old-inner-selfs in check and not be punitive and/or miserable towards each other, THEN it will be an good job with good progression. I suspect there will be some less than ideal crew pairings for a few years but overall, as a newhire, the SLI shouldn't be a factor.

Marlin

Capt upgrade at LAA, before and after the SLI, is at 65% seniority . At least at LAA , that has gone from 18-20 years to 16, and will continue to drop . Go with the first to hire you.
Retirements starting next year go to ~450, and increases by ~150 ish going forward , before falling off a cliff in about 5 years
Good luck
Joe

Sliceback

Retirements - 3200 next five years.
2800 the next three years.
The next three years are roughly 850, 850, 650. That's the end of 2027.

Roughly half the list retires in a nine year span.

A guy hired today needs about 5,000 retirements until he can upgrade at the junior base. That's where the 7.5 yr estimate comes in. 2024. But wait, there's more, for three payments of just $9.95 you'll get 3,300+ retirements by the end of 2027. So the last guy hired in 2017? Probably can upgrade at the junior base in 2025. 2018? Upgrade in 2026. Hired in 2019? Upgrade in 2027. Notice the trend? We're retiring guys faster in 7 yrs then we're hiring today. The upgrade time might occur sooner for a guy hired in 2017/2018 vs a guy hired in 2014/2015. Crazy.

Standard public math warning, subject to global warning, sun spots, age spots, etc, etc.

Growth is a hope, age decay has never been stopped... except on the internet

Sliceback

Peak years - 2020 - 2026

800+ retirements each year peaking just short of 1,000 in 2023/2024.

buddies8

Please just her image makes me cringe

DesertDog

Misogyny run amok. We'll vote for a crackpot before a well qualified woman.

DD

Sandhawk

We'll vote for a crackpot before voting for a pathological liar who has done absolutely nothing positive for this country and doesn't think that the loss of 4 American lives is that big of a deal even though it was due to her and Osama's inactions...

FIFY

andrewtac

I think with his persistence he was baiting folks as partisan politics are prohibited here. I almost replied last time.

Sliceback

Did they apply at AA ??

justfun

sliceback.

that % may be a line holder for the 777 in MIA/LGA/LAX but not in DFW. As to the 787 the junior guys are about 17 years on property. The junior line holder is about 22-24 years on property.

Justfun
787/fo