Keep telling yourself that if it helps you sleep better.

 

It will not be my problem. It will be your problem.

Think grasshopper... Think.

 

Yes, but the point he was making...

- You can't *economically* retrofit old airplanes. If you disagree, go get a systems engineering degree and then back and we'll discuss.

- Airlines are major capital investments, typically amortized over 20-30 years.

Even if someone could and would build and sell an automated airliner today, nobody could afford to just swap out all the planes they have... they need to fly them for a couple decades to pay down the mortgage.

 

Could you imagine having a hydraulic failure? Running that checklist, flying the airplane, setting up the approach, communicating over the radio and configuring the aircraft for landing by yourself. Scarry

Humans are humans and being by yourself in that situation that's not going to work.

 

Yes. The only way you'll get single pilot is when the airplane is fully autonomous anyway. You'll just be a backup to the backups, until they have enough operational experience to show they don't need you, and the public will go for it.

This is all a very long way off... to make it happen rapidly would require a vast manhattan project costing Trillions of dollars, but the ROI on that is negligible by comparison. There are less than 100,000 airline pilots in the US. Nobody has an incentive to drop the coin now, certainly not the government (which would have to develop roadmaps for certification, change laws, and COMPLETELY re-engineer the ATC infrastructure).

 

Public acceptance may take decades, so in the meantime we could fool them with a curtain, sound effects, etc:

“I am Captain Oz, the great and powerful! Whooo are yooou?!

 

Cool. Ours did too.

And the result is they are near worthless.

 

Automation is infinitely scalable. So while financial planning and the legal field are taking the hits right now as it relates to AI. AI is AI so when it can figure out how to invest your money and divorce your third wife, landing in a 150kt cross wind with both wings on fire won’t be an issue.

Nobody is going out and designing a replacement pilot, they are designing a human replacement.

 

Good lord guys it’s a freaking study! You know how many “studies” the government spends money on? No joke, 20 years ago the Air Force studied “Gay Bombs,” where they would drop bombs that would spread a chemical that would make the enemy homosexual and allegedly less likely to attack. The sky isn’t falling.

How many of the next gen airliners have even hinted at being single pilot or autonomous? A whopping zero. How many airline CEOs have given serious consideration to this? Zero. The technology is simply not there to handle the multitude of emergencies that an average pilot is tasked with being ready for. Even when the technology is there, you’re talking about fielding, investments, regulation, insurance, major infrastructure ..at an international level! That takes time, not 5-10 years as people here so ignorantly think. It also takes money, which completely negates the only reason why this would make sense.

While we are still crashing drones and driverless cars, I think I’ll find some security in this job until I retire.

 

This ^^^^^^^^
Thank you.