American Fleet Projections
 

Anybody have timelines for our future deliveries and retirements? I am only able to piece together some of the picture. Using back of the napkin math, it seems like 2015/16/probably 17 will be net losses. then maybe a push at best in 18. After that should be a decent amount of growth (coincidentally that's when retirements really pick up).

Here is what I see (correct me if I'm wrong)

Retirements:

S-80s--58 left (all to be gone in 2017)
E190--20 left (all to be retired by the end 2019)
A330-300--9 Left (all to be retired by 2018)
757/767--This is one I can't figure out
A320--I've heard we'll be retiring some these, not sure

Deliveries:

737-800--22 deliveries left
737-Max 8--100 deliveries starting in 2017
A321--22 deliveries through 2017
A321 neo--100 starting in 2019
787-800--3 deliveries left
787-900--19 deliveries left
A350--22 deliveries starting in 2018?

Does anybody know the timeline on these deliveries? how about the retirement of the 7576? On paper it seems like a pretty good increase starting in 2019 (I know, too positive for APC, and blasphemy on C&R) . We would need to hire 1200 to 1500 a year to keep up with acquisitions and retirements starting in 2019.

I thought the 80 was through 2018 now? I've also heard that the oldest 73 is older than the youngest 80. Don't know if it's true. But I would imagine the older 73s are going away soon like the 320s.

Yeah that's true. Youngest S80's are 99's. We have 24 99' 737's and 76 total 737's that are either 99', 00', or 01'. then they jump to 2009 vintage.

We have a bunch of 319's that are that age, but haven't heard they'd be retired. I'm not sure.

Since Kirby has left, everything is subject to change. Most of the fleet demographics were dictated by him and his team.

I've heard, no facts, that the 330's will not be retired now, the 80's will stay longer, the 190 is not going away so fast. It's all rumored here-say but it all started 5 mins after he was gone.

I've also heard the 350 will be coming sooner than later....

TIME WILL TELL

Primary reason behind the S80 retirements isn't their age, although that plays a role. It's their efficiency. A '99 model 738 is still going to be more efficient on a seat-mile basis than a '99 model MD-83.

I have also seen that the S80 fleet sticks around into 2018, maybe a bit beyond. I've heard the 330-300 and E190 retirements are pushed off till 2019. The 330 retirements will happen as we bring on the 350.

Most if not all the 320s will be gone by then as well. The 738 basically fills the same role.

I've heard rumblings of the 787 options (50-ish) being converted to firm orders. That's about it.

Not sure if you heard, but Kirby complained on the United investor call a few weeks back about having to commute from DFW to ORD on an RJ! Classic huh?! Will probably turn out like the ex wife that finally decides to hit the gym AFTER she gets dumped for some hot chic who is in shape.

S80 until end of 18, maybe even 20

320's going away, due to 738 does same thing (I think they are old anyway)

330s staying longer

Hope the 787 converts to firm orders and the 350 comes sooner!


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I am curious about the 757/767 fleet as well. There's a lot of flying those jets do that the other fleets can't accommodate, particularly the long, thin routes and the special airports with the seat numbers they need.

They will probably be around until the 350 deliveries start and the 787 deliveries finish. The A321 Neo LR is an unknown and we don't have orders for that yet, so who knows how long the 757/767 will stay around. I have 6 years left as of tomorrow, I figure I'll be flying a group 3 or better Boeing until I pull the plug.

Parker , at the most recent crew news, responded that the RJ lift issues (staffing)were the reason for delaying the 80 retirements, Apparently our top management is still enamored with the cheap /unreliable lift.
Joe

Latest I'm told wrt the E190's is no reduction in the fleet until 2019.
So 2 more years until any reduction.

I've noticed when they got rid of the first and last banks, they've upgauged the 170's to 190's due to cutting seats. Looks like it's starting in Dec but is in full force starting Jan. I can't imagine they are getting rid of the 190's without a game plan.

Is there 1 330 still doing ORD-DUB? Is that fleet still rumored to leave PHL for ORD/MIA/?

