I'm not quite sure what you're saying here. For most FOs the test will be a simple seniority test - if this excess runs anything like the last excess. For example, say you're a mid-seniority MEM-11 FO, around 3800 seniority number. You will, most likely, be able to bid to relieve the excess and pick HKG CA on your bid - you must also pick the other widebody captain slots at 100%. You, most likely, won't be able to hold any widebody Captain slots, CANNOT get awarded the HKG CA position and will get FEPP. You will get FEPP based on the settlement - roughly 8 pilots/month on the virtual training. So if 100 guys get on the virtual training and you're at the very end it would take about a year to get it. Say you're a 10 yr guy getting $172/hr at FO pay, when you "virtual activate" 1 yr later you're now getting $250/hr - nice differential.

Now there are already a TON of guys that have been getting FEPP for sometime (see the lists on the ALPA website) - when and if it comes time to actually award HKG CA to someone, it goes in seniority - all those guys senior to you are more likely to take the position since they've been getting that pay for much longer and have more to "lose" if they have to pay it back. Some guys have been getting it as far back as 2010 -say the company decides to excess or build a vacancy in HKG, those guys that have been getting $70k/yr for 3 years are probably not going to turn it down.

Will you ever even have the opportunity to get awarded HKG CA before a domestic widebody CA? Seeing how there is now a long line of people to go to HKG CA - it is a very senior position now because of the pay. However you can very much receive FEPP and remain in your current position - don't trust me, do your homework. Check out the two published lists (there's one more unpublished) and see who is on it, who is still not eligible for any widebody CA and see where they are - see how long they've been getting it

Why exactly 4a2b would say not to do it is beyond me. Yeah you have to think it out and do your homework and if you're a very senior FO close to holding widebody CA there's a bit of a gamble but worst case you save the money and pay it back, pocketing the interest, when you get awarded HKG CA.

What am I missing TonyC or Albie?

Be advised, those lists are not an up to date look at who is receiving fepp. There are many that are on that list who are now in wb capt seats, as well as some that later bid off of the list to keep from being sent to hkg and a few that have had to either pay it back or moved there. I am on the list but bid off prior to ever receiving any pay.

Just throwing out the KISS theory is all. What interest rate are you getting? If you are bidding for money with no intention of going, go for it and I hope it works to your benefit.

Excess bids are weird. FEPP is getting a lot of questions--suggest you go through union to get "right" answer. My Aviation Management, not law degree means I ask the experts. My understanding is to keep FEPP you must bid every equal pay rate (that's WB Capt) at 100%, so a junior captain could theoretically bid off for Q of Life and be "awarded" FEPP (I think). However, his/her standing bid would then have to have all WB captain spots at 100%. So, odds are with any vacancy bid they would then go right BACK to junior WB captain. Since there is a vacancy bid that will overlap this that would probably put most of those guys right back into the same spot, and any "excess" slot created would then be filled with a "vacancy".

Something nobody has mentioned that was all the rage in 08 is the relocation package. There are issues--the price you will get if you take the package is based on 120 days sale price--but with the market ticking up this could allow a few pilots to move MEM-LA, LA-ANC, ANC-MEM etc and sell out their homes.

We cast a lot of stones on these boards, but the fact is managing this many bodies has got to get tough at times. That said, prolly a good time for guys to review their contracts and ask the detailed questions to the experts. Excess bids create a lot of angst and pain. They can also be an opportunity for a change, if you are in a position to take advantage of the changes.

That is all the people currently on the 727 seniority list. Those that already have a WB slot and are getting passover pay will still be leaving the jet and bumping somebody somewhere, even if they don't technically have to bid. Come July 1st, there will be 177 (minus old geezers) bodies getting absorbed throughout the system.

We all knew an excess bid would come out eventually for the B727, and here it is. Also what we should not forget is that the B767 bid will shortly follow allowing for forward movement into a new jet. As I see it, the company just wants to plug 72 guys into a training date before the 76 bid so that they don't have a repeat of the DC10 guys sitting at home for a year without turning a wheel. I don't see this excess as a "Sky's falling" type thing. I think we are still stung from the previous excess so guys are getting emotional.

For guys/gals at the bottom --

Looks like at least 27 of the SO's are >65 so my total is 150. Added to the -67 from other seats, the total excess is -217.

If you are 217 or less from the bottom, not counting people junior to you at the FDAs, you might receive an involuntary MEM 757 FO award. It really doesn't matter the minus in your seat, crew members bidding to relieve forces you to consider the total number being excessed vs. your overall seniority to judge one's absolute risk of being excessed.

Where are 217 people going to go? If a large number pile into your seat then your -35, -15 or -10 can easily go over 100.

If someone sees an error in this methodology, please help out.

No errors, but you have to realize that a new bid is coming out this week.

It will have new positions in the seats of some aircraft, and the 767 seats.

The issue is - will the new bid have more or less seats in play than the excess bid?

If more - we'll keep hiring. If less - 4a2b here we come.

Looking at the fleet plan, I'm guessing the same number of seats or maybe a little more when this all shakes out. Two more 777's mean almost 60 positions. And we've had a fair amount of retiring since the 5th anniversary of Age 65 last December.

I wonder how many old coots will retire so their recently hired child has less of a chance of being excessed?

My guess.....none, zero, zilch, or nada. However, some of the 727 Capts approaching 65 might let themselves be excessed (that makes them train in inverse seniority order, as opposed to bidding to excess which trains in seniority order). They then get Ave BLG until they finish training in their new jet. Of course, as the training date approaches, that darn prostate starts to kick up a fuss. I know, very remote....but it could happen :)