Here are some guesses to work with until something better comes along.

747-400's number 4 and 5 start service in May. Numbers 6 and 7 start service in August (and will be manned by the pilots from the recent system bid).

Numbers 8, 9, and 10 start service in late October and November, and will be manned by the next Realignment Vacancy Bid, probably posted 16 June with an effective date of 2 November. I was told at one time that the June bid will provide manning for 2 more -400's (numbers 8 and 9). However, another bit of information shows 3 more -400's starting service (numbers 8, 9 and 10) that would need crews from the June bid, so maybe that information has changed and the bid will man for 3 more -400's. Or maybe my delivery information is wrong, and the bid will only be manning for deliveries 8 and 9, with deliveries 10 and 11 being manned later in a fall bid.

With that in mind, the next system bid could call for 20-30 CPT and 30-45 FO original 747-400 vacancies. All but a few of the CPT vacancies will be taken by the senior FO's that went to the 747-400 this last bid, resulting in 17-27 recurring -400 vacancies.

A few recurring CPT vacancies resulting from CPT bidders from other fleets going to the -400 will be in turn taken by senior over-60 bidders who will either vacate an FE seat, or an FO seat they just took in ANC or MD11 SDF.

This would result in about 47 to 75 total 747-400 FO original and recurring vacancies. There are just 6 over-60 FE's who had a bid in that did not get -400 FO this last bid, who may go there next bid. Finally, there could be a very small number of other vacancies, but I am very pessimistic about that.

I don't think manpower planning ever knows until the last weeks exactly what will be in the bid, as they seem to be constantly updating the need.

Following the Realignment Vacancy bid, there will be a Displacement Bid, and 22 CPT, 30 FO, and 5 FE 747-Classic pilots (a total of 57) will be displaced to front seats.

Combining the 57 displacements from the Classic and the 47 to 75 ANC -400 FO vacancies could result in either some more FO's going to FE, or some of the FE's that were just sent to the DC8 to be able to bid out to the 747-400.

Finally, this next bid will reportedly man for deliveries 8 and 9, or deliveries 8, 9 and 10. I have been told delivery number 11 comes early in 2009, and numbers 12 and 13 come late in 2009. Thus a fall bid would man for either delivery number 11, or numbers 10 and 11.

To add to the confusion, what if they start displacing DC8 front seaters? All this uncertainty seems to be a good indication why no list has been published, and cause to wait and see what really happens.

Use these numbers at your own risk....

Thanks for the info, Roberto. It's better than anything I've got so far.

My head is spinning with all those numbers could be that after all the shuffling, reshuffling, and rereshuffling maybe they will be hope for the poolies?

Roberto gave a good , but very brief synopsis, he touched on delivery schedules, but kindly did not discuss market plannings effects on pilot requirments. That would be a page summary. In short. UPS moves aircraft around to serve market needs every bid (see bid summary of bid package) Fact is, they change after publication. The bid summary was a snapshot before publication. Just because you switch a 757 to an A-300, crew requirments often change because of the scheduling/follow through routing.
They have no clue what they will see in two to three months, especially in current business market. Reason they blunder because they want to do it always on the short end of the pilot requirments. It contributes to our job security though.

Thanks, Roberto, I managed to follow most of what you wrote. Just like the military, I'll believe it when I see it, and only trust good deal orders when I am 4 months into them (this is not exactly a 'good deal,' but the 4 month part at least applies, IMHO). With that said, I am about 180-190 from the bottom in the overall seniority, and about 10 from the bottom in ONT and junior everywhere else. Anyone want to look at part shares in a floatplane next year? Fishing will be great! Hali steaks and IPAs.

I should have added, but it is probably obvious, that a lot (like 57, the number of Classic displacements that can go to the front seat) of the most junior FO's in the lower 48 will probably be displaced to ANC or FE, their choice...

Another wild card is that when the Realignment Vacancy bid closes (late June), there will still be 3 DC8 FE classes (August, September, October) that have not started, with a total of 19 FO's that were displaced from FO to FE this last bid. Of these, 13 will still be on probation, and 6 will be able to bid. And, if you needed more confusion, 10 of the FO to FE displacements in earlier classes will be off probation, and able to bid. What a mess!

How many DC-8's are left, and does anyone know if there is an official schedule for fleet reduction? I have heard that they are parking them earlier (faster) than originally planned.

Thanks!

We started the year with 38, we are down to 35 now. According to storage schedule, we will lose 2 more in May, 4 in June, and 1 in July. That will have us down to 28 at the end of July.

Thanks for all the info!

Heard from an 8 guy the last will leave in 2013. Don't know how many will leave per year until then though.