Quote:
Originally Posted by Busboy
Explain the lower career earnings potential, please. Unless you're thinking that the single(blended) rate would be lower than our wide body rate.
Of course this is the single pay rate argument, so it could get pretty involved and pretty heated, but without specific numbers to support the math, neither side can prove their position. Since we don't have those numbers, I'm only expressing my opinion and gut feeling.
But it's clear today that with a number of "steps" from the entry level (today it's the narrow-body back seat, but for the sake of this discussion let's make it the narrow-body right seat) to the top level, the wide-body Captain. The two important steps we look at currently are the left seats of the narrow-body and the wide-body. But given that the gaps between those steps are not huge, we have a lot of people who park on a step lower than they can hold to enjoy a "senior in my seat" slice of quality of life. They delay moving up for the sake of lifestyle, but they often make similar income by creative bidding afforded to senior folks.
Ignoring the Second Officer seat, we have 4 steps. Compensation in the form of pay and retirement contributions are based on which step you're on, and the time value of the retirement contributions is greatly multiplied by reaching a step sooner rather than later.
Switching to two steps would -- I BELIEVE -- significantly alter bidding behavior in terms of "parking" on a lower step to enjoy quality of life. The gap between the two steps will obviously be bigger than the gaps we have now, so it would be far more difficult to make up the difference with creative bidding. Consequently, even with the number of Narrow-body Captain seats moving that step to the left on the time-line, I think bidding behaviors will keep it well to the right. The time to Captain (narrow-body or widebody) under a single pay rate system would -- in my opinion -- be roughly the same as the time to wide-body Captain under our current system, because fewer people will delay their upgrade, meaning fewer people will be able to take advantage of early upgrades.
We saw the same behavior change after the wave of excess bids and 4.A.2.b. People became much more reluctant to delay their upgrade "until the next bid" so they could enjoy seat seniority. More people are upgrading at their first opportunity than before.
I'm a wide-body Captain -- it might not affect me (until the next great excess -- I already experienced the downbid once). But for junior guys, and especially new hires, I don't think it's the optimum way to fund a retirement and calculate a paycheck.
Is there a set of numbers that could prove otherwise? Sure. Hypothetically, those hypothetical numbers chould be distributed over 4 steps to support my view, too. Like I said, neither position can be proven conclusively.
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