American Fleet Projections
 

Anybody have timelines for our future deliveries and retirements? I am only able to piece together some of the picture. Using back of the napkin math, it seems like 2015/16/probably 17 will be net losses. then maybe a push at best in 18. After that should be a decent amount of growth (coincidentally that's when retirements really pick up).

Here is what I see (correct me if I'm wrong)

Retirements:

S-80s--58 left (all to be gone in 2017)
E190--20 left (all to be retired by the end 2019)
A330-300--9 Left (all to be retired by 2018)
757/767--This is one I can't figure out
A320--I've heard we'll be retiring some these, not sure

Deliveries:

737-800--22 deliveries left
737-Max 8--100 deliveries starting in 2017
A321--22 deliveries through 2017
A321 neo--100 starting in 2019
787-800--3 deliveries left
787-900--19 deliveries left
A350--22 deliveries starting in 2018?

Does anybody know the timeline on these deliveries? how about the retirement of the 7576? On paper it seems like a pretty good increase starting in 2019 (I know, too positive for APC, and blasphemy on C&R) . We would need to hire 1200 to 1500 a year to keep up with acquisitions and retirements starting in 2019.

I thought the 80 was through 2018 now? I've also heard that the oldest 73 is older than the youngest 80. Don't know if it's true. But I would imagine the older 73s are going away soon like the 320s.

Yeah that's true. Youngest S80's are 99's. We have 24 99' 737's and 76 total 737's that are either 99', 00', or 01'. then they jump to 2009 vintage.

We have a bunch of 319's that are that age, but haven't heard they'd be retired. I'm not sure.

Since Kirby has left, everything is subject to change. Most of the fleet demographics were dictated by him and his team.

I've heard, no facts, that the 330's will not be retired now, the 80's will stay longer, the 190 is not going away so fast. It's all rumored here-say but it all started 5 mins after he was gone.

I've also heard the 350 will be coming sooner than later....

TIME WILL TELL

Primary reason behind the S80 retirements isn't their age, although that plays a role. It's their efficiency. A '99 model 738 is still going to be more efficient on a seat-mile basis than a '99 model MD-83.

I have also seen that the S80 fleet sticks around into 2018, maybe a bit beyond. I've heard the 330-300 and E190 retirements are pushed off till 2019. The 330 retirements will happen as we bring on the 350.

Most if not all the 320s will be gone by then as well. The 738 basically fills the same role.

I've heard rumblings of the 787 options (50-ish) being converted to firm orders. That's about it.

Not sure if you heard, but Kirby complained on the United investor call a few weeks back about having to commute from DFW to ORD on an RJ! Classic huh?! Will probably turn out like the ex wife that finally decides to hit the gym AFTER she gets dumped for some hot chic who is in shape.

S80 until end of 18, maybe even 20

320's going away, due to 738 does same thing (I think they are old anyway)

330s staying longer

Hope the 787 converts to firm orders and the 350 comes sooner!


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I am curious about the 757/767 fleet as well. There's a lot of flying those jets do that the other fleets can't accommodate, particularly the long, thin routes and the special airports with the seat numbers they need.

They will probably be around until the 350 deliveries start and the 787 deliveries finish. The A321 Neo LR is an unknown and we don't have orders for that yet, so who knows how long the 757/767 will stay around. I have 6 years left as of tomorrow, I figure I'll be flying a group 3 or better Boeing until I pull the plug.

Parker , at the most recent crew news, responded that the RJ lift issues (staffing)were the reason for delaying the 80 retirements, Apparently our top management is still enamored with the cheap /unreliable lift.
Joe