Dont want to start an argument but I have friends that are newhires or waiting on a class at fedex. They’re pretty concerned with the company performance. One said they combined a class and may stop for the rest of the year.

Dont know if If hop the purple train right now.

Yeah, they only made $745M in net income last quarter, the wheels are really coming off the train.

Exactly what I thought someone would say.

They’re expecting a tough road in 2020 15-20% hit. Plus earlier this year their fiscal 4th qtr was a loss of 1.97B (thats with a B)

Breaking from AMZ was a good move, one that UPS cant sustain. I just wouldn’t be on they bottom on their seniority list for the next couple years. Actually as for as that goes I probably wouldn’t do brown either.

Amazon is going to hit this market HARD over the next 5yrs and it will he done with ACMI and contract labor on the ground and in the air. Unless something changes I just dont see any silver lining.

Thinking about Cargo? - A Contract Comparison
 

The FedEx Q4’19 loss was due to a non-cash pension mark-to-market of $3.9B; operating income was $1.32B in Q4’19.

Curious on statement "UPS cant sustain". Sustain shipping low yield net Amazon volume? The low profit volume?
FedEx works on higher yield volume as is their market, same for UPS. Business to business, pharmaceuticals, customs express shipment internationally. Is Amazon taking over those high yield lanes to Asia and Europe soon? Maybe they will take over the US long term, but doubtful China and India will allow Amazon in their markets as they do in North America. UPS, FedEx and DHL premium markets will survive IMO.

Is there many captains at any of the majors that would leave for FedeX or UPS. I know some who have left JetBlue and Spirit as 5 year plus captains for both. Would be curious on the sentiment of people on a move like that. In the long run It pays off for sure.

Many non factual statements. While Purple will be just fine, yes, short term pain will happen and seniority progression will slow a bit.

Brown? I believe you are wrong. Having a smaller fleet, there is little room to shrink, especially when your money maker is the faster products, as evidenced by the last few 10Q’s. Because we are a smaller flight fleet, we have been playing catch up for a while. Still have 30+ net new airplanes coming in the next 3 years, plus averaging 100+ mandatory retirements per year (not counting early outs), the math is easy to see. Fedex staffs their airline different, they like more pilots per plane (good for them!!). UPS staffs bare bones. I believe seniority progression short to medium term will be slightly better at Brown for these reasons, long term (5+ years) is anyone’s guess.

My biggest concern with either Brown or Purple sustaining revenue growth. It has been 5%+ per year for the last decade, don’t know how long that can be sustained even with e-commerce growth. Purple did have an acquisition push, non organic revenue growth (TNT), skewing somewhat the numbers.

The amount of money a company makes is a pointless number. What matters is the ROI, or how much money is earned compared to how much was invested.
I don’t have the time to look up this ROI, but I imagine it’s not very much. An airline the size of FedEx would run through $175m in the blink of an eye.

Here is a recent report:

https://csimarket.com/stocks/FDX-Ret...tment-ROI.html

0.93% for for the quarter??? That’s pretty bad.

Per the 10-Q, FDX had an operating margin of 5.7% for Q1’FY20.

Apparently, everyone else did worse. Read lower down where it gives FDX’s industry & sector ranking: #1.

Doesn’t matter. If I’m an investor I am pulling out of that sector.

This topic brings out lots of sensitivity in people. The numbers don't lie.

Im not saying FDX or UPS are bad companies. Im saying that neither are making their financial forecast. The cargo market is changing extremely fast. Not to mention one of the new players can rival gov level power.

My comment on UPS: I know they’re telling ppl in indoc that the airside is limited to 3%. Ground is another story. I think FDX telling Amazon to pound sand is a brave move. Why would you continue to fly for a competitor unless you simply couldn’t afford to bail.

I dont know what your seeing but Im looking out over a ramp backed by the largest consumer powerhouse in the world. Its a ramp thats growing extremely fast with no limits. Its also being filled with ACMI companies willing to do the job for less and for lower wages than brown or purple. On a personal note Im stuck. I wouldn’t go sit on the bottom of a prp or brn seniority list and Im not wanting to do pax. This is home for now.

UPS beat earnings projections last quarter, and had 30% growth in Next Day Air volume (note: Amazon is typically Second Day Air). They have repeatedly affirmed EPS guidance of $7.45-7.75.

Also, it is widely reported Amazon is 10% of total UPS volume and 5% of total revenue; who knows if that’s accurate or not, Atlanta isn’t telling.

UPS just announced a high nine-figure additional investment in SDF, and has roughly thirty more factory-new growth airframes to take delivery of in the next three years including fifteen 747-8s.

None of that sounds like the actions of a struggling logistics company...

What he said. I’m pretty sure just the -8 order equals more capacity than every jet Amazon has on order. Add in the steady trickle of new 76s and it appears that management sees a lot of money to be made. Only time will tell, but I’m betting that I’ll be happy with my choice when I retire with a pension and a fat B plan.

Point of order: Amazon has exactly zero “jets on order”.

🤷🏼*♂️ Potato 🥔

Lemme put that another way...

This company, which allegedly represents a clear and present danger to the duopoly, owns no aircraft and has no orders for new or used aircraft...but rather has short/medium term leases on airframes and selects CMI carriers to operate them on short/medium term contracts.

And some of those CMI carriers have major labor issues, making staffing and operating these airframes problematic.

Combine these Prime Air realities with widely the reported reliability issues of Amazon’s in-house last mile delivery and I believe the “threat” is exaggerated.

Aircraft orders don’t mean much and have been cancelled in the past.
I’m not saying the sky is falling. Just that I’ve seen cycles before. Cargo is hit before pax.

Investors look at much more than ROI, only a single metric. Many metrics impact investors. How long are they in market, for what purpose? Dividends?, Are they shorting the investment?.... ROI is one of a hundred elements that affect investors plans. Large institutional investors different than small investors, individual investors etc.
Sears was the original Amazon. They just used catalogs. All companies can go out of business. UPS and FedEx have always sought markets outside of Amazon current residential market. Amazon wont own India or China. Impressive gains, but some reality is overlooked in the dreamy Amazon world.
UPS and FedEx could start a website to compete with Amazon, they don't want too, but at some point, they could. They already own the IT and the air/ground infrastructure and world wide access. Not a far stretch. Other corporations are responding to reclaim market loss from amazon. They are ripe for competition themselves. Amazon isn't omnipotent.

I don’t disagree. However, the $175M in earnings is not really very much when compared to how much was invested to get that.

Where did you get $175M in earnings?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...e5055f1fdd.jpg

Either way, Amazon is a threat that you need to keep eyes on

This same thing happened Q4 of FY15. I'd say tell your friends that these things happen at Purple and the industry at large. Always have, always will.
If they continue to be concerned, maybe Purple isn't for them and they should go to the reliably stable legacy carriers.

Looks like you can unpin this post. The pilotcontracts.org domain is not connected to any web site.

Still nada

Same, still down.