Yes because current technology is static...no hope of improvement's in AI or any other metric...right?
Pilot's up front are gone....the only question is when.
It may take 5 or 50 years...but it is going to happen.

 

if it’s 50, nobody on this board cares.

 

https://youtu.be/piYnd_wYlT8

We are a ways off.

 

Yes, but I'll take the under on 50. Cargo trials in <10 and the first officer position eliminated (just like flight engineers) in 20-25. Very little we can do about it; but it impacts more pilots on this board than not.

 

Betting less than 50 years means nothing at the end of the day. The original Millenium Problem on proving p=np or p!=np from 1997 with a $1M bounty still has no framework. Proving that is one of the major hurdles for machine learning in general. And there are and have been many Ph.D. Mathematicians and Computer Scientists working on it this entire time. It’s gonna take a real savant to prove it, and currently it’s looking impossible. But see, whereas a human is willing to alter the boundaries of a local minima to meet the global goal, it’s hard to program a computer to know how to sacrifice the small picture to win the big picture. It’s a really interesting problem. At least with nuclear fusion there have been significant strides decade-on-decade.

also, I’m invested that we will not lose our jobs. So I’m biased. But from my previous career and academic background, I do feel that I have some authority on the matter.

 

​​Your iPhone didn't have to go through FAA certification. Since the 737 MAX debacle, the trend is toward more scrutiny. One of the rare times government (over?)regulation is helping us.

 

Jus say'in:

https://www.businessinsider.com/reli...-cessna-172-12

Anybody taking bets on when we get fully automatic Planes, Trains, Trucks, Buses or Cars first? Simultaneously? Which company will be the next Wright Brothers? I used to believe it would be after I retired from aviation but with SpaceX landing rockets in just a couple years I'm thinking the technology and certification is accelerating the timelines...

 

Not gonna happen ever! Didn't you hear there is a deadly global pandemic that will clear out the entire population unless john q public wears his government mandated mask.

There I ended the thread for you all.you are welcome.