Originally Posted by Flyguy4723

Sure, but there's a difference between thinking and critical thinking.

Originally Posted by Flyguy4723

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Originally Posted by Flyguy4723

You could have one person monitoring several flights on the ground instead of paying multiple pilots to fly those routes, that would be the financial advantage of it. Also, do you think pilot compensation and value will start to decline as computers continue to progress inside the cockpit? Pilots have to do less, therefore, they won't be paid as much and won't be as valuable a career as they once were.

Originally Posted by CrimsonEclipse

It'll happen gradually at first.
Cargo will have single pilot ops on heavier aircraft first, then acting as a backup to the advanced automation.
Once a quantifiable improvement in economics and safety is proven, the passenger sector will follow suit.
Unmanned cargo planes will be next, likely on trans pacific and or trans atlantic routes between large hubs with half of the airport dedicated to unmanned ops.

An intermediary with heavy single pilot ops would be a ground controller responsible for a group of airplanes or a sector. This person would act as a helpdesk for airplanes in distress by checking airplane vitals, assisting communication, and setting up navigation during an emergency. This will evolve to controlling multiple heavy UAV and single pilot assist over time.

So why not now? The laws and procedures need to catch up with the technology. See and avoid technologies need to be perfected, and ground procedures also need to be refined. It will also require greatly restricting general aviation in high traffic areas.

We are basically waiting on an "over the hump" moment. The instant it becomes legal AND economically viable, it will happen quick. The pebble that starts the avalanche is difficult to predict, but a pilot shortage could be one of those triggers.

So to answer the initial question: "When will pilots become extinct?"
Never, we still have horses and riders, they are not the dominant transportation species anymore. The pilot position will decline.

Some will say that the avalanche has already started.
It's too late for the pebbles to vote.

Originally Posted by JohnBurke

I've read enough.

I think you're on the ignore list. Think critically about that.



Not to be critical, but I think that's a lot better.

Originally Posted by tomgoodman

Career Extinction is a welcome new argument against becoming a pilot, because the old ones have gotten stale. Remember these whoppers?

--there aren't any good jobs
--OK there are, but nobody is hiring
--OK they are, but you have to know somebody
--they only want button-pushing automatons
--pilots are irresponsible infantile sociopaths
--you will die in a cold lonely hotel room

Originally Posted by C130driver

All it takes is one accident in this futuristic pipe dream and we are back to square one. The public isn't going to take kindly to 300+ people dead in the advent of "pilotless planes." I don't see the airlines buying this risk anytime in the next century.

Originally Posted by CrimsonEclipse

Just like one accident killed the (automated) Tesla?

Originally Posted by CrimsonEclipse

You don't understand AI, and that's ok
And the programming I referred to was specifically tested on a United 232 scenario and was successful.

Originally Posted by rickair7777

If the government really wants to get pilots out of airliners, they need to invest in extremely secure, extremely redundant (and of course extremely expensive) ground-air data links. Then you could have airliners fly themselves in cruise, but have adult supervision when things go wrong or get complicated.