Probability of ULCC from SE Turbine?
03-11-2024, 03:38 AM
#11
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2024
Posts: 140
Originally Posted by kaputt
In your experience, are we looking at 2016-2019 levels of competitiveness, or something more?
But there are some encouraging fundamentals at play
1) the hiring slowdown isn't for lack of customers, it's for lack of airplanes.
2) The industry will have historically significant retirements for many more years
3) The 50 seat RJ's have one foot in the grave and AA/DL/UA are all scoped out on large RJ's. (ie industry growth must occur at mainline)
4) The slowdown weakens the case for age 67
There's been a lot of crazy things going on - people getting hired from a 172 into an Airbus, regionals poaching each others FO's, etc. First thing to stop is the crazy.
My guess (and again see my first statement) is the market moves towards something that looks reasonable and sustainable for employers and employees over decades. A steady progression in responsibility and pay with a relatively clear path toward a destination job. My guess is that means you the next stop from right seat C172 isn't right seat E175, you don't usually get hired to a major without TPIC, and certain positions (eg LCA) can become reasonable career choices at a regional.
03-11-2024, 08:15 AM
#12
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,289
Originally Posted by kaputt
In your experience, are we looking at 2016-2019 levels of competitiveness, or something more?
I was just really getting invovled in flight training those years while finishing up time in the military and recall that regional hiring for FO's was steady but the expectation was that upgrading to Captain was important/required. Those getting hired at majors needed good app reviews, maybe some volunteer experience, and some 121 PIC at the minimum. At the time the industry and hiring outlook seemed better than it had been in a very long time, and only looks stiff when compared to the post COVID recovery boom we just witnessed.
If we're going back to 2016-2019 type environment, it's probably not all that bad. If were going back to needing moon landings or SpaceX Crew Dragon time, that's not so good.
I was just really getting invovled in flight training those years while finishing up time in the military and recall that regional hiring for FO's was steady but the expectation was that upgrading to Captain was important/required. Those getting hired at majors needed good app reviews, maybe some volunteer experience, and some 121 PIC at the minimum. At the time the industry and hiring outlook seemed better than it had been in a very long time, and only looks stiff when compared to the post COVID recovery boom we just witnessed.
If we're going back to 2016-2019 type environment, it's probably not all that bad. If were going back to needing moon landings or SpaceX Crew Dragon time, that's not so good.
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