Douglas89

I do not know a lot about the airline industry but as someone looking to make a career change into flying I was curious to get some of yalls input. I also am far from an expert on the economy. (Just read various things)

It seems there were a few times the airline industry got hit really hard. 1973 when oil prices shot up, Dot Com crash - 9/11 and the recession of 2008. There were other recessions between 1973 and 2008 but I do not know how hard they impacted the airline industry.

I have read many different articles by various economist and many speculate we will enter into a recession in the next year or so (2019 or 2020). There is no question that we will have a recession, but WHEN will it happen. The last major recession was 2008 and they have trended to occur roughly every ten years. So it does seem we are at the time for a recession to occur.

There is a lot of conversation how the airline industry needs LOTS of pilots to fill vacancies created by the mandatory 65 retirements. My question is, if there is a recession in the next year or so, do you think there will still be a large demand for new pilots? (regardless of the economy older pilots will have to be retiring. Maybe the number of retirements will be so high that they will still outweigh a drop in demand for air travel if we do have a recession?

JayMahon

No one can predict the future. Recession impacts all industries, not just air travel.

That said, I'm changing careers to get into aviation. I've been flying since '96. I can't remember a better time to get into this industry. To be frank, I should have made this jump 2 years ago... any delay just impacts seniority and maximum income.

Flying isn't for everyone. Make sure this is the right call for you and your family. You can't predict macro economic moves down to the level of personal impact, so don't waste time worrying about it.

Excargodog

Some industries are more affected by the swings in the economy than others and the airline industry is certainly one of them. The trip to Hawaii will always be optional, the trip to the grocery store not so much. Good times are going to be better and bad times worse if you are an airline compared to a grocery store. It's as simple as that. And nothing is an absolute sure thing. You place your bet and you take your chances.

smc2020

I'm sure any recession will impact aviation, however there is still going to be long term demand for pilots. So, any effect will be short lived. I imagine there are ALOT of 500-1000 hour pilots on the market right now trying to earn there way up the food chain.

If you are worried about job loss, some sectors tend to fair better than others. Airlines furlough....almost a 100% guarantee; when you are hired during the uptick is CRITICAL. I imagine most entering the regional ranks now will find themselves on the street in 1-2 years. Someone hired 4-5 years ago who is already captain will fare well, unless they left a regional carrier and started at the bottom of someone else's seniority list.

Timing is everything....but there are some stable flying jobs out there (Part 91, Survey, Part 135, Air Ambo, federal, state, local governments).

Always have a back up plan..........

rickair7777

After deregulation in 1978 it took 30 years and several economic cycles for the airlines to adapt to the new realities.

They are in good shape now, and will likely weather any reasonable recession with minor adjustments... might not even furlough pilots since the retirements will march on regardless.

Of course something out of left field could have deeper ramifications, but that would impact most other industries as well.

Douglas89

I appreciate everyone's input. The construction industry is one that is heavily influenced by the economy. I am a project manager and we manage bond programs for school districts in Texas. ( An Owner's Rep.)

The Houston, Texas area is pretty unique with its economy. Well, Texas as a whole is really. There are large amounts of people moving to Houston (Austin, DFW, San Antonio) each year. Though a large part of the Houston economy is oil. So when oil drops there are massive lay offs.

There was a demographic presentation at the last board meeting and the amount of new schools that will be needed in the next 10 years (Just at the school district where I manage work) is staggering.

However a recession could slow down this work, as new schools are fueled by new home developments. If the economy tanks, less homes will be built, hence less new families moving into those areas.

I try to always keep things in perspective. I know there are many people out there that would love my job. I make decent money, insurance, 401K, food, not living pay check to pay check, etc. What more could you want? Well, I guess that is where I turn to Maslow's Hierarchy of needs.


Ultimately, my first step is to get my PPL and re-evaluate whether I still believe this would be a good career path for me. (Do I really want to pursue flying). I can say this definitively, I can not imagine working my current job or one similar for the next 30ish years.


Thank you all your advice.

bryris

Just remember, a job is a job. It may not seem this way now, but you will tire of flying in time. If that happens 5 years in, you'll have 20 years of not being able to imagine another 20 years.

Whatever you do, you make it work. Work to live, don't live to work.

If you are still south of your private pilot license, no need to think about any of this. You've got a long way to go before a decision to fly for a living or not is upon you.

JohnBurke

Aviation is a leading economic indicator. With the exception of the 250 hour wonders and those who are in the current climate of rapid progression into their careers, most have been through multiple cycles, downturns, furloughs, closures, downsizings, etc, and know what it's like. It will happen again.

When the economy takes a significant downturn (and it will in the not too distant future), there will be large scale furloughs. Flight departments will close. Flight schools will scale back. People will drop out of aviation, as always happens. Those in the lower seniority will be looking for work, and won't find it.

We're overdue. Expect it soon.

SonicFlyer

It's my understanding that anyone above the 10% seniority level is safe from furlough. Does that sound right?

GuardPolice

I’ve heard values ranging from 10 to 20%. That’s just basic cocktail napkin math from the industry’s history.


GP