With the 76T bid status going away, will that fleet begin to shift numbers in different domiciles?

The 76T status is going away because the company finally agreed to train the LUS pilots on the flat panels.

Why are they getting rid of A320s? Didn't American make history by making the largest Airbus order one year?
New A319s, A320s, and A321s plus the old US Airways jets right?
Anybody wanting Airbus today should go to AA is what it looks like to me?

One reason probably is those 320s are oooooold. The second is AA only purchased 319s and 321s and therefore anything they didn't choose doesn't fit their model. Frankly, as long as they have a net gain of aircraft and they pay the same, I don't care what kind of an 320 family it is. Hey APA, let's try to get the 321 into group three pay. If the rumors of removal of the mid cabin lav are true and they pack in even MORE passengers, they're pretty much in 757 territory *(Yes, I am well aware the 757 is a way more powerful airplane and NOTHING is REALLY in 757 territory.)

Another reason could be that it's a redundant aircraft. The 737 holds 160. The 320 holds 150. There are almost 300 737s in the fleet and 70-something 320s.

Like the previous posters said - 320 overlaps with the 737 and, at least some of them, are old.

^^^yep to all three.

320 is old

320 overlap with 738

I think everything coming now is a 321 (321NEO in 18ish).

My question is what do we do about the 100-130 seat markets?





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As for the total cost to operate the S80, it's been said many times its our most efficient airplane under 400 miles. Those that still have leases attached to them aren't any more than $1500 a month. Fuel and maintenance on the other hand, they're pigs. I'd like to say I enjoyed my time on the 80, but I'm enjoying my time off of it more!


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How long until you start flying the CRJ900s and 175s at mainline?

Probably very close to the time Glaciers entirely overrun Hades.

That's hilarious.

"The 2000+ NM ETOPS RJs are coming in hot!"

The admiral may need to work on his delivery but he's not wrong with his information.

It shouldn't be. Take back your flying.

Yes, he is. Often.

Heard Airbus is pushing the A330 neo due to A350 delivery timeline problems.

The letter on aapilots seems promising for 2017

Yea bc it's that simple. Obviously I'd love to see all the regionals disappear.

I will second that.

He may be dramatic but he serves a good purpose. His message needs to get out to most of the LAA guys who seem to have no clue that we are so far behind simply because they've never had any work rules. Most of the new hires (besides the flows) are clueless too.

Let me sum up contract 2020 in a nutshell. DL/UA+3% with no fixes to reserve, work rules or profit sharing. Maybe maybe maybe a token average calendar day fix but highly unlikely. You heard it here first.

I agree, it's unfortunate, but most have no idea that our work rules are so far behind the current industry standard.

I have come to the conclusion that there are a lot of pilots at AA that either have a mental disorder. There is just no possible way these guys could be this dumb . I refuse to believe it. Had an MIA AA guy on the junmpseat back when the contract vote was going on. He asked why I was going to vote no. One of the one hundred reasons was LTD. He said "why would you want to go out on LTD?" I was speechless. This guy isn't the only guy that has left me speechless. I'd say 85% of the AA dudes I talked to left me scratching my head

+1

But when I vent on here (my own experiences), I get accused of my unfounded negativity.

Whiners!! AA is awesome. Just ask any AA pilot.


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' cause they've always done it this wAAy!

If it was good enough for Lindbergh....

You guys are your own "we hate LAA pilots" back-slapping, high-fiving fan club. Jeez, man....

I've said it before - as have others - the vast majority of LAA pilots recognize that this place has serious issues - operationally, culturally and contractually. We need all of it fixed. Almost all of us know and acknowledge this.

However, you guys just love to generalize all of us and continually openly insult us. How do you think that could possibly go over with us? We're supposed to just sit here quietly while the worlds most enlightened pilots continually insult everything about us personally?

As has been said already - the extremists over on C&R do not represent the thinking or mindset of the average pilot here, so don't assume that what you read in that cesspool reflects how the other 99.8% of us feel.

I personally think that you are not part of the majority of LAA guys I have to jumpseat with.