LAG pretty much summed up what I was going to say. If a bid closed tomorrow, the first pilots wouldn't be cranked out until late August/early September at the earliest. That's assuming that all of the training letters are presently exhausted(haven't looked). Realistically things are going to longer than that, especially since the company still prefers the 'big bid' method, so it just doesn't seem like they're going to crank out that many people before peak. I think they largely plan on doing it with draft/vlt/makeup/line optimization with a measure of creative fleet utilization as well. They can pretty much mix and match all the fleets domestically to get the job done and they now have two long haul fleets to do so internationally, plus 3 fleets in Europe soon. Not saying it'll be pretty or how any of us would have planned it, but.....

 

Let us hope that they don't get this FDA deal absent a new contract.

 

Absolutely - it's when people don't pick up DFT that manning becomes an issue. Right now the company has perfected it - heck we've got posts up here about how DFT is avail for anyone (which of course it is) now that 4a2b is over. You don't think there are a ton of guys just hoping for peak with this manning so they have the opportunity to get drafted left and right? No need for a bid unless we have FDAs opening up.

 

You don't suppose that the timing of a bid(upgrades) and, dare I say, hiring would have anything to do with contract negotiations, do you? It seems like we're always upgrading and hiring each time we try to negotiate a contract. Always seems to coincide we an widespread amnesia epidemic.

I'm sure it's all just coincidental. But, I do like to think management makes every decision based on the psychological effect it will have on us.

Or...It could just be that they're putting the finishing touches on the plan for next year, and the bean counters haven't told them what to do, yet. No, that's crazy talk. Let's stick with the conspiracy!!

 

We're not even at openers yet, so I sincerely doubt that will be the case. The only way that has a chance of happening imo, is if a bunch of people get standing resolutions passed in their councils directing them not to negotiate a new FDA absent a contract. For once, I'll leave my opinion on whether or not I think that's a good idea out of it.

 

Cologne LOA.........?

Do you folks REALLY think that they are going to wave anything more than what they offered us for HKG for this base?

-Why would they give us anything at all?

[Devils Advocate]: They COULD simply go to the hiring pool and offer the RJ kids in there a Fedex seniority number if they are willing to go to the lowest seniority base in the system, which would certainly be Cologne if they weren't going to give ANYTHING at all. No move, no tax equalization, no housing allowance....nothing. You get your magic purple seniority number NOW, but you're probably going to Germany for 3-5 years.

-Do you folks REALLY think that they couldn't fill Cologne, or, for what it is worth....HKG with highly-experienced warm bodies if they did this? Bear in mind that places like Atlas, Polar, Kalitta, and Southern Air have hundreds of pilots who have probably spent more time in the past 5 years flying around the globe than the most senior 1500 pilots at Fedex have~

Hmm. It occurs to me that fighting for LOA's is akin to Don Quixote tilting at windmills...

 

It's not the Don Quixotes you have to worry about, it's the Sancho Panzas.

 

HireAstar,

While I agree that there are tons of experienced pilots available for hire, I don't think Fedex wants to bring on any more people until they absolutely positively have to. They would prefer to be lean and use draft when they have to.

CGN base: I think it is an easy fill, even at narrowbody pay. There may be a few FO spots available, but they could use Mem FOs (like they are doing in ANC) for shortfalls.

HKG base: Another tough fill. Captains will be easy, but FOs a little harder. With so many excessed pilots (now 727SOs), I still think they will come close to filling spots.

If I understand correctly, our FDA's are for HKG and CDG. I think a deal will have to be negotiated for CGN. I'm probably wrong, but that seems how I remember it......

 

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Look at the HKG seniority list. There are at least 15-20 guys below the last guy who was excessed. Meaning everyone who was excessed and wanted to go to HKG already bid it and has gone.

The only way they get FOs in HKG is to either put a gun to the junior SOs, hire off the street or sweeten the pot. Disclaimer; there may be some guys willing to fly the MD-11 in HKG over the Airbus, but I can't see 40 of them.

 

The current FDA LOA is specifically for HKG and CDG. However, the company can open an FDA anywhere they want under Sec. 6 of the CBA, without any additional LOA.

I'm not saying that's what they'll do...Just that they can.