Name User

They want to hire 1,000 guys next year - anyone know why? Retirements are no where near that level.

Apparently UAL is telling guys they want to hit 1,000 aircraft by 2020 and 17,000 pilots.

This money we're getting now - treat it like lottery winnings. Pay off everything. Live a simple life. The happiest guys I've ever met in this industry didn't need it to continue living.

PRS Guitars

A 10% reduction would be 1,400 pilots. Which would require a 3 year hiring freeze. they are talking about increasing the hiring next year. They already have gone from 500 to 650 to 750 and now I hear 800 to 1,000.

I m with you on the furlough fund. I don't have it yet but am building it as we speak. Also building a stuck commute slush fund for when I'm left behind on a weight restricted flight (or whatever). I'll just turn around, go home and enjoy my extra time off.

Thedude

Excellent advice for a new hire.

swaayze

No. I think ~ 10% is already a done deal in the absence of growth, but will be pared down thru retirement attrition. Throw in a significant recession (think 2008) or a 9/11 type day and I could fathom a total reduction of 2500-3000 from recent highs.

Do I think it will happen? Not really and I obviously hope not, but it is more than a remote possibility IMO. But again I've been down the road before a couple of times so I'm probably just overly cautious/guarded.

We are hiring over retirements because they have a huge potential training bubble upcoming with movements and increased retirements and they have to try to get ahead, because they may not have the capacity keep up with retirements in a few years.

I'm just a guy with an cautious opinion; no inside info, so I could be way off and I hope I am. I just know we haven't been hiring near the numbers of DAL and UAL for some reason and I think that's part of the reduction I speak of (IOW some of the first 10% is already behind us and was essentially invisible as we were hiring, just not to the extent we otherwise might have been). It's a welcome sign that hiring is picking up.

andrewtac

Could that hiring more than retirements have something to do with not everyone waits until 65?

Cheddar

Kirby and Haywood are there now, I wouldn't worry about United. Kirby lives for RJs and Haywood's and her old firm were pushing for "Shrinking to profitability" during the most explosive profits the industry has ever seen.

But yes, live like it ain't going to last, been there before


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Marlin

Kirby does indeed love RJ's... he spoke multiple times at our video crew news about how rj's, and more seats in them were good for our careers, but we just didn't understand !! I bout threw up in my mouth.. "uh, excuse me sir, have you been to ORD, or DCA? Those rj's have been splendid for those guys that used to fly there as mainline guys. Give me a break, the regionals are struggling, delta and united seem to see the elephant in the room, and are making strides toward alleviating the upcoming feed problem. AA and Kirby (now maybe united ),.... not so much!!
Joe