American, Delta, UAL Retirement Graph
05-08-2018, 12:32 PM
#11
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2017
Posts: 177
Originally Posted by AirBear
This graph shows why you want to get competitive quals for the majors before the retirements slow down:
Big 3 Retirements by Robert Harris, on Flickr
OK, that worked. Made a fake name account on Flickr for posting photos to public message boards. Had to edit this post a number of times to get it right.
Big 3 Retirements by Robert Harris, on FlickrOK, that worked. Made a fake name account on Flickr for posting photos to public message boards. Had to edit this post a number of times to get it right.
Essentially, I’m just wondering whether as great as things are now for folks already flying 121, it’s too late if you’re just now looking to start...
05-08-2018, 04:28 PM
#12
In a land of unicorns
Joined APC: Apr 2014
Position: Whale FO
Posts: 6,486
Originally Posted by BobSacamano
Question for a pilot looking to start building time as a CFI in a few months. Assume that pilot makes it to a regional in January of 2020. Then, assume generously that this pilot is marketable to the majors 5 or 6 years later. Doesn’t that put him on the BACK end of the hiring curve, with only a few years of real movement up the list before stagnation?
Essentially, I’m just wondering whether as great as things are now for folks already flying 121, it’s too late if you’re just now looking to start...
Essentially, I’m just wondering whether as great as things are now for folks already flying 121, it’s too late if you’re just now looking to start...
05-08-2018, 07:17 PM
#13
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Dec 2017
Position: Retired NJA & AA
Posts: 1,930
Originally Posted by dera
A career at a major even when it's stagnant is still a pretty amazing career.
Now when looking way out to 2037 keep in mind by that time we may have single pilot cockpits with computers doing most the work and an autopilot that can be remotely controlled in the event of pilot incapacitation. Stuff like Frequency changes will be automatic. If this ever happens all these charts are useless.
05-11-2018, 06:24 AM
#14
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: Window seat
Posts: 5,232
Avg new hire has 5500-7500 (+/-) hrs. 4-6K after starting at a regional. That’s 4-7 yrs after getting hired at a regional with 1500 hrs.
Recent hiring data. The future might see lower TT hiring.
Recent hiring data. The future might see lower TT hiring.
Last edited by Sliceback; 05-11-2018 at 06:25 AM. Reason: Spelling
05-11-2018, 08:01 AM
#15
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2014
Posts: 273
Currently 6-8 years factoring in FO Training and CA upgrade plus vacation, sick, Wx and Mx cancelations for most pilots.
Maybe 3500 and 1000 PIC could get you picked up in a couple years as experienced RJ CA get drained. Already seeing major CA shortage at the Regional level.
Maybe 3500 and 1000 PIC could get you picked up in a couple years as experienced RJ CA get drained. Already seeing major CA shortage at the Regional level.
05-13-2020, 10:54 AM
#17
Line Holder
Joined APC: Oct 2019
Posts: 40
Originally Posted by rickair7777
2018 is a good year for retirements. 2037 will also be a good year.
The next 15 years will be great.
The next five years fantastic.
No bad news in sight, although there has to be a slowdown due to an economic downturn in there somewhere. Also always the possibility of something out of left field like a 9/11, although if Junior really swears off nukes and reconciles with RoK, that probably removes the most obvious Black Swan.
The next 15 years will be great.
The next five years fantastic.
No bad news in sight, although there has to be a slowdown due to an economic downturn in there somewhere. Also always the possibility of something out of left field like a 9/11, although if Junior really swears off nukes and reconciles with RoK, that probably removes the most obvious Black Swan.
Do you still think that next 5 years will be fantastic?
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