I think you are way off base. My guess is they will still need the poolies to fill the last HKG positions. Now, if they fix the LOA ($4000-5000/mo) I think you are right and they will fill the HKG domicile without the poolies.

 

I think FedEx/Kinko's just received a print order for a bunch of Richard Gere "Get out of a Chinese jail almost free" cards. Not sure I see the "wisdom" of giving the ChiComs some amazing leverage over FedEx's Pacific Rim operations by stationing our entire pilot force on their soil. "Just in time" product shipments need more than "just in time" jets & crews. Hope no more EP-3s get forced down anytime soon; but hey, I'm sure there's a cute Japanese word somewhere that describes the process we're muddling through.

 

I guess time will tell.......

 

don't count on any newhires for about 3-4 yrs....told they could siba the FO seat and i think there will be an LOA enhancement soon...i do think more will bid it...bid next week or so

 

Boycaptian--you seem to have good intel quite a bit. What does it take to get you to use a shift key?

I got off the phone tonight with Cloudsailor, and we discussed a similar timeline. Hope I'm wrong, but best to plan for the short term and hope you get a "bonus call" than overlook opportunities in front of you hoping things will be different.

Any other poolies treading water--I'm sorry I haven't heard any good news. If you are looking for a job right now, Emirates, World, and Netjets are all hiring. Might be a good time to get that master's degree or law school application, or even buying that sailboat and taking a year long cruise around the Carribean. It "ain't" a good time to be sitting around in an airline pool...

 

Do we think the FDA was cancelled because they couldn't fill the FO seats?

I'm not inclined to think so.

I think it has to do with the drastic decline in the dollar and the additional capital investments FEDEX was going to have to make (initially in dollars) ....and the declining access to cheap credit markets that are affecting many other airlines and corporations.

I assume we charge our European customers in Euro's and a majority of our day-to-day ops expenses are in Euro's making the currency risk in that aspect "a wash".

But, bringing in FDX pilots under the current LOA was actually a "good deal" for the company as we were the cheap imported foregin labor --- i.e. we would help generate revenue in higher valued euros, but be paid in lower valued dollars.

Repatriating euro-based profits back to a US dollar denominated balance sheet is also a "win" for the company once the Paris FDA is up and running.

The downside in the current currency/credit market is the higher costs now associated with converting US dollars to euros to pay the up front costs associated with opening the FDAs --- more equipment, more hangar space, more spare parts --- etc, etc.

When the dollar regains value, and our credit markets gain more liquidity, I believe it will make it easier for FDX to make those initial capital investments and open the Paris domicile.

(Note: With a relatively fixed exchange rate between the US dollar and the Hong Kong $ and the Chinese currency, this is not a factor in the HKG domicile)

...just my current 2 yens worth.

 

...or maybe we just don't have enough 757s ready for a while...

 

DLax85....I like the way you think! Nice anaylisis.....my point exactly in the opening of this thread, except I still believe that the situation was exacerbated by the reluctance of FO's bidding the seats. It is a known fact that in terms of potential solutions, hiring was the least desired outcome. So with costs already escalating from the factors you so aptly pointed out in your post, having to hire off the street may have been the straw that broke the camels back.

 

DLax and Albie,
I think it's got to be a combination of the two, plus a lot more. I get the sense they want the 727 gone faster than planned with oil prices so high. They can only do this by bringing the already lacking 75s to the domestic market. I heard another crew bus rumor that the guy who makes the fleet decisions, AG, I believe, says the 75 doesn't make that much of a difference over the Bus in Paris. If that's the case it makes sense to put off the domicile regardless of who bid it. I think only two seats went unfilled.

 

And Albie, thanks for making the sacrifices to do the ALPA work. It is greatly appreciated and you give us hope.

If you do that job as well as you prepared me for my interview, we'll be set.