I totally disagree, self driving cars, and fully autonomous aircraft are orders of magnitude more complex than single pilot. As someone who programs in Pyton, and R for ML, the claim of autonomous items by manufacturers is dubious at best. However, Boeing really needs a gimmick for selling its new 797, or more importantly, a replacement 737 that can compete with Airbus. There will never be fully autonomous aircraft until AI progresses to biological systems, which isn't in our lifetimes.

This isn't about eliminating pilots, it's about streamlining the airspace system so a Machine learning assisted autopilot, can fly the aircraft direct to destination, without any separation criteria. Doppler Shift Lidar can actually see the wake from other aircraft. However, you still need someone in the cockpit to manage the system. The AI is essentially replacing ATC, not the aircraft operator. For safety's sake, aviate, navigate, communicate, will be reduced to just aviate.

We are already screwed with FAR 117, because once the FAA approves single pilot, even if the PWA requires 2 pilots, one of the pilot's duty periods, doesn't count against the FAR limits. How long will that contract item last, when the company is putting pilots on trips with 18+ hour deadhead days? This is already happening now, it happened to me.

 

Neither the Starship Enterprise nor the Millennium Falcon were single pilot or autonomous. Could a computer complete the Kessel Run in less than 12 parsecs?

 

This may not be far off the mark. You can't go single pilot until the automation can *reliably* handle the 6-8 pilot incapacitations which occur in the US each year. That means full-auto needs to be ready for prime-time before you go single pilot on pax airliners.

But there will be a single pilot during the transition, that will last some number of years until they demonstrate the reliability of the automation. My guess is a few years to find some bugs, then twenty more to rinse, wash, repeat a few times. It will end up taking decades longer than anticipated, and somebody will likely go bankrupt (or get bailed out by the government, either or).

 

I agree, the FAA doesn't move fast and airlines still fly planes developed in the 60's. I don't think being a pilot is anymore at risk than any other job of disappearing. AI will eventually be able to write software, robots will be able to clean/cook, AI will fight wars and machines will build houses. And someday the end of the world will also come and humans will live on other planets.

 

Maybe we should start with an AI Flight Attendant (I know, that's an oxymoron) and see how that works out.

 

I for one welcome our robot overlords!

"This is horrible!"
"Unsafe!"
"We'll fight them in the streets!"
"Over my dead body!"

"Wait. They'll pay me $500 an hour to take over in case of lost link? Um...ok."

 

One thing Machine learning can do extremely well is determine if the pilot is incapacitated, and alert the company. This isn't really an issue because the ground, in conjunction with an FA, could take over. It would simply become a priority aircraft. 100% of the problem is the interaction of an AI aircraft with a conventional one. For instance, if a non AI aircraft next to you on a parallel approach overshoots the approach path, the AI will freak out. There is no way to solve this problem without banning all non AI aircraft. That is why you still need at least one pilot - for when the AI does something dumb, which will be a lot.



This is the same for if all cars were AI, and the roadways were 100% clear of all obstructions, we would already have self driving cars.

 

Having first hand knowledge/experience of how RPAs are operating both in the overseas and stateside training environments I don't see pilotless aircraft in my lifetime. Maybe my son's lifetime, but definitely not mine. RPA's were supposed to be cleared to fly in the NAS with no chase aircraft by 2015. The FAA is still dragging their feet on it. It'll be years if not decades before things get ironed out for cargo/pax carrying RPA's.

 

Hummm... Might be time to get that Remote Pilot certificate ...

 

I chuckle at all this y’all of pilotless planes-every time I see the 15 guys it takes to load and service my plane every leg.

Much less complicated work than what we do.....